The Bubble

ACC

Boston College (20-9, 8-6)

Signature wins: at North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, at Maryland
Other notable wins: Virginia Tech, UAB, Providence
Key losses: at Saint Louis, Harvard, swept by Miami
Remaining games: at North Carolina State, Georgia Tech
Breakdown: The Eagles are in the same position they were at the last bubble watch, as they have not played a game over the past week. Boston College should have put together enough quality wins to be safe come Selection Sunday, its wins over North Carolina and Duke obviously the most notable. Still, BC better avoid getting upset by either NC State or Georgia Tech, or its at-large chances might take a bit of a hit.

Miami (17-10, 6-8)

Signature wins: Wake Forest, swept Boston College, at Kentucky, Florida State
Other notable wins: Maryland
Key losses: None
Remaining games: at Georgia Tech, North Carolina State
Breakdown: The Hurricanes took care of business against Virginia and now must take out Georgia Tech and NC State to finish .500 in the ACC. Miami probably has enough signature wins to sneak into the NCAA Tournament with an 8-8 record in conference play, but it would behoove the 'Canes to have a good showing in the ACC Tournament to secure themselves a spot.

Virginia Tech (17-11, 7-7)

Signature wins: at Wake Forest, at Clemson, Boston College, at Miami
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: at Georgia, at Virginia
Remaining games: North Carolina, at Florida State
Breakdown: Virginia Tech could have clinched a spot in the Big Dance had it beaten Duke this past weekend, but it fell just short, and it doesn't get any easier, as the Hokies must now gear up for North Carolina and FSU. A win over either of those two teams would most likely put VT in the Dance, especially if it is able to defeat the Tar Heels, which would probably guarantee the Hokies a berth in the field of 65. However, if Virginia Tech falls short in both contests, it will have to put forth some kind of performance in the ACC Tournament to earn an invite.

Maryland (18-10, 7-7)

Signature wins: North Carolina, Michigan State, Miami
Other notable wins: Michigan, Virginia Tech
Key losses: Morgan State, swept by Duke (lost by 41 at Duke), 29-point loss to Clemson, 27-point loss to Georgetown
Remaining games: Wake Forest, at Virginia
Breakdown: The Terrapins have some very nice wins on their résumé, particularly the two against North Carolina and Michigan State. Their win over Michigan also holds a bit more weight now, but the question is whether or not all of the ugly losses Maryland has endured will overshadow the bright side of their case. If the Terps beat Wake Forest on Tuesday, they are as good as in, but if they fall to the Demon Deacons, they will have to go on a nice run in the ACC Tourney to reach the NCAAs.

BIG 12

Kansas State (20-9, 8-6)

Signature wins: Missouri, at Texas
Other notable wins: at Texas A&M
Key losses: at Iowa, at Oregon, 22-point loss at Nebraska
Remaining games: at Oklahoma State, Colorado
Breakdown: Kansas State is a classic, classic bubble team. It has a very solid overall record, a respectable in-conference record, and a few quality wins scattered about its résumé. Still, the Wildcats' shortage of signature victories might be their ultimate downfall. Outside of one nice stretch from late January to early February where K-State took out Missouri, Texas, and Texas A&M, there isn't much else to look at. The Wildcats must win at Oklahoma State on Tuesday and then avoid a slip-up against Colorado on Mar. 7. Not only that, but Kansas State might also have to string together a couple of wins in the Big 12 Tournament.

Texas A&M (21-8, 7-7)

Signature wins: Arizona, LSU, Texas
Other notable wins: Oklahoma State
Key losses: at Tulsa
Remaining games: at Colorado, Missouri
Breakdown: The Aggies are in a very similar position to Kansas State in that it does not have many notable wins on its résumé. However, one thing Texas A&M can say that the Wildcats cannot is that it does not have any real bad losses. Yes, it lost by 11 at Tulsa, but Tulsa is a decent squad. Still, A&M lost its only meeting against Kansas State this season, and the fact that it is only .500 in conference play comapred to K-State's 8-6 mark puts the Aggies at a slight disadvantage should it come down to these two teams for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. On the bright side, if Texas A&M is able to to win its final two games, one of which would be against Missouri, it may very well find itself on the right side of the bubble.

BIG EAST

West Virginia (20-9, 9-7)

Signature wins: Villanova, at Ohio State, 27-point win over Providence, at Georgetown
Other notable wins: Notre Dame
Key losses: None
Remaining games: DePaul, Louisville
Breakdown: Fortunately for the Mountaineers, their win at Georgetown now holds a bit more weight thanks to the Hoyas' win over Villanova this past weekend. Still, their win at Ohio State is losing steam, and their victory over Notre Dame is simply not that impressive with the Irish's struggles this year. Either way, their blowout win over 'Nova should be their ticket to the Big Dance. If West Virginia can take out Louisville on the 7th, it will be a tournament team. However, a loss to the Cardinals and an early exit in the Big East Touranment could spell some trouble for WVU.

Providence (18-11, 10-7)

Signature wins: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, swept Cincinnati
Other notable wins: Rhode Island
Key losses: 33-point loss at Connecticut, 27-point loss at West Virginia, Northeastern
Remaining games: at Villanova
Breakdown: Providence escaped Rutgers with a victory, and if it is able to win at Villanova on the 5th, it will finish 11-7 in the Big East and may very well find itself on the Selection Committee's good side. However, even with a win against 'Nova, it would help the Friars to put forth a good performance in the conference tournament to assure everyone that they are, in fact, for real.

Cincinnati (18-11, 8-8)

Signature wins: Swept Georgetown, West Virginia
Other notable wins: Notre Dame, UNLV, UAB
Key losses: Swept by Providence, 34-point loss at Marquette, 24-point loss at Syracuse
Remaining games: at South Florida, Seton Hall
Breakdown: After taking down West Virginia, it looked like the Bearcats were putting themselves on the right side of the bubble, but then they go to the Carrier Dome and get plastered by Syracuse and they are right back at square one. The main difference between Cincinnati and Providence is that the Friars swept the 'Cats during the regular season, and that not only gives them leverage should a spot be decided between these two squads, but it also assured them a winning record in Big East play. Cincy must win its final two games and then make noise in the Big East Tournament to have any chance of earnign an at-large bid now.

Georgetown (15-12, 6-10)

Signature wins: at Connecticut, Memphis, Syracuse, at Villanova
Other notable wins: 27-point win over Maryland, Providence
Key losses: Swept by Cincinnati, at Seton Hall
Remaining games: at St. John's, DePaul
Breakdown: Seriously, show me a bubble team with better quality wins than Georgetown? You really can't, which is what is going to make the Hoyas the most difficult squad for the Selection Committee to judge. They have a great win against the number one team in the nation in UConn (and it was on the road), and also have a victory over another top five squad in Memphis. Beating Villanova over the weekend certainly saved Georgetown's season, and if the Hoyas win their final two contests and have a nice showing in the Big East Tournament, they have a very good shot at finding themselves in the Big Dance.

Notre Dame (16-12, 7-9)

Signature wins: 33-point win over Louisville, at Texas, at Providence
Other notable wins: Georgetown
Key losses: at St. John's, 26-point loss at UCLA
Remaining games: Villanova, St. John's
Breakdown: Losing at Connecticut on Saturday may very well have did the Fighting Irish in. Even if Notre Dame wins its final two games, it will need to go deep into the Big East Tournament to garner an at-large bid, something I'm not even sure the Irish are capable of. Notre Dame can also do no better than .500 in conference play. Its NCAA Tournament chances are slim at best.

BIG TEN

Minnesota (20-8, 8-8)

Signature wins: Louisville, Illinois, Ohio State, Penn State, at Wisconsin
Other notable wins: 27-point win over Northwestern
Key losses: Swept by Michigan State (lost by 29 at MSU)
Remaining games: Wisconsin, Michigan
Breakdown: If you're basing on it what Minnesota has accomplished over the course of the entire season, then it should, without question, be a tournament team. However, its recent struggles (the Golden Gophers have gone 4-7 since Jan. 18) may very well have put Minnesota on the bubble, plus the fact that the Gophers currently sit at 8-8 in Big Ten play. A win over either Wisconsin or Michigan should put any bubble talk to rest, but if Minnesota fails to do so, expect the Golden Gophers to be one of the topics of discussion come Selection Sunday.

Penn State (20-9, 9-7)

Signature wins: at Michigan State, Purdue, at Illinois, Minnesota
Other notable wins: Michigan, Northwestern
Key losses: None
Remaining games: Illinois, at Iowa
Breakdown: Penn State dodged a potential disaster against Indiana this past weekend, and now it is in a great position to essentially clinch a berth in the Big Dance. The Nittany Lions probably have enough quality wins already, but completing a season sweep of Illinois would be the cherry on top. However, if Penn State does fall against Illinois, it must avoid losing at Iowa.

Michigan (18-12, 8-9)

Signature wins: Duke, UCLA, Purdue, Illinois, Penn State, Minnesota
Other notable wins: Swept Northwestern
Key losses: Swept by Ohio State and Wisconsin, at Iowa
Remaining games: at Minnesota
Breakdown: Despite being swept by two conference rivals, I think the Wolverines have done more than enough to merit themselves an NCAA Tournament berth. Still, it would be nice if Michigan was able to beat Minnesota on Mar. 7, which would give it the season sweep of the Golden Gophers (even though the Wolverines might not even need it).

Wisconsin (18-10, 9-7)

Signature wins: Illinois, Ohio State, swept Penn State and Michigan
Other notable wins: at Virginia Tech, Northwestern
Key losses: at Iowa
Remaining games: at Minnesota, Indiana
Breakdown: Sweeping Michigan probably all but clinched a spot in the NCAA Tournament for the Badgers, who also own two wins over Penn State and victories over Big Ten rivals Illinois and Ohio State on the year. Wisconsin also assured itself at least a .500 record in conference play with its win over the Wolverines on Sunday. The Badgers will more than likely be dancing.

Ohio State (18-9, 8-8)

Signature wins: Swept Michigan, Purdue, at Miami, Minnesota, Penn State
Other notable wins: Notre Dame
Key losses: Swept by Illinois, 28-point loss to West Virginia, 25-point loss at Purdue
Remaining games: at Iowa, Northwestern
Breakdown: The Buckeyes are almost an exact clone of Minnesota in that they started out the season hot but have been coming apart toward the end. Ohio State has lost four of its last five games, but if it is able to hold on and beat Iowa and Northwestern to close out, it should be fine. The Buckeyes can probably even go 1-1 over its last two contests and still feel safe come Selection Sunday thanks to their nice arsenal of signature wins.

MOUNTAIN WEST

BYU (22-6, 10-4)

Signature wins: Utah
Other notable wins: Swept San Diego State, at Utah State, New Mexico
Key losses: Swept by UNLV
Remaining games: at Wyoming, Air Force
Breakdown: Beating Utah was huge, but the Cougars still need to win their final two games of the season and avoid any slip-ups in the Mountain West Tournament to feel safe heading into Selection Sunday. Also good for BYU is that its win over New Mexico now has a bit more substance to it due to the fact that the Lobos are streaking.

PAC-10

No bubble teams.

SEC

Kentucky (19-10, 8-6)

Signature wins: Swept Tennessee, West Virginia, Florida
Other notable wins: Kansas State
Key losses: VMI
Remaining games: Georgia, at Florida
Breakdown: Kentucky missed a golden opportunity to increase its at-large chances by blowing a double-digit, second-half lead over LSU on Sunday, and now it faces two must-win games against Georgia and Florida to close out the season. If the Wildcats can win both of those games, that would give them sweeps of SEC rivals Tennessee and Florida which should be enough to carry them into the NCAA Tournament.

Tennessee (18-10, 9-5)

Signature wins: Marquette, swept Florida
Other notable wins: Georgetown, at Siena
Key losses: Swept by Kentucky
Remaining games: at South Carolina, Alabama
Breakdown: Getting a sweep of Florida was huge, but those two blowout losses to Kentucky almost nullify that accolade. The Volunteers must win at South Carolina in a bracket-buster game on the 5th and then take care of Alabama to finish out the season. Even then, Tennessee's lack of signature wins might force it to go deep into the SEC Tournament to receive an invite to the NCAAs.

South Carolina (20-7, 9-5)

Signature wins: Swept Kentucky, Florida
Other notable wins: at Baylor
Key losses: College of Charleston
Remaining games: Tennessee, at Georgia
Breakdown: Last week, I said that the Gamecocks could not afford to lose to Vanderbilt. Well, they did, and now they're in deep trouble because of it. South Carolina's résumé was pretty dull to begin with, and being 9-5 in the SEC doesn't look near as good as it would in other years. The Gamecocks now have to beat Tennessee and then defeat Georgia to have a shot at reaching the NCAAs, similar to what the Volunteers have to do. Also like the Vols, South Carolina might also have to make some noise in the conference tournament.

OTHER TEAMS FROM OTHER CONFERENCES

Butler (25-4, 15-3)

Signature wins: at Xavier, at Davidson
Other notable wins: Northwestern, UAB
Key losses: Loyola (Illinois)
Remaining games: None
Breakdown: Butler won the Horizon League regular-season title, and more than likely, the Bulldogs will be playing in the NCAA Tournament whether or not they win their conference tourney. However, Butler cannot afford to lose in its first round game. Even in that scenario, the Bulldogs will still probably be safe, but you can never be too cautious.

Dayton (24-5, 10-4)

Signature wins: at Marquette, Xavier
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: at Massachusetts
Remaining games: at Xavier, Duquesne
Breakdown: The Flyers saved their at-large chances by beating Temple and avoiding a three-game losing streak on Saturday, but there is still more work to do. Dayton may very well have to complete the season sweep of Xavier and then beat Duquesne to earn an invite to the Big Dance. A second win over Xavier would probably do it, but if not, the Flyers are going to have to at least get to the Atlantic-10 Championship Game to get in.

Davidson (24-6, 17-2)

Signature wins: West Virginia
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: 18-point loss to Citadel
Remaining games: at Elon
Breakdown: Unlike Butler and Dayton, Davidson doesn't have the luxury of having a couple of solid signature wins to help its NCAA Tournament chances. Instead, the Wildcats have one nice win over unranked West Virginia, and that's it. Davidson most likely has to win the Southern League Tournament to get into the Dance, but if Stephen Curry is up to the challenge, that shouldn't be a problem.

Saint Mary's (24-5, 10-4)

Signature wins: None
Other notable wins: Providence, at San Diego State, Utah State
Key losses: Swept by Gonzaga, 18-point losses at Santa Clara and home against Portland
Remaining games: None
Breakdown: How much the Selection Committee will take Patrick Mills' injury into account is the big question here, but still, one player can only take a college team so far, and the Gaels just don't have the résumé deserving of an NCAA Tournament berth. They will probably have to win the WAC Tourney to get in.