NCAA Tournament preview: Midwest

The Midwest is a very, very deep region, as demonstrated by Arizona being the 12-seed. Louisville is number one, with Michigan State and Kansas rounding out the top three. Also landing in the Midwest is Wake Forest (#4) and West Virginia (#6), two teams that many feel can make nice runs in the NCAA Tournament.

Most intriguing first-round matchup: 10 USC vs. 7 Boston College. This game could really go either way. USC enters the Big Dance as one of the hottest teams in the country, as it reeled off four straight to win the Pac-10 Tournament to receive an automatic bid. Boston College can lay claim to wins over North Carolina and Duke, the royalty of the ACC. Don't be fooled by the Trojans' regular-season struggles; they are a very talented team. Freshman DeMar DeRozan was phenomenal in the conference tourney, and Taj Gibson, Daniel Hackett, and Dwight Lewis round out a very impressive foursome for Southern California. The Eagles are led by senior point guard Tyrese Rice, a player who has been known to come up big in big game situations. All things considered, I like USC to carry its momentum into the NCAA Tournament and win this game.

Biggest surprise: Utah earning a five-seed. Don't get me wrong; Utah is a very solid basketball team, but are the Utes worthy of a number five-seed? Their best win of the season was a 30-point drubbing of LSU, who is an eight-seed over in the South. Utah also has a one-point win over Gonzaga, two wins over San Diego State, and lone wins over BYU, UNLV, and New Mexico, but is that enough to warrant them that high of a seed? Actually, the Utes may have been better off getting a lower seed, as they will draw Arizona in the first round.

Biggest sleeper: #12 Arizona. Many are debating whether or not the Wildcats belong in the tournament, and I don't see why. Arizona has non-conference wins over Kansas, Gonzaga, and San Diego State, plus victories inside the Pac-10 over Washington, UCLA, and USC. Not too bad, huh? With a trio of Chase Budinger, Jordan Hill, and Nic Wise, the Wildcats can accomplish great things in the Dance.

Cinderella: #13 Cleveland State. The Horizon League champs enter the NCAA Tournament as a very dangerous 13-seed. The Vikings are very athletic and can certainly cause matchup problems for many teams in the Dance. They obviously have a very tough first-round draw against an extremely talented Wake Forest squad, but I have them pulling off the upset and reaching the Sweet 16.

Region winner: #1 Louisville. As I stated before, there is a ton of talent in the Midwest region, but I think Louisville is clearly the best of the bunch. Terrence Williams and Earl Clark make for one of the most deadly inside-out combinations in the country, and Samardo Samuels appears to be coming into his own at the right time.

Issues with seeding: I already mentioned Utah being seeded too high. I also think Ohio State may have been seeded a tad too low and you could make an argument for Wake Forest being a three, but other than that everything looks good.

Projecting the NCAA Tournament seeds

1: Connecticut, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Louisville
2: Oklahoma, Memphis, Michigan State, Duke
3: Wake Forest, Missouri, Syracuse, Villanova
4: Gonzaga, Kansas, Washington, Purdue
5: Arizona State, Florida State, Xavier, Illinois
6: UCLA, California, West Virginia, Ohio State
7: Marquette, Clemson, Butler, Texas
8: Utah, LSU, Tennessee, Texas A&M
9: Oklahoma State, BYU, Boston College, Michigan
10: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Penn State, Maryland
11: UNLV, Dayton, Temple, USC
12: Siena, Mississippi State, Cleveland State, Utah State
13: Western Kentucky, Northern Iowa, Virginia Commonwealth, Stephen F. Austin
14: North Dakota State, American, Robert Morris, Morgan State
15: Binghamton, Radford, Portland State, East Tennessee State
16: Alabama State, Morehead State, California State Northridge, Chattanooga

Projecting the NCAA Tournament field

ACC (7)

Automatic bid: Duke
At large: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College, Maryland
Bubble: None

AMERICA EAST (1)

Automatic bid: Binghamton

ATLANTIC-10 (3)

Automatic bid: Temple
At large: Xavier, Dayton
Bubble: None

BIG 12 (6)

Automatic bid: Missouri
At large: Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Bubble: None

BIG EAST (7)

Automatic bid: Louisville
At large: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia
Bubble: None

BIG SKY (1)

Automatic bid: Portland State

BIG SOUTH (1)

Automatic bid: Radford

BIG TEN (8)

Automatic bid: Purdue
At large: Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State
Bubble: None

BIG WEST (1)

Automatic bid: California State Northridge

COLONIAL ATHLETIC (1)

Automatic bid: Virginia Commonwealth

CONFERENCE USA (1)

Automatic bid: Memphis

HORIZON LEAGUE (2)

Automatic bid: Cleveland State
At large: Butler
Bubble: None

IVY LEAGUE (1)

Automatic bid: Cornell

MAAC (1)

Automatic bid: Siena

MAC (1)

Automatic bid: Akron

MEAC (1)

Automatic bid: Morgan State

MISSOURI VALLEY (1)

Automatic bid: Northern Iowa

MOUNTAIN WEST (3)

Automatic bid: Utah
At large: BYU, UNLV
Bubble: San Diego State

NORTHEAST (1)

Automatic bid: Robert Morris

OHIO VALLEY (1)

Automatic bid: Morehead State

PAC-10 (6)

Automatic bid: USC
At large: Arizona State, UCLA, Washington, California, Arizona
Bubble: None

PATRIOT LEAGUE (1)

Automatic bid: American

SEC (3)

Automatic bid: Mississippi State
At large: LSU, Tennessee
Bubble: None

SOUTHERN LEAGUE (1)

Automatic bid: Chattanooga

SOUTHLAND (1)

Automatic bid: Stephen F. Austin

SUN BELT (1)

Automatic bid: Western Kentucky

SWAC (1)

Automatic bid: Alabama State

WAC (1)

Automatic bid: Utah State

WEST COAST (1)

Automatic bid: Gonzaga
At large: None
Bubble: Saint Mary's

Projecting the NCAA Tournament field

ACC (6)

Automatic bid: North Carolina
At large: Wake Forest, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College
Bubble: Maryland

AMERICA EAST (1)

Automatic bid: Binghamton

ATLANTIC SUN (1)

Automatic bid: East Tennessee State

ATLANTIC-10 (2)

Automatic bid: Duquesne
At large: Xavier
Bubble: Dayton

BIG 12 (7)

Automatic bid: Baylor
At large: Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M
Bubble: Oklahoma State

BIG EAST (7)

Automatic bid: Louisville
At large: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia
Bubble: None

BIG SKY (1)

Automatic bid: Portland State

BIG SOUTH (1)

Automatic bid: Radford

BIG TEN (8)

Automatic bid: Michigan State
At large: Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State
Bubble: None

BIG WEST (1)

Automatic bid: Pacific

COLONIAL ATHLETIC (1)

Automatic bid: Virginia Commonwealth

CONFERENCE USA (1)

Automatic bid: Memphis

HORIZON LEAGUE (2)

Automatic bid: Cleveland State
At large: Butler
Bubble: None

IVY LEAGUE (1)

Automatic bid: Cornell

MAAC (1)

Automatic bid: Siena

MAC (1)

Automatic bid: Buffalo

MEAC (1)

Automatic bid: Morgan State

MISSOURI VALLEY (1)

Automatic bid: Northern Iowa

MOUNTAIN WEST (4)

Automatic bid: San Diego State
At large: Utah, BYU, UNLV
Bubble: None

NORTHEAST (1)

Automatic bid: Robert Morris

OHIO VALLEY (1)

Automatic bid: Morehead State

PAC-10 (6)

Automatic bid: USC
At large: Arizona State, UCLA, Washington, California, Arizona
Bubble: None

PATRIOT LEAGUE (1)

Automatic bid: American

SEC (2)

Automatic bid: Auburn
At large: LSU
Bubble: Tennessee

SOUTHERN LEAGUE (1)

Automatic bid: Chattanooga

SOUTHLAND (1)

Automatic bid: Stephen F. Austin

SUMMIT LEAGUE (1)

Automatic bid: North Dakota State

SUN BELT (1)

Automatic bid: Western Kentucky

SWAC (1)

Automatic bid: Alabama State

WAC (1)

Automatic bid: Nevada

WEST COAST (1)

Automatic bid: Gonzaga
At large: None
Bubble: Saint Mary's

Projecting the NCAA Tournament field

ACC (7)

Automatic bid: North Carolina
At large: Wake Forest, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College, Miami
Bubble: Virginia Tech

AMERICA EAST (1)

Automatic bid: UMBC

ATLANTIC-10 (2)

Automatic bid: Dayton
At large: Xavier
Bubble: None

ATLANTIC SUN (1)

Automatic bid: East Tennessee State

BIG 12 (5)

Automatic bid: Missouri
At large: Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M
Bubble: None

BIG EAST (7)

Automatic bid: Connecticut
At large: Pittsburgh, Louisville, Syracuse, Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia
Bubble: Providence

BIG SKY (1)

Automatic bid: Weber State

BIG SOUTH (1)

Automatic bid: Radford

BIG TEN (8)

Automatic bid: Michigan State
At large: Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin
Bubble: Northwestern

BIG WEST (1)

Automatic bid: Pacific

COLONIAL ATHLETIC (1)

Automatic bid: George Mason

CONFERENCE USA (1)

Automatic bid: Memphis

HORIZON LEAGUE (2)

Automatic bid: Cleveland State
At large: Butler
Bubble: None

IVY LEAGUE (1)

Automatic bid: Cornell

MAAC (1)

Automatic bid: Siena

MAC (1)

Automatic bid: Buffalo

MEAC (1)

Automatic bid: Morgan State

MISSOURI VALLEY (1)

Automatic bid: Northern Iowa

MOUNTAIN WEST (4)

Automatic bid: New Mexico
At large: UNLV, Utah, BYU
Bubble: None

NORTHEAST (1)

Automatic bid: Robert Morris

OHIO VALLEY (1)

Automatic bid: Morehead State

PAC-10 (5)

Automatic bid: Arizona State
At large: UCLA, Arizona, Washington, California
Bubble: None

PATRIOT LEAGUE (1)

Automatic bid: American

SEC (2)

Automatic bid: Auburn
At large: LSU
Bubble: Tennessee, South Carolina

SOUTHERN LEAGUE (1)

Automatic bid: College of Charleston

SOUTHLAND (1)

Automatic bid: Stephen F. Austin

SUMMIT LEAGUE (1)

Automatic bid: North Dakota State

SUN BELT (1)

Automatic bid: Troy

SWAC (1)

Automatic bid: Alabama State

WAC (1)

Automatic bid: Nevada

WEST COAST (2)

Automatic bid: Portland
At large: Gonzaga
Bubble: None

The Bubble

ACC

Boston College (20-10, 8-7)

Signature wins: at North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, at Maryland
Other notable wins: Virginia Tech, UAB, Providence
Key losses: at Saint Louis, Harvard, swept by Miami
Remaining games: Georgia Tech
Breakdown: Boston College certainly did not do itself any favors by losing to North Carolina State on Wednesday, but it should still have enough quality wins to be worthy of the NCAA Tournament. However, if the Eagles fall to Georgia Tech in their season finale, things could get messy, as BC would then finish at a mediocre 8-8 in conference play with numerous bad losses on top of that.

Virginia Tech (17-12, 7-8)

Signature wins: at Wake Forest, at Clemson, Boston College, at Miami
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: at Georgia, at Virginia, swept by Duke
Remaining games: at Florida State
Breakdown: The only thing keeping the Hokies alive right now is their very impressive road wins. If Virginia Tech manages to take out Florida State in its last game, then it may very well find itself in the Big Dance. Still, the Hokies have lost five of their last six, including a 14-point loss to Virginia. Plus, they lost to Georgia earlier in the year. Those two defeats could be what ends up dooming VT on Selection Sunday. Either way, a win over the Seminoles and then making some noise in the ACC Tournament should get them into the NCAAs.

Maryland (18-11, 7-8)

Signature wins: North Carolina, Michigan State, Miami
Other notable wins: Michigan, Virginia Tech
Key losses: Morgan State, swept by Duke (lost by 41 at Duke), 29-point loss to Clemson, 27-point loss to Georgetown
Remaining games: at Virginia
Breakdown: What is really going to hurt Maryland come Selection Sunday is its dubious assortment of bad losses. The Terrapins may have gotten blown out one too many times to make the NCAA Tournament, its wins over North Carolina and Michigan State notwithstanding. Also notable is the fact that none of the Terps' big wins came on the road. Maryland must beat Virginia and then probably has to win some games in the ACC Tourney to receive an invitation to the Big Dance.

Miami (17-11, 6-9)

Signature wins: Wake Forest, swept Boston College, at Kentucky, Florida State
Other notable wins: Maryland
Key losses: at Georgia Tech
Remaining games: North Carolina State
Breakdown: The Hurricanes' loss to Georgia Tech may have been the final nail in the coffin to their at-large hopes. Miami can now do no better than 7-9 in conference play, and a good portion of its signature wins is losing steam. The 'Canes will more than likely have to make a deep run in the ACC Tournament (they might even have to make the final) to earn a bid. Of course, they have to beat N.C. State, first.


BIG 12

Texas A&M (22-8, 8-7)

Signature wins: Arizona, LSU, Texas
Other notable wins: Oklahoma State
Key losses: at Tulsa
Remaining games: Missouri
Breakdown: The Aggies' at-large hopes probably rest on Saturday's game against Missouri. If they can pull out a win over the Tigers, they will probably find themselves in the Dance barring a first round exit in the Big 12 Tournament. A win over Missouri would not only give Texas A&M a much-needed signature victory, but it would also put it over .500 in conference play. 23 wins looks pretty good, too. But, if A&M falls in its season finale, it will have some work to do in the conference tourney to garner a bid from the selection committee.

Oklahoma State (20-9, 9-6)

Signature wins: Texas
Other notable wins: Texas A&M, Kansas State
Key losses: 25-point loss at Texas
Remaining games: at Oklahoma
Breakdown: The Cowboys' ultimate downfall may be their lack of quality wins. The only victory that really stands out on their résumé is the one over Texas, and the Longhorns aren't even ranked. Oklahoma State absolutely has to take down Oklahoma on Saturday afternoon, or else its at-large hopes will hinge on a deep run in the conference tournament.

BIG EAST

West Virginia (21-9, 10-8)

Signature wins: 21-point win over Villanova, at Ohio State, 27-point win over Providence, at Georgetown
Other notable wins: Notre Dame
Key losses: None
Remaining games: Louisville
Breakdown: Even though their overall résumé isn't particularly eye-catching, the Mountaineers will more than likely be in the tournament because of their great computer numbers. The 20+ point wins over Villanova and Providence don't hurt, either. West Virginia would obviously lock up a bid if it is able to take out Louisville on Saturday night, but it probably doesn't even need to unless it plans on losing in the first round of the Big East Tournament.

Providence (18-12, 10-8)

Signature wins: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, swept Cincinnati
Other notable wins: Rhode Island
Key losses: Northeastern, 33-point loss at Connecticut, 27-point loss at West Virginia
Remaining games: None
Breakdown: Unfortunately for the Friars, their regular season résumé will most likely not be gaudy enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament. Had they won at Villanova in their season finale, we would be talking about what seed Providence was likely to earn in the Dance, but the Wildcats beat the Friars by 17. Providence needs to go on a nice run in the Big East Tournament to win over the selection committee.

Georgetown (15-13, 6-11)

Signature wins: at Connecticut, Memphis, Syracuse, at Villanova
Other notable wins: 27-point win over Maryland, Providence
Key losses: Swept by Cincinnati, Seton Hall, St. John's
Remaining schedule: DePaul
Breakdown: Obviously, Georgetown is going to have to make some noise in the conference tournament if it wants any chance of making the NCAAs. Its chances were starting to look better after taking out Villanova on the road to add to its list of signature wins, but then the Hoyas went and lost to St. John's, all but ending their at-large hopes. Georgetown probably has to get to the final in the Big East Tourney to earn a bid.

BIG TEN

Michigan (18-12, 8-9)

Signature wins: Duke, UCLA, Purdue, Illinois, Penn State, Minnesota, swept Northwestern
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: Swept by Ohio State and Wisconsin, at Iowa
Remaining games: at Minnesota
Breakdown: Michigan's résumé is starting to look better and better now that Penn State has locked up an NCAA Tournament bid and Northwestern is also making a case to make the field of 65. If the Wolverines win at Minnesota on Saturday, they are a lock. If they lose, they will still probably be in, but looking good in the Big Ten Tournament won't hurt.

Wisconsin (18-11, 9-8)

Signature wins: Illinois, Ohio State, swept Penn State and Michigan
Other notable wins: at Virginia Tech, 29-point win over Northwestern
Key losses: at Iowa, swept by Purdue
Remaining games: Indiana
Breakdown: Wisconsin looks to be in good shape, but it absolutely cannot afford to lose to Indiana in its season finale. The sweeps over Penn State and Michigan is what really makes the Badgers' case all the more legitimate. Still, if Wisconsin falters against the Hoosiers or in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, things might get testy.

Northwestern (17-11, 8-9)

Signature wins: at Michigan State, at Purdue, Ohio State, Florida State, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: at Iowa, 29-point loss at Wisconsin, 27-point loss at Minnesota
Remaining games: at Ohio State
Breakdown: Northwestern has gotten hot and is re-stating its case to make the NCAA Tournament. It certainly has a solid array of quality wins, particulary on the road where the Wildcats have beaten both Michigan State and Purdue. If they win at Ohio State on Sunday to add yet another impressive road win to their résumé plus a sweep of the Buckeyes to put the cherry on top, Northwestern will more than likely find itself on the committee's good side come Selection Sunday.

MOUNTAIN WEST

BYU (23-6, 11-4)

Signature wins: Utah
Other notable wins: Swept San Diego State, at Utah State, New Mexico
Key losses: Swept by UNLV
Remaining games: Air Force
Breakdown: BYU has taken care of business against all of its inferior opponents this season, and that is very important to the selection committee. However, it has to avoid a slip-up against Air Force, as the Cougars might not have enough signature victories to make up for such a loss. Still, even if they do fall to the Falcons, they will get an opportunity to redeem themselves in the conference tournament.

PAC-10

Arizona (18-12, 8-9)

Signature wins: Kansas, UCLA, Washington, Gonzaga
Other notable wins: San Diego State, USC
Key losses: Swept by California and Arizona State
Remaining games: Stanford
Breakdown: Over the course of three weeks, Arizona went from being in great shape to being right on the fence. After a stretch where the Wildcats won seven in a row, including wins over Washington and UCLA, Arizona has now dropped four straight, one of which was a 16-point loss at Washington State. You still have to believe that if the 'Cats beat Stanford on Saturday to finish 9-9 in the Pac-10 that their nice array of quality wins will carry them to the Dance, but a solid performance in the conference tournament might also be needed. 'Zona is certainly digging its own grave; that's for sure.

SEC

South Carolina (20-8, 9-6)

Signature wins: Swept Kentucky
Other notable wins: Florida, at Baylor
Key losses: College of Charleston, swept by Tennessee
Remaining games: at Georgia
Breakdown: South Carolina is in deep, deep trouble, losing three of its last five, two of those losses coming against non-tournament teams in Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. The other? To conference bubble rival Tennessee, who probably locked up an at-large berth by completing the season sweep of the Gamecocks. South Carolina has to beat Georgia and then go deep into the SEC Tournament to receive an invitation to the NCAAs. Heck, it might even have to win the whole conference tourney.

Kentucky (19-11, 8-7)

Signature wins: Swept Tennessee, West Virginia
Other notable wins: Florida, Kansas State
Key losses: Georgia, VMI
Remaining games: at Florida
Breakdown: Wow. Just wow. Those are the only thoughts one can possibly have after Kentucky lost at home to Georgia on senior day when it was fighting for an NCAA Tournament berth. Oh, and did I mention they lost at home to Georgia? The Wildcats have to win at Florida to close out the season if they want any shot at an at-large bid. Doing so might get them in, as it would give them sweeps over both the Gators and Tennessee. Still, I really think Kentucky needs to go on a nice run in the conference tournament. That loss to the Bulldogs is really going to haunt them.

OTHER TEAMS FROM OTHER CONFERENCES

Dayton (24-6, 10-5)

Signature wins: at Marquette, Xavier
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: at Massachusetts
Remaining games: Duquesne
Breakdown: After failing to complete the season sweep of Xavier, Dayton definitely needs to, at the very least, get to the Atlantic-10 title game to earn an at-large bid. Outside of the win in its first meeting with the Musketeers and a victory at Marquette, the Flyers don't have anything else to hang their hats on. One might even venture to say that Dayton has to win its conference tournament in order to go dancing.

Saint Mary's (24-5, 10-4)

Signature wins: None
Other notable wins: Providence, at San Diego State, Utah State
Key losses: Swept by Gonzaga, 18-point losses at Santa Clara and home against Portland
Remaining games: None
Breakdown: Patrick Mills will be back for the WCC Tournament, so that will obviously be a huge lift for the Gaels. Saint Mary's might be the most difficult team for the selection committee to judge. How much will they take Mills' injury into account when evaluating the Gaels? It remains to be seen, but it would really behoove Saint Mary's to win its conference tournament, as it just does not have the signature wins that most of the other bubble teams can lay claim to.

Projecting the NCAA Tournament field

ACC (6)

Automatic bid: North Carolina
At large: Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College
Bubble: Miami, Virginia Tech, Maryland

AMERICA EAST (1)

Automatic bid: Vermont

ATLANTIC-10 (2)

Automatic bid: Dayton
At large: Xavier
Bubble: None

ATLANTIC SUN (1)

Automatic bid: Belmont

BIG 12 (4)

Automatic bid: Missouri
At large: Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas
Bubble: Texas A&M

BIG EAST (7)

Automatic bid: Connecticut
At large: Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Bubble: Providence, Georgetown

BIG SKY (1)

Automatic bid: Weber State

BIG SOUTH (1)

Automatic bid: Liberty

BIG TEN (9)

Automatic bid: Michigan State
At large: Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State, Northwestern
Bubble: None

BIG WEST (1)

Automatic bid: Pacific

COLONIAL ATHLETIC (1)

Automatic bid: George Mason

CONFERENCE USA (1)

Automatic bid: Memphis

HORIZON LEAGUE (2)

Automatic bid: Green Bay
At large: Butler
Bubble: None

IVY LEAGUE (1)

Automatic bid: Cornell

MAAC (1)

Automatic bid: Siena

MAC (1)

Automatic bid: Buffalo

MEAC (1)

Automatic bid: Morgan State

MISSOURI VALLEY (1)

Automatic bid: Creighton

MOUNTAIN WEST (4)

Automatic bid: New Mexico
At large: UNLV, Utah, BYU
Bubble: None

NORTHEAST (1)

Automatic bid: Robert Morris

OHIO VALLEY (1)

Automatic bid: Tennessee-Martin

PAC-10 (5)

Automatic bid: Arizona State
At large: UCLA, Washington, Arizona, California
Bubble: None

PATRIOT LEAGUE (1)

Automatic bid: American

SEC (3)

Automatic bid: Auburn
At large: LSU, Tennessee
Bubble: South Carolina, Kentucky

SOUTHERN LEAGUE (1)

Automatic bid: Davidson

SOUTHLAND (1)

Automatic bid: Stephen F. Austin

SUMMIT LEAGUE (1)

Automatic bid: North Dakota State

SUN BELT (1)

Automatic bid: Troy

SWAC (1)

Automatic bid: Alabama State

WAC (1)

Automatic bid: Nevada

WEST COAST (2)

Automatic bid: San Diego
At large: Gonzaga
Bubble: Saint Mary's

The Bubble

ACC

Boston College (20-9, 8-6)

Signature wins: at North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, at Maryland
Other notable wins: Virginia Tech, UAB, Providence
Key losses: at Saint Louis, Harvard, swept by Miami
Remaining games: at North Carolina State, Georgia Tech
Breakdown: The Eagles are in the same position they were at the last bubble watch, as they have not played a game over the past week. Boston College should have put together enough quality wins to be safe come Selection Sunday, its wins over North Carolina and Duke obviously the most notable. Still, BC better avoid getting upset by either NC State or Georgia Tech, or its at-large chances might take a bit of a hit.

Miami (17-10, 6-8)

Signature wins: Wake Forest, swept Boston College, at Kentucky, Florida State
Other notable wins: Maryland
Key losses: None
Remaining games: at Georgia Tech, North Carolina State
Breakdown: The Hurricanes took care of business against Virginia and now must take out Georgia Tech and NC State to finish .500 in the ACC. Miami probably has enough signature wins to sneak into the NCAA Tournament with an 8-8 record in conference play, but it would behoove the 'Canes to have a good showing in the ACC Tournament to secure themselves a spot.

Virginia Tech (17-11, 7-7)

Signature wins: at Wake Forest, at Clemson, Boston College, at Miami
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: at Georgia, at Virginia
Remaining games: North Carolina, at Florida State
Breakdown: Virginia Tech could have clinched a spot in the Big Dance had it beaten Duke this past weekend, but it fell just short, and it doesn't get any easier, as the Hokies must now gear up for North Carolina and FSU. A win over either of those two teams would most likely put VT in the Dance, especially if it is able to defeat the Tar Heels, which would probably guarantee the Hokies a berth in the field of 65. However, if Virginia Tech falls short in both contests, it will have to put forth some kind of performance in the ACC Tournament to earn an invite.

Maryland (18-10, 7-7)

Signature wins: North Carolina, Michigan State, Miami
Other notable wins: Michigan, Virginia Tech
Key losses: Morgan State, swept by Duke (lost by 41 at Duke), 29-point loss to Clemson, 27-point loss to Georgetown
Remaining games: Wake Forest, at Virginia
Breakdown: The Terrapins have some very nice wins on their résumé, particularly the two against North Carolina and Michigan State. Their win over Michigan also holds a bit more weight now, but the question is whether or not all of the ugly losses Maryland has endured will overshadow the bright side of their case. If the Terps beat Wake Forest on Tuesday, they are as good as in, but if they fall to the Demon Deacons, they will have to go on a nice run in the ACC Tourney to reach the NCAAs.

BIG 12

Kansas State (20-9, 8-6)

Signature wins: Missouri, at Texas
Other notable wins: at Texas A&M
Key losses: at Iowa, at Oregon, 22-point loss at Nebraska
Remaining games: at Oklahoma State, Colorado
Breakdown: Kansas State is a classic, classic bubble team. It has a very solid overall record, a respectable in-conference record, and a few quality wins scattered about its résumé. Still, the Wildcats' shortage of signature victories might be their ultimate downfall. Outside of one nice stretch from late January to early February where K-State took out Missouri, Texas, and Texas A&M, there isn't much else to look at. The Wildcats must win at Oklahoma State on Tuesday and then avoid a slip-up against Colorado on Mar. 7. Not only that, but Kansas State might also have to string together a couple of wins in the Big 12 Tournament.

Texas A&M (21-8, 7-7)

Signature wins: Arizona, LSU, Texas
Other notable wins: Oklahoma State
Key losses: at Tulsa
Remaining games: at Colorado, Missouri
Breakdown: The Aggies are in a very similar position to Kansas State in that it does not have many notable wins on its résumé. However, one thing Texas A&M can say that the Wildcats cannot is that it does not have any real bad losses. Yes, it lost by 11 at Tulsa, but Tulsa is a decent squad. Still, A&M lost its only meeting against Kansas State this season, and the fact that it is only .500 in conference play comapred to K-State's 8-6 mark puts the Aggies at a slight disadvantage should it come down to these two teams for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. On the bright side, if Texas A&M is able to to win its final two games, one of which would be against Missouri, it may very well find itself on the right side of the bubble.

BIG EAST

West Virginia (20-9, 9-7)

Signature wins: Villanova, at Ohio State, 27-point win over Providence, at Georgetown
Other notable wins: Notre Dame
Key losses: None
Remaining games: DePaul, Louisville
Breakdown: Fortunately for the Mountaineers, their win at Georgetown now holds a bit more weight thanks to the Hoyas' win over Villanova this past weekend. Still, their win at Ohio State is losing steam, and their victory over Notre Dame is simply not that impressive with the Irish's struggles this year. Either way, their blowout win over 'Nova should be their ticket to the Big Dance. If West Virginia can take out Louisville on the 7th, it will be a tournament team. However, a loss to the Cardinals and an early exit in the Big East Touranment could spell some trouble for WVU.

Providence (18-11, 10-7)

Signature wins: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, swept Cincinnati
Other notable wins: Rhode Island
Key losses: 33-point loss at Connecticut, 27-point loss at West Virginia, Northeastern
Remaining games: at Villanova
Breakdown: Providence escaped Rutgers with a victory, and if it is able to win at Villanova on the 5th, it will finish 11-7 in the Big East and may very well find itself on the Selection Committee's good side. However, even with a win against 'Nova, it would help the Friars to put forth a good performance in the conference tournament to assure everyone that they are, in fact, for real.

Cincinnati (18-11, 8-8)

Signature wins: Swept Georgetown, West Virginia
Other notable wins: Notre Dame, UNLV, UAB
Key losses: Swept by Providence, 34-point loss at Marquette, 24-point loss at Syracuse
Remaining games: at South Florida, Seton Hall
Breakdown: After taking down West Virginia, it looked like the Bearcats were putting themselves on the right side of the bubble, but then they go to the Carrier Dome and get plastered by Syracuse and they are right back at square one. The main difference between Cincinnati and Providence is that the Friars swept the 'Cats during the regular season, and that not only gives them leverage should a spot be decided between these two squads, but it also assured them a winning record in Big East play. Cincy must win its final two games and then make noise in the Big East Tournament to have any chance of earnign an at-large bid now.

Georgetown (15-12, 6-10)

Signature wins: at Connecticut, Memphis, Syracuse, at Villanova
Other notable wins: 27-point win over Maryland, Providence
Key losses: Swept by Cincinnati, at Seton Hall
Remaining games: at St. John's, DePaul
Breakdown: Seriously, show me a bubble team with better quality wins than Georgetown? You really can't, which is what is going to make the Hoyas the most difficult squad for the Selection Committee to judge. They have a great win against the number one team in the nation in UConn (and it was on the road), and also have a victory over another top five squad in Memphis. Beating Villanova over the weekend certainly saved Georgetown's season, and if the Hoyas win their final two contests and have a nice showing in the Big East Tournament, they have a very good shot at finding themselves in the Big Dance.

Notre Dame (16-12, 7-9)

Signature wins: 33-point win over Louisville, at Texas, at Providence
Other notable wins: Georgetown
Key losses: at St. John's, 26-point loss at UCLA
Remaining games: Villanova, St. John's
Breakdown: Losing at Connecticut on Saturday may very well have did the Fighting Irish in. Even if Notre Dame wins its final two games, it will need to go deep into the Big East Tournament to garner an at-large bid, something I'm not even sure the Irish are capable of. Notre Dame can also do no better than .500 in conference play. Its NCAA Tournament chances are slim at best.

BIG TEN

Minnesota (20-8, 8-8)

Signature wins: Louisville, Illinois, Ohio State, Penn State, at Wisconsin
Other notable wins: 27-point win over Northwestern
Key losses: Swept by Michigan State (lost by 29 at MSU)
Remaining games: Wisconsin, Michigan
Breakdown: If you're basing on it what Minnesota has accomplished over the course of the entire season, then it should, without question, be a tournament team. However, its recent struggles (the Golden Gophers have gone 4-7 since Jan. 18) may very well have put Minnesota on the bubble, plus the fact that the Gophers currently sit at 8-8 in Big Ten play. A win over either Wisconsin or Michigan should put any bubble talk to rest, but if Minnesota fails to do so, expect the Golden Gophers to be one of the topics of discussion come Selection Sunday.

Penn State (20-9, 9-7)

Signature wins: at Michigan State, Purdue, at Illinois, Minnesota
Other notable wins: Michigan, Northwestern
Key losses: None
Remaining games: Illinois, at Iowa
Breakdown: Penn State dodged a potential disaster against Indiana this past weekend, and now it is in a great position to essentially clinch a berth in the Big Dance. The Nittany Lions probably have enough quality wins already, but completing a season sweep of Illinois would be the cherry on top. However, if Penn State does fall against Illinois, it must avoid losing at Iowa.

Michigan (18-12, 8-9)

Signature wins: Duke, UCLA, Purdue, Illinois, Penn State, Minnesota
Other notable wins: Swept Northwestern
Key losses: Swept by Ohio State and Wisconsin, at Iowa
Remaining games: at Minnesota
Breakdown: Despite being swept by two conference rivals, I think the Wolverines have done more than enough to merit themselves an NCAA Tournament berth. Still, it would be nice if Michigan was able to beat Minnesota on Mar. 7, which would give it the season sweep of the Golden Gophers (even though the Wolverines might not even need it).

Wisconsin (18-10, 9-7)

Signature wins: Illinois, Ohio State, swept Penn State and Michigan
Other notable wins: at Virginia Tech, Northwestern
Key losses: at Iowa
Remaining games: at Minnesota, Indiana
Breakdown: Sweeping Michigan probably all but clinched a spot in the NCAA Tournament for the Badgers, who also own two wins over Penn State and victories over Big Ten rivals Illinois and Ohio State on the year. Wisconsin also assured itself at least a .500 record in conference play with its win over the Wolverines on Sunday. The Badgers will more than likely be dancing.

Ohio State (18-9, 8-8)

Signature wins: Swept Michigan, Purdue, at Miami, Minnesota, Penn State
Other notable wins: Notre Dame
Key losses: Swept by Illinois, 28-point loss to West Virginia, 25-point loss at Purdue
Remaining games: at Iowa, Northwestern
Breakdown: The Buckeyes are almost an exact clone of Minnesota in that they started out the season hot but have been coming apart toward the end. Ohio State has lost four of its last five games, but if it is able to hold on and beat Iowa and Northwestern to close out, it should be fine. The Buckeyes can probably even go 1-1 over its last two contests and still feel safe come Selection Sunday thanks to their nice arsenal of signature wins.

MOUNTAIN WEST

BYU (22-6, 10-4)

Signature wins: Utah
Other notable wins: Swept San Diego State, at Utah State, New Mexico
Key losses: Swept by UNLV
Remaining games: at Wyoming, Air Force
Breakdown: Beating Utah was huge, but the Cougars still need to win their final two games of the season and avoid any slip-ups in the Mountain West Tournament to feel safe heading into Selection Sunday. Also good for BYU is that its win over New Mexico now has a bit more substance to it due to the fact that the Lobos are streaking.

PAC-10

No bubble teams.

SEC

Kentucky (19-10, 8-6)

Signature wins: Swept Tennessee, West Virginia, Florida
Other notable wins: Kansas State
Key losses: VMI
Remaining games: Georgia, at Florida
Breakdown: Kentucky missed a golden opportunity to increase its at-large chances by blowing a double-digit, second-half lead over LSU on Sunday, and now it faces two must-win games against Georgia and Florida to close out the season. If the Wildcats can win both of those games, that would give them sweeps of SEC rivals Tennessee and Florida which should be enough to carry them into the NCAA Tournament.

Tennessee (18-10, 9-5)

Signature wins: Marquette, swept Florida
Other notable wins: Georgetown, at Siena
Key losses: Swept by Kentucky
Remaining games: at South Carolina, Alabama
Breakdown: Getting a sweep of Florida was huge, but those two blowout losses to Kentucky almost nullify that accolade. The Volunteers must win at South Carolina in a bracket-buster game on the 5th and then take care of Alabama to finish out the season. Even then, Tennessee's lack of signature wins might force it to go deep into the SEC Tournament to receive an invite to the NCAAs.

South Carolina (20-7, 9-5)

Signature wins: Swept Kentucky, Florida
Other notable wins: at Baylor
Key losses: College of Charleston
Remaining games: Tennessee, at Georgia
Breakdown: Last week, I said that the Gamecocks could not afford to lose to Vanderbilt. Well, they did, and now they're in deep trouble because of it. South Carolina's résumé was pretty dull to begin with, and being 9-5 in the SEC doesn't look near as good as it would in other years. The Gamecocks now have to beat Tennessee and then defeat Georgia to have a shot at reaching the NCAAs, similar to what the Volunteers have to do. Also like the Vols, South Carolina might also have to make some noise in the conference tournament.

OTHER TEAMS FROM OTHER CONFERENCES

Butler (25-4, 15-3)

Signature wins: at Xavier, at Davidson
Other notable wins: Northwestern, UAB
Key losses: Loyola (Illinois)
Remaining games: None
Breakdown: Butler won the Horizon League regular-season title, and more than likely, the Bulldogs will be playing in the NCAA Tournament whether or not they win their conference tourney. However, Butler cannot afford to lose in its first round game. Even in that scenario, the Bulldogs will still probably be safe, but you can never be too cautious.

Dayton (24-5, 10-4)

Signature wins: at Marquette, Xavier
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: at Massachusetts
Remaining games: at Xavier, Duquesne
Breakdown: The Flyers saved their at-large chances by beating Temple and avoiding a three-game losing streak on Saturday, but there is still more work to do. Dayton may very well have to complete the season sweep of Xavier and then beat Duquesne to earn an invite to the Big Dance. A second win over Xavier would probably do it, but if not, the Flyers are going to have to at least get to the Atlantic-10 Championship Game to get in.

Davidson (24-6, 17-2)

Signature wins: West Virginia
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: 18-point loss to Citadel
Remaining games: at Elon
Breakdown: Unlike Butler and Dayton, Davidson doesn't have the luxury of having a couple of solid signature wins to help its NCAA Tournament chances. Instead, the Wildcats have one nice win over unranked West Virginia, and that's it. Davidson most likely has to win the Southern League Tournament to get into the Dance, but if Stephen Curry is up to the challenge, that shouldn't be a problem.

Saint Mary's (24-5, 10-4)

Signature wins: None
Other notable wins: Providence, at San Diego State, Utah State
Key losses: Swept by Gonzaga, 18-point losses at Santa Clara and home against Portland
Remaining games: None
Breakdown: How much the Selection Committee will take Patrick Mills' injury into account is the big question here, but still, one player can only take a college team so far, and the Gaels just don't have the résumé deserving of an NCAA Tournament berth. They will probably have to win the WAC Tourney to get in.