The Bubble

ACC

Boston College (20-9, 8-6)

Signature wins: at North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, at Maryland
Other notable wins: Virginia Tech, UAB, Providence
Key losses: at Saint Louis, Harvard, swept by Miami
Remaining games: at North Carolina State, Georgia Tech
Breakdown: The Eagles' two huge wins over North Carolina (on the road) and Duke should be enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament. They also have several other nice victories over potential tournament teams. Either way, it would obviously behoove Boston College to win its final two games and, for seeding purposes, put forth a good performance in the ACC Tourney.

Virginia Tech (17-10, 7-6)

Signature wins: at Wake Forest, at Clemson, Boston College, at Miami
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: at Georgia, at Virginia
Remaining games: Duke, North Carolina, at Florida State
Breakdown: The Hokies came away with a huge win at Clemson, the second of a murderous five-game end to the season (they lost the first game to Florida State). Virginia Tech needs to win one of its final three games in order to get into the Big Dance without having to win its conference tournament. As of right now, the Hokies would most likely be on the outside looking in due to two bad losses against Georgia and Virginia.

Miami (16-10, 5-8)

Signature wins: Wake Forest, swept Boston College, at Kentucky, Florida State
Other notable wins: Maryland
Key losses: None
Remaining games: at Virginia, at Georgia Tech, North Carolina State
Breakdown: Is it possible for a team that is 5-8 in its conference to currently be a tournament worthy team? In this case, yes. Why? Because the Hurricanes do not have one ugly loss on their resumé. Their worst loss came to 15-10 N.C. State. Not just that, but Miami has compiled some very solid wins, its sweep of Boston College perhaps most notable. If the season ended today, I think the Hurricanes would be in. Still, they have to win their final three games, which would put them at .500 in ACC play.

Maryland (17-10, 6-7)

Signature wins: North Carolina, Michigan State, Miami
Other notable wins: Michigan, Virginia Tech
Key losses: Morgan State, 41-point loss to Duke, 29-point loss to Clemson, 27-point loss to Georgetown
Remaining games: at North Carolina State, Wake Forest, at Virginia
Breakdown: Their unbelievable comeback victory against the Tar Heels aside, the Terrapins still have not done enough to merit themselves an NCAA Tournament berth. They had a chance to possibly clinch a spot last night, but fell to Duke for the second time this season. Perhaps the worst part about Maryland's resumé is all of their blowout losses. Yes, it has two great wins against UNC and Michigan State, but it also lost to Morgan State. The Terps will most likely have to win their final three contests to go dancing.

BIG 12

Kansas State (19-9, 7-6)

Signature wins: Missouri, at Texas
Other notable wins: at Texas A&M
Key losses: at Iowa, at Oregon, 22-point loss to Nebraska
Remaining games: Nebraska, at Oklahoma State, Colorado
Breakdown: Kansas State has put itself in a pretty precarious position with March approaching. It could have put itself on the right side of the bubble by completing a sweep of Missouri yesterday, but instead, the Wildcats were dismantled by the Tigers. Now, K-State must win its last three games to have any chance of getting in to the tournament. Even worse is the fact that none of its remaining opponents carry any significant value as far as signature wins go (Oklahoma State is the only one that's even close). The Wildcats will have to win out and most likely do some damage in the Big 12 Tournament to earn a bid,.

BIG EAST

West Virginia (19-8, 8-6)

Signature wins: Villanova, at Ohio State, 27-point win over Providence
Other notable wins: at Georgetown, Notre Dame
Key losses: None
Remaining games: at Cincinnati, at South Florida, DePaul, Louisville
Breakdown: The Mountaineers probably assured themselves a spot in the tourney when they obliterated Villanova back on Feb. 13. Still, they would be much safer if they won at least three of their last four games. On that same token, I could see them going 2-2 or even 1-3 during this final stretch and still getting in. A win over Louisville should clinch a berth for West Virginia.

Providence (17-11, 9-7)

Signature wins: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, swept Cincinnati
Other notable wins: Rhode Island
Key losses: 33-point loss to Connecticut, 27-point loss to West Virginia, Northeastern
Remaining games: at Rutgers, at Villanova
Breakdown: It would seem unfair to say that a team that has gone 9-7 in the Big East is not worthy of the NCAA Tournament, but that's exactly what I'm going to say about the Friars at this point in time. Their win over #1 Pittsburgh was enormous, but outside of that, Providence has not done all that much and has endured some embarrassing losses against the conference's top competition. If the Friars can win their final two games (which would include one at Villanova), they will find themselves in the Big Dance, as I can't see the Selection Committee leaving out a Big East squad that finished 11-7 within the conference.

Cincinnati (17-10, 7-7)

Signature wins: Swept Georgetown
Other notable wins: Notre Dame, UNLV, UAB
Key losses: 34-point loss to Marquette, swept by Providence
Remaining games: West Virginia, at Syracuse, at South Florida, Seton Hall
Breakdown: The good news: the Bearcats don't have any ugly losses outside of a blowout at Marquette and get shots at West Virginia and Syracuse down the final stretch. The bad news: other than two wins against Georgetown, Cincinnati hasn't done much else. The 'Cats will most likely need to beat both West Virginia and Syracuse to earn an at-large bid.

Notre Dame (16-11, 7-8)

Signature wins: Louisville, Texas, at Providence
Other notable wins: Georgetown
Key losses: at St. John's, 26-point loss at UCLA
Remaining games: at Connecticut, Villanova, St. John's
Breakdown: Notre Dame is certainly fighting an uphill battle here, as that seven-game losing streak looms ominously over its resumé. Trouncing Louisville by 33 saved the Fighting Irish's season, but it will take more than that to get the Irish into the Dance. Beating UConn on the road would be a great start, but even that might not get them a bid. Notre Dame probably has to win at Connecticut and then beat Villanova and St. John's to earn an invite to the NCAAs.

BIG TEN

Penn State (19-9, 8-7)

Signature wins: at Michigan State, Purdue, at Illinois, Minnesota
Other notable wins: Michigan, Northwestern
Key losses: None
Remaining games: Indiana, Illinois, at Iowa
Breakdown: At the moment, I have the Nittany Lions in the NCAA Tournament. They have put together some nice wins and don't really have any ugly losses. All things considered, Penn State must win at least two of its final three games, and one might even say that the Lions cannot afford to lose to the Fighting Illini on Mar. 5. I disagree, though, as going 2-1 over their last three contests would put Penn State at 10-8 in the Big Ten, probably good enough for a tournament berth.

Wisconsin (17-10, 8-7)

Signature wins: Illinois, Ohio State, swept Penn State, at Michigan
Other notable wins: at Virginia Tech, Northwestern
Key losses: at Iowa
Remaining games: Michigan, at Minnesota, Indiana
Breakdown: The Badgers have been a model of inconsistency this season, looking like a very legimitate tournament team at some points and resembling an NIT squad at other times. They can probably lock up an NCAA Tournament berth by winning two of their final three games, but the key word there is "probably." Taking that into consideration, Wisconsin would be best-served winning out the rest of the way.

Michigan (17-11, 7-8)

Signature wins: UCLA, Duke, Illinois, Penn State, Minnesota
Other notable wins: Swept Northwestern
Key losses: Swept by Ohio State, at Iowa
Remaining games: Purdue, at Wisconsin, at Minnesota
Breakdown: Michigan has been in the race for the NCAA Tournament all year long thanks to their wins over UCLA and Duke. However, their victory over the Bruins does not hold as much weight as it once did, and then will probably need to win two of their last three contests to earn an at-large bid. Still, you can't ignore the Wolverines' overall body of work, as they also own wins over several top-tier Big Ten teams. On the flip side, Michigan is currently below .500 in the conference and missed a chance to get on the good side of the bubble by losing to Iowa.

MOUNTAIN WEST

BYU (21-6, 9-4)

Signature wins: None
Other notable wins: at Utah State, Swept San Diego State
Key losses: Swept by UNLV
Remaining games: Utah, at Wyoming, Air Force
Breakdown: Thankfully for the Cougars, they don't have any bad losses. At the same time, they don't have any true signature wins, either. Winning at Utah State was nice, but if that's your best victory, then you're going to have problems winning over the Selection Committee. The fact that they were swept by UNLV probably hurts even more due to the fact that the Rebels are a conference rival that is also fighting for an at-large bid. BYU absolutely has to win out to get in.

PAC-10

No bubble teams.

SEC

LSU (24-4, 12-1)

Signature wins: at Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida
Other notable wins: Swept Mississippi State
Key losses: 30-point loss to Utah
Remaining games: at Kentucky, Vanderbilt, at Auburn
Breakdown: The Tigers' overall and conference record looks good enough to merit themselves a one seed, but when you actually examine their overall body of work, one can argue whether LSU is truly deserving of the NCAA Tournament at all. Either way, barring a collapse by the Tigers down the stretch, LSU will be in the Big Dance. Their record within the SEC will be too gaudy not to give them a spot. If they win at Kentucky on Saturday, you can officially punch their ticket.

South Carolina (20-6, 9-4)

Signature wins: Swept Kentucky, Florida
Other notable wins: at Baylor
Key losses: College of Charleston
Remaining games: at Vanderbilt, Tennessee, at Georgia
Breakdown: The Gamecocks are probably safe, but their lackluster resumé could come back to bite them in the end if they get tripped up during the final stretch. South Carolina does not have very much room for error, which makes its blowout win over Kentucky yesterday to complete the season sweep of the Wildcats all the more important. The Gamecocks will more than likely seal the deal with a win over Tennessee on Mar. 5, but they cannot afford to lose their games against Vanderbilt and Georgia, either. All that aside, South Carolina can do no worse than 9-7 in the SEC (not that the SEC is so great, but clinching an above .500 record in your conference is huge and looks good to the Selection Committee).

Kentucky (19-9, 8-5)

Signature wins: Swept Tennessee, West Virginia, Florida
Other notable wins: Kansas State
Key losses: VMI
Remaining games: LSU, Georgia, at Florida
Breakdown: The Wildcats' sweep of Tennessee should be enough to get them into the tournament, especially with the way they beat the Volunteers both times (by 18 and 19 points, respectively). Still, their second win over Tennessee is sandwiched between a 13-point loss at Vanderbilt and an 18-point drubbing handed to them by South Carolina. Kentucky can probably wrap up an at-large berth by beating either LSU or Florida. Oh; and it CANNOT lose to Georgia.

Tennessee (17-10, 8-5)

Signature wins: Marquette, Florida
Other notable wins: Georgetown, at Siena
Key losses: Swept by Kentucky
Remaining games: at Florida, at South Carolina, Alabama
Breakdown: If not for the win over Marquette, Tennessee would have next-to-no chance of earning an at-large bid, but the Volunteers have it, and that's why they're still afloat. Getting swept by Kentucky is probably the worst thing that could have happened to them, and losing by 16 at Mississippi doesn't look too good, either. Despite all of that, if the Vols beat one of Florida or South Carolina and take care of business against Alabama, they will probably find themselves in the tournament, as that would put them at 10-6 in the SEC.

Florida (21-7, 8-5)

Signature wins: Washington, South Carolina
Other notable wins: Swept Vanderbilt
Key losses: at Georgia
Remaining games: Tennessee, at Mississippi State, Kentucky
Breakdown: The loss to Georgia is what is really killing the Gators' at-large chances right now, especially seeing that it was the Bulldogs' first SEC win of the season. Florida most likely has to win out to earn an invite to the NCAA Tournament, as it has not compiled many nice-looking victories, either.

OTHER TEAMS FROM OTHER CONFERENCES

Dayton (23-5, 9-4)

Signature wins: at Marquette, Xavier
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: at Massachusetts
Remaining games: Temple, at Xavier, Duquesne
Breakdown: By losing two games in a row, Dayton has put itself in a position where it might have to sweep Xavier to get into the tournament. The Flyers' win over Marquette and their first victory over the Musketeers might not be enough for them to garner a bid, so they probably either have to beat Xavier again or take out Temple and Duquesne and go deep into the Atlantic-10 Tournament, if not win it.

Butler (23-4, 13-3)

Signature wins: at Xavier, at Davidson
Other notable wins: Northwestern, UAB
Key losses: Loyola (Illinois)
Remaining games: Youngstown State, Cleveland State
Breakdown: Butler should, and I stress the word should, be safe. The Bulldogs have put together a decent resumé, although it is not exactly glamorous. Basically, Butler cannot avoid any slip-ups against their final two opponents and must at least reach the championship game in the Horizon League Tournament.

Davidson (23-6, 16-2)

Signature wins: West Virginia
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: 18-point loss to Citadel
Remaining games: Georgia Southern, at Elon
Breakdown: Without a doubt, Davidson must win the Southern League Tournament in order to go dancing. That should not be much of a problem for them as long as Stephen Curry is fully healthy, but the fact that the Wildcats had ample opportunities to better their resumé against top-notch competition this season has to be eating away at them.

Saint Mary's (22-5, 8-4)

Signature wins: None
Other notable wins: at San Diego State, Providence, Utah State
Key losses: Swept by Gonzaga, 18-point loss to Santa Clara, 18-point loss to Portland
Remaining games: at Pepperdine, at Loyola-Marymount
Breakdown: Obviously, the Selection Committee will take Patrick Mills' injury into consideration when determining the Gaels' fate, but either way, Saint Mary's hasn't exactly beaten a plethora of quality teams this season. Still, the fact that they took Gonzaga down to the wire in both losses to them should play into the Committee's minds at least a little bit. The Gaels must win their final two games and reach the title game in the WAC Tournament.