Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Offseason Outlook: Florida Marlins

Although we are not going to see another firesale this time around from the Marlins, they still have a lot of important decisions to make during the off-season. The only thing one can be sure of is that Florida won't be moving another one of its superstars, as it locked up Hanley Ramirez to a six-year contract extension earlier in the year. So, there will be no Miguel Cabrera-like exit for Ramirez in 2008.

Projected 2009 Starting Lineup:

C- John Baker
1B- Gaby Sanchez
2B- Dan Uggla
SS- Hanley Ramirez
3B- Jorge Cantu
LF- Cody Ross
CF- Cameron Maybin
RF- Jeremy Hermida

SP- Josh Johnson
SP- Ricky Nolasco
SP- Chris Volstad
SP- Scott Olsen
SP- Anibal Sanchez

Who likely won't be back:

Paul Lo Duca- C
Mike Jacobs- 1B
Josh Willingham- LF
Kevin Gregg- RP

With the emergence of Gaby Sanchez and Cameron Maybin late in the year, it is very likely that the Marlins will attempt to move Mike Jacobs and one of their outfielders (most likely Josh Willingham) in the off-season. Maybin proved in September that he is ready to take on a starting role in the majors while Sanchez won the MVP of the Southern League in the minors this past season. He also looked impressive in the limited playing time he was given in the final month of the 2008 campaign. Florida also wants to get away from their "all-or-nothing" type of offense and insert players who can get on base and produce better in clutch spots (i.e., driving in a runner on third with less than two outs).

The feeling is that All-Star second baseman Dan Uggla will stay, as dealing both Jacobs and Uggla would subtract 64 home runs from the lineup. It would also leave a gaping hole at second base as top prospect Chris Coghlan does not seem ready to take on a major-league role yet and Alfredo Amezaga and Robert Andino are not full-time players. So, unless someone makes the Marlins an unbelievable offer for Uggla, he isn't going anywhere. Not this year, anyway. Also, don't expect this team to search for a catcher like they did at the trading deadline this past season; John Baker has that spot locked down due to his outstanding and more-or-less surprising 2008 showing.

Florida also seems to be running out of patience with Jeremy Hermida, but the general consensus is that management will give him one more chance at finally realizing his phenomenal potential. Recently, a scout questioned his passion for the game. If this is what is causing Hermida to not live up to expectations, then he needs to do something. Fast. Remember that this is a kid who batted .340 in the second half of 2007, so the talent is definitely there. There is pretty much no chance of Cody Ross getting dealt, so the Marlins' 2009 outfield will most likely consist of Ross and Hermida at the corners and Maybin patrolling center.

As far as the starting rotation goes, it seems like Florida will go into 2009 with the same five that they ended 2008 with. However, there is speculation that the Fish might shop Scott Olsen around to see what they can get for the 24-year old left-hander. The process of thinking here is that trading Olsen would free up a spot in the rotation for Andrew Miller. Miller was one of the two main pieces Florida got back in the Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis deal (Maybin being the other) with Detroit. Olsen was inconsistent this past season, but the fact that he is still young and has great stuff means that there will certainly be a lot of teams interested in his services. Still, if I were to guess, I'd say he remains in Miami. Also, some think Anibal Sanchez might be the odd man out of the starting five going into opening day, but the prospect of him being fully recovered from his shoulder surgery is too tempting to pass up based on how well he performed during his rookie season when he was healthy.

Another sure-thing is that the Marlins will definitely trade Kevin Gregg. He blew nine saves in 2008 to lose his job as the closer, as Matt Lindstrom took over and now projects to be Florida's closer of the future. Joe Nelson will likely be the setup man, and I expect Renyel Pinto to have a role despite his dreadful second half this past year (although that probably had more to do with Pinto being overworked than anything else, hence the reason why he was hurt for the final month or so).

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