The Bubble

ACC

Boston College (20-10, 8-7)

Signature wins: at North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, at Maryland
Other notable wins: Virginia Tech, UAB, Providence
Key losses: at Saint Louis, Harvard, swept by Miami
Remaining games: Georgia Tech
Breakdown: Boston College certainly did not do itself any favors by losing to North Carolina State on Wednesday, but it should still have enough quality wins to be worthy of the NCAA Tournament. However, if the Eagles fall to Georgia Tech in their season finale, things could get messy, as BC would then finish at a mediocre 8-8 in conference play with numerous bad losses on top of that.

Virginia Tech (17-12, 7-8)

Signature wins: at Wake Forest, at Clemson, Boston College, at Miami
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: at Georgia, at Virginia, swept by Duke
Remaining games: at Florida State
Breakdown: The only thing keeping the Hokies alive right now is their very impressive road wins. If Virginia Tech manages to take out Florida State in its last game, then it may very well find itself in the Big Dance. Still, the Hokies have lost five of their last six, including a 14-point loss to Virginia. Plus, they lost to Georgia earlier in the year. Those two defeats could be what ends up dooming VT on Selection Sunday. Either way, a win over the Seminoles and then making some noise in the ACC Tournament should get them into the NCAAs.

Maryland (18-11, 7-8)

Signature wins: North Carolina, Michigan State, Miami
Other notable wins: Michigan, Virginia Tech
Key losses: Morgan State, swept by Duke (lost by 41 at Duke), 29-point loss to Clemson, 27-point loss to Georgetown
Remaining games: at Virginia
Breakdown: What is really going to hurt Maryland come Selection Sunday is its dubious assortment of bad losses. The Terrapins may have gotten blown out one too many times to make the NCAA Tournament, its wins over North Carolina and Michigan State notwithstanding. Also notable is the fact that none of the Terps' big wins came on the road. Maryland must beat Virginia and then probably has to win some games in the ACC Tourney to receive an invitation to the Big Dance.

Miami (17-11, 6-9)

Signature wins: Wake Forest, swept Boston College, at Kentucky, Florida State
Other notable wins: Maryland
Key losses: at Georgia Tech
Remaining games: North Carolina State
Breakdown: The Hurricanes' loss to Georgia Tech may have been the final nail in the coffin to their at-large hopes. Miami can now do no better than 7-9 in conference play, and a good portion of its signature wins is losing steam. The 'Canes will more than likely have to make a deep run in the ACC Tournament (they might even have to make the final) to earn a bid. Of course, they have to beat N.C. State, first.


BIG 12

Texas A&M (22-8, 8-7)

Signature wins: Arizona, LSU, Texas
Other notable wins: Oklahoma State
Key losses: at Tulsa
Remaining games: Missouri
Breakdown: The Aggies' at-large hopes probably rest on Saturday's game against Missouri. If they can pull out a win over the Tigers, they will probably find themselves in the Dance barring a first round exit in the Big 12 Tournament. A win over Missouri would not only give Texas A&M a much-needed signature victory, but it would also put it over .500 in conference play. 23 wins looks pretty good, too. But, if A&M falls in its season finale, it will have some work to do in the conference tourney to garner a bid from the selection committee.

Oklahoma State (20-9, 9-6)

Signature wins: Texas
Other notable wins: Texas A&M, Kansas State
Key losses: 25-point loss at Texas
Remaining games: at Oklahoma
Breakdown: The Cowboys' ultimate downfall may be their lack of quality wins. The only victory that really stands out on their résumé is the one over Texas, and the Longhorns aren't even ranked. Oklahoma State absolutely has to take down Oklahoma on Saturday afternoon, or else its at-large hopes will hinge on a deep run in the conference tournament.

BIG EAST

West Virginia (21-9, 10-8)

Signature wins: 21-point win over Villanova, at Ohio State, 27-point win over Providence, at Georgetown
Other notable wins: Notre Dame
Key losses: None
Remaining games: Louisville
Breakdown: Even though their overall résumé isn't particularly eye-catching, the Mountaineers will more than likely be in the tournament because of their great computer numbers. The 20+ point wins over Villanova and Providence don't hurt, either. West Virginia would obviously lock up a bid if it is able to take out Louisville on Saturday night, but it probably doesn't even need to unless it plans on losing in the first round of the Big East Tournament.

Providence (18-12, 10-8)

Signature wins: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, swept Cincinnati
Other notable wins: Rhode Island
Key losses: Northeastern, 33-point loss at Connecticut, 27-point loss at West Virginia
Remaining games: None
Breakdown: Unfortunately for the Friars, their regular season résumé will most likely not be gaudy enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament. Had they won at Villanova in their season finale, we would be talking about what seed Providence was likely to earn in the Dance, but the Wildcats beat the Friars by 17. Providence needs to go on a nice run in the Big East Tournament to win over the selection committee.

Georgetown (15-13, 6-11)

Signature wins: at Connecticut, Memphis, Syracuse, at Villanova
Other notable wins: 27-point win over Maryland, Providence
Key losses: Swept by Cincinnati, Seton Hall, St. John's
Remaining schedule: DePaul
Breakdown: Obviously, Georgetown is going to have to make some noise in the conference tournament if it wants any chance of making the NCAAs. Its chances were starting to look better after taking out Villanova on the road to add to its list of signature wins, but then the Hoyas went and lost to St. John's, all but ending their at-large hopes. Georgetown probably has to get to the final in the Big East Tourney to earn a bid.

BIG TEN

Michigan (18-12, 8-9)

Signature wins: Duke, UCLA, Purdue, Illinois, Penn State, Minnesota, swept Northwestern
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: Swept by Ohio State and Wisconsin, at Iowa
Remaining games: at Minnesota
Breakdown: Michigan's résumé is starting to look better and better now that Penn State has locked up an NCAA Tournament bid and Northwestern is also making a case to make the field of 65. If the Wolverines win at Minnesota on Saturday, they are a lock. If they lose, they will still probably be in, but looking good in the Big Ten Tournament won't hurt.

Wisconsin (18-11, 9-8)

Signature wins: Illinois, Ohio State, swept Penn State and Michigan
Other notable wins: at Virginia Tech, 29-point win over Northwestern
Key losses: at Iowa, swept by Purdue
Remaining games: Indiana
Breakdown: Wisconsin looks to be in good shape, but it absolutely cannot afford to lose to Indiana in its season finale. The sweeps over Penn State and Michigan is what really makes the Badgers' case all the more legitimate. Still, if Wisconsin falters against the Hoosiers or in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, things might get testy.

Northwestern (17-11, 8-9)

Signature wins: at Michigan State, at Purdue, Ohio State, Florida State, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: at Iowa, 29-point loss at Wisconsin, 27-point loss at Minnesota
Remaining games: at Ohio State
Breakdown: Northwestern has gotten hot and is re-stating its case to make the NCAA Tournament. It certainly has a solid array of quality wins, particulary on the road where the Wildcats have beaten both Michigan State and Purdue. If they win at Ohio State on Sunday to add yet another impressive road win to their résumé plus a sweep of the Buckeyes to put the cherry on top, Northwestern will more than likely find itself on the committee's good side come Selection Sunday.

MOUNTAIN WEST

BYU (23-6, 11-4)

Signature wins: Utah
Other notable wins: Swept San Diego State, at Utah State, New Mexico
Key losses: Swept by UNLV
Remaining games: Air Force
Breakdown: BYU has taken care of business against all of its inferior opponents this season, and that is very important to the selection committee. However, it has to avoid a slip-up against Air Force, as the Cougars might not have enough signature victories to make up for such a loss. Still, even if they do fall to the Falcons, they will get an opportunity to redeem themselves in the conference tournament.

PAC-10

Arizona (18-12, 8-9)

Signature wins: Kansas, UCLA, Washington, Gonzaga
Other notable wins: San Diego State, USC
Key losses: Swept by California and Arizona State
Remaining games: Stanford
Breakdown: Over the course of three weeks, Arizona went from being in great shape to being right on the fence. After a stretch where the Wildcats won seven in a row, including wins over Washington and UCLA, Arizona has now dropped four straight, one of which was a 16-point loss at Washington State. You still have to believe that if the 'Cats beat Stanford on Saturday to finish 9-9 in the Pac-10 that their nice array of quality wins will carry them to the Dance, but a solid performance in the conference tournament might also be needed. 'Zona is certainly digging its own grave; that's for sure.

SEC

South Carolina (20-8, 9-6)

Signature wins: Swept Kentucky
Other notable wins: Florida, at Baylor
Key losses: College of Charleston, swept by Tennessee
Remaining games: at Georgia
Breakdown: South Carolina is in deep, deep trouble, losing three of its last five, two of those losses coming against non-tournament teams in Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. The other? To conference bubble rival Tennessee, who probably locked up an at-large berth by completing the season sweep of the Gamecocks. South Carolina has to beat Georgia and then go deep into the SEC Tournament to receive an invitation to the NCAAs. Heck, it might even have to win the whole conference tourney.

Kentucky (19-11, 8-7)

Signature wins: Swept Tennessee, West Virginia
Other notable wins: Florida, Kansas State
Key losses: Georgia, VMI
Remaining games: at Florida
Breakdown: Wow. Just wow. Those are the only thoughts one can possibly have after Kentucky lost at home to Georgia on senior day when it was fighting for an NCAA Tournament berth. Oh, and did I mention they lost at home to Georgia? The Wildcats have to win at Florida to close out the season if they want any shot at an at-large bid. Doing so might get them in, as it would give them sweeps over both the Gators and Tennessee. Still, I really think Kentucky needs to go on a nice run in the conference tournament. That loss to the Bulldogs is really going to haunt them.

OTHER TEAMS FROM OTHER CONFERENCES

Dayton (24-6, 10-5)

Signature wins: at Marquette, Xavier
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: at Massachusetts
Remaining games: Duquesne
Breakdown: After failing to complete the season sweep of Xavier, Dayton definitely needs to, at the very least, get to the Atlantic-10 title game to earn an at-large bid. Outside of the win in its first meeting with the Musketeers and a victory at Marquette, the Flyers don't have anything else to hang their hats on. One might even venture to say that Dayton has to win its conference tournament in order to go dancing.

Saint Mary's (24-5, 10-4)

Signature wins: None
Other notable wins: Providence, at San Diego State, Utah State
Key losses: Swept by Gonzaga, 18-point losses at Santa Clara and home against Portland
Remaining games: None
Breakdown: Patrick Mills will be back for the WCC Tournament, so that will obviously be a huge lift for the Gaels. Saint Mary's might be the most difficult team for the selection committee to judge. How much will they take Mills' injury into account when evaluating the Gaels? It remains to be seen, but it would really behoove Saint Mary's to win its conference tournament, as it just does not have the signature wins that most of the other bubble teams can lay claim to.