Giants +13? Bet the house on that one

Four weeks ago, the New York Giants gave the New England Patriots the fight of their lives in the season finale. The Giants were already locked into the number five seed in the NFC while the Patriots were trying to make history by going undefeated. New York led by as much as 12, but savvy New England battled its way back in the fourth quarter for a 38-35 victory in the Meadowlands and a 16-0 season. It seems like that was just yesterday. Well, two weeks from now, these two teams will do it again.

The Giants and Patriots both won their respective conference championship games on Sunday, New York doing so in Green Bay against the Packers and New England accomplishing the feat at home against the San Diego Chargers. Nearly everyone expected the Patriots to rip through the AFC and into Glendale, Arizona for the Super Bowl, but the same cannot be said for the Giants, a team that had to win three straight on the road to reach the promised land. They did that, and have now won 10 straight away from home overall.

New England is an early 13-point favorite for its Super matchup with New York on Feb. 3rd, despite the fact that Bill Belichick's squad looked less than stellar in a 21-12 win over the Chargers in the AFC Title Game. Tom Brady threw three interceptions, one in the end zone. However, he did come up big when his team needed him most late in the game, throwing a fourth quarter touchdown pass to Wes Welker that essentially sealed the deal for the Patriots. Laurence Maroney ran for 122 yards for the second consecutive week, and in his past five games, the second-year halfback has rushed for 550 yards, good for 110 a game.

Fortunately for New York, its run defense has been outstanding all season and throughout the playoffs. It held Ryan Grant, who ran wild for 201 yards and three scores last week against Seattle, to 29 yards on 13 carries. It also held Dallas' Marion Barber to only 28 yards on the ground in the second half in the Divisional Round despite allowing him to rack up 101 in the first two quarters. Three games ago, the Giants' defense contained Tampa Bay's Earnest Graham, holding him to only 63 yards on 18 carries, a 3.5 yards per carry average.

New York is ready for almost anything New England has to throw at them. It obviously helps that Big Blue just saw the history-making Pats less than a month ago, and if it wasn't for an illegal contact penalty on Corey Webster on a third-down stop by the Giants early in the game that led to a New England touchdown, New York may very well have come away with the win. It prevented the big play for 49 minutes, which was when Brady launched a 65-yard touchdown bomb to Randy Moss to give the Patriots a three-point lead. The Giants also kept Maroney in check, allowing him only 46 yards on the ground. He did, however, reach the end zone twice.

Eli Manning may not need to have another performance like he did when he faced New England on Dec. 29th for New York to have a chance at winning this football game, but he does have to minimize his mistakes more than ever. The much-maligned quarterback has done that thus far in the postseason, as he is yet to turn the ball over. He has done an excellent job managing games for the Giants while compiling a 99.4 passer rating in the playoffs to boot.

New York has to give the Patriots a heavy dose of the new-found dynamic duo of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. The two young backs totaled 130 yards between them in the Giants' NFC Championship victory over Green Bay. Bradshaw was absent in the Giants' loss to New England last month because of a leg contusion. Now, he will get his chance to give the Patriots their first look at what looks to be a future star halfback in this league. New England has shown some vulnerability in stopping the run at times this season, and that is something New York has to jump on in this game.

The Giants also have to realize that taking Moss away from the Patriots is not going to hand them a victory. The superstar receiver has been held to only one catch in each of New England's playoff games, yet Brady has still found Welker, Donte' Stallworth, tight end Ben Watson, etc. to put points on the board. This Patriots' team has an unlimited supply of weapons, as evidenced by backup halfback Kevin Faulk's 82 yards receiving on eight catches Sunday. Jabar Gaffney and Welker caught the two touchdowns from Brady. Moss, Stallworth, and Watson were all but non-existent, and Brady maneuvered a way to pull it out.

New York's defensive line was able to push around New England's offensive line in their first meeting, as Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora, and Justin Tuck seemed to always be around Brady as he was making his throws, whether they were hitting him or simply getting in his face. Even the Giants' linebackers found paths to the Pats' all-pro quarterback, and that is something New England will have to prevent in two weeks. The only way the Giants can win this game is if they can get pressure on Brady. It's easier said than done, but the Patriots will have to do all they can to protect their quarterback.

Another huge factor in this game is the special teams. Domenik Hixon has been dominant as a kick returner for New York since being inserted into that role late in the year, as demonstrated by his kickoff return for a touchdown in the game against New England. Hixon was also an unsung hero for the Giants on Sunday against the Packers, consistently giving Manning and the offense a short field to work with. The Patriots' have a pretty good return man themselves in Ellis Hobbs, and kicker Stephen Gostkowski looks Adam Vinatieri-like out there in the postseason. Although Lawrence Tynes kicked the game-winner from 47 yards out against Green Bay for New York, one still cannot be 100% confident in him if it does in fact come down to a field goal. Tynes missed two attempts, including a 36-yarder that would have won the game at the end of regulation, before sending the G-Men to their first Super Bowl since 2001.

All things considered, the Giants are the best-equipped team in the NFL to beat New England. If they can apply constant pressure to Brady and force him into bad throws, then they have a very good shot at winning this football game. If they give him time, then he will surely be able to pick apart a still suspect New York secondary. It has played much better lately, with Webster finally coming into his own and Gibril Wilson regularly making plays both at the line of scrimmage and downfield, but it is still vulnerable. The middle of the field can also be a spot of weakness for the Giants' defense, so expect Brady to look for Watson there for a good portion of the game.

Give the Patriots an inch, and they will take a yard. It takes an almost absolute perfect effort to beat this team, but if anyone can do it, New York can. Bet your money on the Giants for this matchup. Although they may not come away with the win, I am almost certain they will not lose by two touchdowns.