Why the Celtics will beat the Cavaliers

For the second time in three years, the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers will meet in the second round of the NBA Playoffs. The first time around, in 2008, Boston eliminated Cleveland in an epic seven-game series, a series in which the deciding game saw LeBron James and Paul Pierce go off for 45 and 41 points, respectively. Most die-hard NBA fans can still almost flawlessly replay the second half of that May afternoon contest at TD Garden in their minds. The Celtics would then, of course, go on to win the championship.

Flash forward two years later, and much has changed. For one, Boston does not have homecourt advantage in this series; Cleveland does. The Cavaliers' personnel also looks awfully different, as they have added the likes of Maurice Williams, Antawn Jamison, Shaquille O'Neal, and Anthony Parker to their ranks since that game seven. The Celtics' roster is very similar, but at the same time, it isn't. Their starting lineup is identical to the one it had in that 2008 battle, but Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen have all declined, with Garnett and Pierce both undergoing knee surgeries and Allen fighting a couple of pesky injuries and, of course, father time.

It isn't all sour for Boston, though, as Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins have both improved more than considerably over the past two seasons, with Rondo developing into a top five point guard in the league and Perkins turning into an elite low-post defender. As far as the Celtics' bench goes, both Tony Allen and Glen Davis are much more significant contributors than they were in '08. However, Boston no longer has the likes Eddie House and P.J. Brown coming off the pine to spark the team. They do have Rasheed Wallace, Nate Robinson, and Marquis Daniels, but all three players have been significant disappointments this season, although Wallace could very well be a huge factor in this series (which I will get to later).

Outside of James, Cleveland's starting five is unrecognizable when stacked up against its '08 squad which consisted of James, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Ben Wallace, Wally Szczerbiak, and Delonte West. This year, Ilgauskas and West are still members of the team, but they have been relegated to bench roles. The Cavaliers' starting lineup now features James, O'Neal, Jamison, Parker, and Williams. Cleveland has some very nice depth, with West, Anderson Varejao, J.J. Hickson, Jamario Moon, and Ilgauskas being prominent bench players.

Both teams won their first-round matchups in five games, the Celtics taking out fifth-seeded Miami, the Cavaliers beating eighth-seeded Chicago. I really liked the way Boston handled the Heat. Garnett and company made it overwhelmingly challenging for Miami to work the ball inside, and largely due to that, Jermaine O'Neal had a dreadful series, and Dwyane Wade was forced to take many more perimeter jumpers than he wanted.

The Celtics' "old legs" have seemingly come to life in the postseason, which was something that I had anticipated all year long. I'm not saying that Boston essentially did not care about the regular season, but given that its "Big Three" of Garnett, Pierce, and Allen are all well into their 30s and carry a ton of mileage on their bodies, it is not at all outlandish to say that the Celts were conserving energy for the playoffs. In fact, it is probably factual, especially considering how well and how live each of those future Hall-of-Famers looked against the Heat. Garnett was back to being a disruptive force on defense and on the boards, Pierce had reverted back to Boston's clear-cut go-to guy in crunchtime, and Allen had rediscovered consistency on his three-point stroke, hitting threes at a 53% clip during the first round.

Coming into the playoffs, no one was giving the Celtics a chance to do much of anything because of their age. As a matter of fact, many had Miami either taking Boston to seven games or even beating them. Hardly anyone was even discussing whether or not the Celts would stand a chance against the likes of Cleveland or Orlando in the postseason; most were just wondering how well they would handle their first-round series. Talk about jumping the gun with a team that consists of three future Hall-of-Famers (and yes; I know that is the second time I mentioned that).

What I want to know is what makes the Cavaliers such a sure-thing to beat Boston. Okay; so they have James. Well, the Celtics have Garnett, Pierce, Allen, and Rondo. You might answer back and say that Cleveland also has Shaq, to which I will respond by saying that Boston has a player who is considered by many to be the NBA's best low-post defender in Perkins. If O'Neal couldn't get much going against the Bulls, how is he going to get into any kind of rhythm against the Celtics? As far as Jamison goes, I see him having quite a bit of trouble finding his game with Garnett patrolling the paint. Jamison is a good low-post scorer, but K.G. is one of the best defenders to ever play the game, and his length could and should give him a lot of problems.

Boston will surely employ a similar strategy against Cleveland as they did against Miami, which is to vehemently defend pick-and-rolls involving James and stack the defense against him whenever he attempts to penetrate off of those screens. The Celtics used this tactic against Wade, and although Wade averaged over 30 PPG for the series, it worked, as much of his scoring came from the perimeter rather than him slashing and drawing contact underneath, and obviously, Boston would love to turn LeBron into a jump shooter. However, the C's have to make sure to close out on the Cavaliers' outside shooters, as James can easily dish the ball back out to the likes of Williams, Parker, West, etc. if the lane gets clogged.

The main advantage Boston has over Cleveland in this series is the point guard matchup; Williams cannot handle Rondo; plain and simple. Rondo is far too quick and can easily burn Williams off the dribble every time down the floor. The key is whether or not Rondo is making his shots, as he missed a number of "gimmes" against the Heat. On that same token, though, if he is not able to put the ball in the hoop, he can still force the Cavs' defense to collapse on him, either opening up Garnett for 18-footers or Allen or Pierce behind the three-point line. One must wonder if this will also play a factor in Williams' offense, as he is going to be awfully gassed from chasing Rondo around the floor all series long.

That brings me to Wallace, the man whom Garnett, Pierce, and Allen so aggressively recruited in the off-season so he could be a huge part of a potential championship team. Well, things haven't necessarily worked out as planned, as Wallace has not really contributed anything worthwhile all year long. You then wondered whether or not he was saving it for the playoffs, too, but then you saw the way he performed against Miami, and you realize that you were probably wrong for even thinking that.

However, I still think it is too early to throw in the towel on 'Sheed. Let's remember that this is a guy who has championship experience, a guy who has defended Shaq multiple times in past postseasons and has also seen plenty of James in the playoffs, as well. His veteran savvy could play an enormous part in this series, and I would not be the least bit surprised to see him have a couple of vintage-Wallace games where he dominates in the low post, knocks down some big treys, and is very sharp defensively. Let's face it; 'Sheed signed with Boston for moments like this. If he has anything left in the tank (and I think he still does), we will see it come game one.

Another player to watch for the Celtics is Robinson. Acquired from the Knicks in a midseason trade that sent fan-favorite Eddie House packing, Robinson has not lived up to expectations in green, quickly falling out of favor with Doc Rivers and dropping out of the rotation entirely. However, Rivers would be wise to give Little Nate a shot in this series. Much like Rondo can use his quickness to routinely abuse Williams, Robinson can do the same. When he is on his game, Robinson is a very explosive player capable of scoring in bursts and giving his squad an enormous lift. If he can come in and give Boston some quality minutes off the bench, Cleveland may be in for a world of hurt.

You might think that, for the Cavaliers, this series rests solely on James, but that is very false, as Cleveland's success will ultimately depend on how well it shoots from the perimeter. Obviously, James will be attacking the rim with reckless abandon, which will continually force the Celtic defense to collapse into the paint, leaving shooters like Williams, Parker, and West open. If those guys are able to consistently knock down their outside shots, Boston will be in trouble.

The anticipation for this playoff meeting between these two squads has been building ever since the Celtics' 117-113 Easter Sunday victory over the Cavaliers. Boston led by as much as 22, but Cleveland staged a furious rally in the fourth quarter to take the lead. The Celtics then regrouped, as Allen hit a gigantic three-pointer to but his team up by four with under a minute to go, and James missed two of four free throws down the stretch.

James also had an opportunity to tie the game down by two with under 10 seconds left, but instead hoisted up an ill-advised three on a fast break that missed badly, prompting Tony Allen to say, "I stopped you." This then escalated into James entering Boston's huddle during the ensuing timeout. Garnett then hit two free throws to ice the game, and he could be seen jawing with James, who was attempting to psyche K.G. out at the line earlier. After the game, James said, "We don't like them, and they don't like us.," stating that the NBA needed a rivalry like this again. Ever since that day, this seemingly inevitable series has been gaining more and more steam, and now, we'll finally get to see it.

Prediction: Celtics in six.