NL playoff picture as murky as ever

The San Diego Padres took a 3-2 lead into the bottom of the ninth inning against the hapless Milwaukee Brewers yesterday afternoon. Milwaukee had nothing to play for, as they had already been eliminated from playoff contention after a miserable September, and with Trevor Hoffman, owner of 42 saves and a 2.53 ERA, coming into to close out the game, you'd figure the Padres had it all wrapped up right? Wrong. With two outs and Corey Hart on second, Tony Gwynn Jr. ripped a triple into right field to bring in Hart. Ironic that Tony Gwynn's son would do this to San Diego, huh? The Brewers would then proceed to win it in the 11th inning, setting the National League playoff race into a frenzy.

The Philadelphia Phillies also made things much more difficult for the final day of the season, as they dropped the second game of a three-game set to the Washington Nationals, 4-2, allowing the New York Mets, who defeated the Florida Marlins 13-0 behind a spectacular performance from John Maine, to pull even with the Phils in the NL East. However, things would not have been complete if the Colorado Rockies didn't do their part. Unfortunately for baseball analysts everywhere, they did, trumping the Arizona Diamondbacks 11-1 to bring themselves back within a game of the NL Wild Card-leading Padres.

So, what does all that mean? It means that we're in for a very confusing Sunday afternoon of baseball, that's what. Let's examine the most confusing scenario:

If the Mets and Phillies both win, the Padres lose and the Rockies win, the Mets and Phillies will play a one-game playoff tomorrow to decide the NL East division title. The loser of that game will be tossed into a three-game playoff with Colorado and San Diego. If that is the case, the Rockies, thanks to winning the season series' with each of the remaining squads, get to decide if they want to play two games at home or play the winner of the Padres/Phillies or Mets game on the road.

Is your head spinning yet? And the worst part is that this is only one of a possible 1,548 scenarios to determine which teams fill out the final two playoff spots in the National League. That's where the Diamondbacks come into play. They have already clinched the NL West title and home-field advantage throughout the NL playoffs, making life much easier on the Rockies today. Doug Davis was scheduled to pitch for Arizona, but he was scratched from his start and will be replaced by Yusmeiro Petit, owner of a 3-4 record and a 5.02 ERA in 13 appearances (nine starts) this season. Manager Bob Melvin also said that he will sit catcher Chris Snyder, second baseman Augie Ojeda, and center-fielder Chris Young. I'm sure that's not all of the Diamondbacks who will be benched today, and I'm also sure that there will be a few that see one at-bat and are replaced after a few innings.

In the case of the Padres, their fans have reason to take valumes before the game's 2:05 ET start against Milwaukee. Why? Because Brett Tomko (4-11, 5.39 ERA) will be taking the mound for their team, and he will be opposed by Jeff Suppan, a pitcher who thrives in late September and October. You can be sure that he will bring his best stuff today and that the young Brewers will fight until the finish. Even more scary for San Diego fans is the success that some of the Milwaukee players have experienced against Tomko. Geoff Jenkins is 10-for-28 (.357) with two homers versus the right-hander, Johnny Estrada is 4-for-10 with a long ball, and Prince Fielder has homered one against him in three at-bats. Bill Hall has also gone deep against Tomko and is 3-for-9 when facing him lifetime. Also take into account that the Brewers are 81-80, meaning that today's game will determine whether they finish with a winning season or end at .500, so this contest does mean something to Milwaukee.

I'm sure plenty of Met fans also have doubts, as they are facing their arch-nemesis in Florida's Dontrelle Willis today. Willis sports an 11-3 record and a 2.49 ERA in his career against the Mets. He also hit all three of his home runs against the Mets last year, two in one game in September and a grand slam in July. On the mound for New York is Tom Glavine, a pitcher whom these same Marlins rocked for 11 hits and four runs in five innings just a week-and-a-half ago down in Miami. The Phillies will send out 44-year old Jamie Moyer to try and take care of business versus Jason Bergmann and the Nationals, who have made life very tough on several contenders as of late, most notably the Mets.

So, what are my predictions for today?

1. The Marlins will take out the Mets behind an outstanding performance from Willis in what may be his final game as a Marlin.
2. The Phillies will beat the Nationals handily.
3. The Brewers will down the Padres thanks to a great effort from Suppan.
4. Colorado will blow out Arizona.

This will make things a lot less complicated, as Philadelphia will have won the NL East to avoid a one-game playoff with New York, meaning the only extra contest that would have to be played is an NL Wild Card-deciding game between the Rockies and San Diego, in which I think Colorado will win. The National League would then look like this heading into the postseason:

1. Diamondbacks
2. Phillies
3. Cubs
4. Rockies

Phew.