Wednesday, November 07, 2007

NFL midseason playoff predictions

AFC

1. New England Patriots (16-0)
This one is pretty self-explanitory. They have a pretty manageable schedule the rest of the way, although they do have a date with Pittsburgh in Foxborough on Dec. 9th and then a game at the Meadowlands against the Giants in the final week of the season. However, I cannot see anyone ruining New England's bid for an undefeated campaign. Tom Brady is simply playing at another level and is on pace to shatter Peyton Manning's single-season touchdown mark, and Randy Moss has a good shot at breaking Jerry Rice's single-season receiving touchdown record. The defense clamps down late in games, as we witnessed this past week against the Colts, and Brady will always come through in the clutch no matter what, also evidenced in their last game. To contrast this year's Patriots' team with last season's, take a look at this nugget: Reche Caldwell was the squad's number one receiver last year. This year? He was cut before the season started, and New England's number three receiver, Wes Welker, has as many receptions (61) and more touchdowns (seven) than Caldwell had all of last season. So, good luck to everyone in trying to beat this team in the playoffs. I just don't see it happening.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3)
The Steelers have proven that their 8-8 campaign last year was a mere anomaly. Pittsburgh is back, much due in part to the fact that Ben Roethlisberger is 100% and playing the way he did back in the 2005-06 season when he led his team to a Super Bowl title. He has thrown 20 touchdowns compared to six interceptions and has posted a quarterback rating of 111.9 through eight games. The running game has also been phenomenal, with Willie Parker among the league leaders in rushing yards. Most importantly, the Steeler defense is darn near impenetrable once again, and after the show it put on the other night against Baltimore, one must be inclined to say that this team will be a force to be reckoned with in the postseason. Pittsburgh has a very easy schedule the rest of the way and, unlike the Colts, does not have to deal with the rest of the AFC South, although they do play Jacksonville at home on Dec. 16th. The Steelers may be the only AFC team capable of beating the patriots.

3. Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
They may have cost themselves potential home-field advantage in the playoffs with that loss to New England, and now they have to worry about fending off the charging Titans for the division title. The schedule doesn't get much easier for Indianapolis, as they have to travel to San Diego to play a desperate Chargers' team this Sunday and have games remaining against the Jaguars and Tennessee at home and a game on the road against the Ravens. Each and every one of those teams will be fighting for their playoff lives, as even the 6-2 Titans are no sure thing for the postseason in the deep AFC. This will make things difficult for the Colts down the stretch, and I can see them finishing 4-4 in their final eight games. They key for them is to simply hold on and beat the teams they should (Kansas City, Oakland, Atlanta, Houston) and they should be okay. Their chances in the playoffs? I don't like them too much with the Patriots and Steelers in the same conference.

4. San Diego Chargers (10-6)
They were already lucky enough to be playing in the NFL's second-worst division (only the NFC West is worse). They get even luckier now that the Chiefs, the only team with a realistic shot at beating them out for the AFC West crown, may have lost Larry Johnson for the season. Still, San Diego has a lot to be worrying about right now. They just gave up 296 yards to a rookie in Adrian Peterson (I don't care how good he is; you just can't do that) and 35 points to his Vikings. If Minnesota nearly dropped 40 on them, how in the world are the Chargers going to fare against playoff teams? They have a big meeting with the Colts at home this week, and I do think they will win that one being that they really, really need it. They then have games at Jacksonville, Kansas City (always a tough place to win whether the Chiefs have Johnson or not), and Tennessee, and they have to play the Ravens and Lions at home. I think there is enough talent here for them to be able to pull it out, but don't expect much out of them in the postseason.

5. Tennessee Titans (10-6)
The Titans are going to be one of the more dangerous wild card teams in recent memory. They have a very stingy defense and an extremely versatile quarterback, not to mention a fine ground game, as LenDale White has come into his own. They have a huge meeting coming up at home with the Jaguars this week, but considering they beat the Jags in Jacksonville the first week of the season, I can't see Tennessee winning this one. I just don't see them sweeping a division rival that's that talented. However, things get a little easier for them after that, as they play Denver and Cincinnati, albeit on the road, two games they should win. They are then home for Houston, and that's when things get tougher, as they play the Chargers at home and then go to Kansas City. The Titans then finish the season at Indianapolis. All they need to do is go .500 in that span, and that should lock them up the fifth seed. Expect them to give their first-round opponent fits.

6. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)
The Jaguars are again going through another season with the potential to be foiled by injuries, as David Garrard is still out for another few weeks with a bad ankle. Quinn Gray has not been good (at all) filling in, posting a 57.4 quarterback rating and completing under 50% of his passes. However, the running game and the defense should be enough to carry Jacksonville to a playoff berth. When Garrard returns, the Jags will be that much more dangerous, and I think they just beat out the Browns for the sixth and final postseason spot in the AFC. How scary they will be in the playoffs completely depends on how healthy Garrard is. Losing Marcus Stroud for four games due to a steroid suspension shouldn't hurt this team that much as they still have big John Henderson in the middle, but it could spell the end of their season at the same time. They are so many ifs with this team it's ridiculous, and their schedule doesn't make things any easier for them. They are at Tennessee this weekend, and after home games against the Chargers and Bills (anything but a pushover team), they travel to Indianapolis and then to Pittsburgh two weeks later.

On the outside looking in: Cleveland Browns
The Browns have been the feel-good story of the AFC this year, as quarterback Derek Anderson is putting up MVP-type numbers and Braylon Edwards has developed into one of the best receivers in the league. However, the fact that they have to play at Pittsburgh and at Baltimore in the stretch run pretty much takes them out of the equation. The Steelers smoked them on opening day in Cleveland, and I don't see why things will be any different this time around, especially on the road. The Browns were able to top the Ravens earlier in the year, but Baltimore will be desperate and playing on their home field, so I think the Ravens will beat them as well. You can't deny the fact that Cleveland is no joke though, and as long as Anderson can maintain what he's doing, the Browns will be a contender in the AFC for many years.

NFC

1. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
Their week two win over the Giants gives them the tiebreaker if both teams go 12-4, which I think will happen, so Green Bay gets the one-seed. Brett Favre may very well be the MVP of the league, as he is doing it with much less talent around him than Tom Brady. Most importantly for the Packers, their defense has been very good, as they have arguably the best cornerback duo in the NFL with Charles Woodson and Al Harris. Green Bay has a pretty easy schedule from here on out, as they are home against Minnesota and Carolina the next two weeks and also play Oakland at home and St. Louis on the road. They do have to play the Lions twice, though, and have a date at Dallas on Nov. 29th. The Pack also has one game left against the Bears in Chicago, always a tough team to play on their home field. Despite the fact that I think they will get the number one seed, I don't think this is the best team in the conference.

2. New York Giants (12-4)
After looking like one of the worst teams in the NFL two weeks into the season, the Giants have rallied for six straight victories behind what is arguably the best defense in the league and now sit a game back of Dallas in the NFC East with a huge matchup looming against them this Sunday. A victory over the Cowboys would vault them to the top of the division and essentially assure them a playoff spot. The pass rush has been the key for New York, as they have recorded 28 sacks during their six-game winning streak. If the defensive line can keep applying that kind of pressure to opposing quarterbacks, this Giants' team is going to be very hard to beat. They have a fairly easy schedule after the Dallas game, their toughest games coming at Detroit, at Chicago, and at home against New England in week 17. If the Patriots have already lost a game by then, look for them to rest guys for the playoffs, making things much easier on the G-Men. New York is the best team in the NFC, and they will prove that this weekend.

3. New Orleans Saints (10-6)
The Saints looked absolutely awful in their first four games, getting embarrassed and shut down in each and every one of them. However, they have improved drastically the past four weeks and are finally starting to resemble the team that went to the NFC Championship Game last season. New Orleans has an extremely easy schedule over their last eight weeks, with games at home against St. Louis, Arizona, and Philadelphia and road games against Houston, Carolina, and Atlanta. Their two toughest games left are home against Tampa Bay and then at Chicago in the final week of the season. Drew Brees looks like an entirely different quarterback now, but the lack of a running game is going to hurt this team. If Deuce McAllister was here, they could very well be 5-3 and in sole possession of first place in the NFC South instead of 4-4 and in second. Either way, the Saints will be in the playoffs. How dangerous they will be remains to be seen.

4. Seattle Seahawks (10-6)
Seattle has been one of the most unimpressive teams in the league the past few weeks, losing three of their last four and seeing their once dominant ground game disappear into thin air. Shaun Alexander, two years removed from an 1,880-yard, 27-touchdown season, is putting up a mere 3.3 yards per carry and is again being hampered by injuries. Their defense, ranked 18th in the NFL, has also been getting torched, and it is coming off a game in which it gave up 33 points to Cleveland. However, luckily for the Seahawks, they have a very painless schedule the rest of the way, with games against the 49ers, Rams, Cardinals, Panthers, Eagles, and Falcons. Their toughest contests will be against Chicago and Baltimore at home, but neither of those teams are anything to write home about this season. The Seahawks can also thank the football gods for allowing them to be in the NFC West, a.k.a. the most pathetic division in the National Football League. So, how about their chances of a postseason run? Unless Alexander somehow regains his old magic, their is nothing to get excited about in January for the state of Washington.

5. Dallas Cowboys (10-6)
At 7-1, they can do no wrong right now, but things are about to get much tougher for the Cowboys. They play the Giants at the Meadowlands this weekend, and then have the Redskins twice, the Packers, and a game in Detroit, not to mention the fact that they have the Eagles at home (it's always tough to sweep a division rival) and a game at Carolina. Dallas' offense has been clicking on all cylinders through the first nine weeks, but they will now face several very good defenses, including New York on Sunday. The Cowboys will still be a top three team in the conference when all is said-and-done, but don't look for them to maintain what they're doing now. However, the talent they have should be enough for them to make a nice run in the playoffs. The key is their pass rush which, outside of DeMarcus Ware and Greg Ellis, has not been that effective. Cornerback Terence Newman also needs to step up his game in the secondary, as Dallas' defensive backs are vulnerable to the big play, and taller receivers like Plaxico Burress and Randy Moss had their way with the Cowboys this season.

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6)
It will come down to Tampa Bay, Washington, and Detroit for the sixth and final playoff spot in the NFC, and I think the Buccaneers take it. First of all, they have the easiest schedule of the three, as they play Atlanta twice, San Francisco, and Carolina at home. They also play the Redskins at home, and that will probably be the game that decides which of the two teams goes to the postseason. Because the game will be at Tampa Bay, I'm going with the Bucs. Jeff Garcia is once again leading a team lacking in true talent to a potential playoff berth, as he has his team in first place in the NFC South. I don't expect that to last, however, with the Saints rolling and having many very winnable games on their schedule over the final eight weeks of the season. The Buccaneers' defense has been the key to their success, though, as linebacker Barrett Ruud is making a case for Defensive Player of the Year and third-year defensive tackle Jovan Haye has emerged into one of the conference's better interior linemen. And how about the play of halfback Earnest Graham in place of Carnell Williams? Despite all of this, I don't expect Tampa Bay to make much noise in the playoffs. They will be pesky, though.

On the outside looking in: Detroit Lions
They are the NFC's version of the Browns. The Lions are currently sitting at 6-2 and have won three straight. However, their second-half schedule is absolutely brutal. They have to play Green Bay twice, the Giants, Dallas, San Diego on the road, and Kansas City. Their game at Arizona this weekend won't be a cakewalk either, as the Cardinals desperately need this game to have any hope at making a run at the postseason. It also doesn't help that the Redskins pounded Detroit 34-3 earlier in the year, so if the Lions are fighting with them for the final playoff spot in the closing weeks of the season, Washington will own the tiebreaker. Plus, as I stated before, the Buccaneers have the much easier schedule down the stretch and have more experience. Either way, you have to give Jon Kitna props for backing up his talk with his play.

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