The only thing that the Boston Celtics should feel badly about coming out of Cleveland after the first two games of their first-round series with the Cavaliers is that they should be up 2-0. Okay; so maybe that's not exactly a small issue, but the fact that Boston really should hold a fairly commanding 2-0 series lead instead of being even at 1-1 is very impressive for a team that was considered (by most) to be a significant underdog entering this series.
The Celtics have thoroughly out-played the Cavaliers thus far. They have led for six of total eight quarters, Rajon Rondo is absolutely torching Maurice Williams, Antawn Jamison cannot cover Kevin Garnett, Rasheed Wallace seems to have suddenly turned back the clock, Shaquille O'Neal is a non-factor, and they may have discovered a solution for containing LeBron James. And, after the 104-86 drubbing Boston delivered on Monday night, it has given Cleveland a lot to think about, and one really has to wonder where the Cavs' confidence is at the current time.
Clearly, Cleveland's main issue is Rondo; it simply cannot stop him. After going off for 27 points and 13 assists in game one, he followed up with 13 and 19 in game two, with 12 of those 19 assists coming in the first half alone. Oh, and to put into perspective exactly how dominant Rondo was through the first three quarters, he did not have a single dime during the final period. Meanwhile, his counterpart, Williams, finished 1-of-9 from the floor with four points in game two after propelling the Cavaliers to a game one victory with 20 points and a huge third quarter. Cleveland coach Mike Brown ripped into Williams after the game, essentially saying that the Cavaliers have no shot in the series if his point guard continues to play like that.
It has also become blatantly obvious that the 6'9" Jamison cannot cover the 6'13" Garnett (as Garnett refuses to call himself 7'1"). K.G. has easily been shooting over the top of Jamison throughout the first two contests, going for 18 points and 10 rebounds in both games while playing stellar defense. Garnett was feeling so confident that he actually took 21 shots in game two, and this is a guy who has been consistently criticized for not shooting enough in the past. Then you have Anthony Parker, considered to be a solid defender, who had his problems with Ray Allen in game two, as Allen ran Parker ragged by draining three three-pointers and going for 22 points, constantly moving without the ball and running Parker off of countless screens.
All of that aside, what may be most alarming about Cleveland getting taken behind the woodshed Monday night was the fact that the Cavs attempted 38 free throws as opposed to Boston's 18 (Cleveland also took more free throws in game one, attempting 10 more). Cleveland only hit 26 of those 38, good for 68.4%. The Celtics made the most of their opportunities, shooting an efficient 15-of-18 (83.3%). Oh, and another nugget: Boston, the worst rebounding team in the league this season, outrebounded the Cavaliers 43-32.
Now, if you still don't think the Celtics were conserving energy for the playoffs, then I suggest you never watch another NBA game, because you obviously do not know basketball. They have very much gotten into Cleveland's heads, and now with the series heading to TD Garden for two games, James and company could be in serious trouble.
Now that we mentioned James, let's talk about his game two performance, because it was nothing short of abysmal. Yes, he finished with a game-high 24 points and grabbed seven boards, but he had more turnovers (five) than assists (four), missed five free throws, shot 0-of-4 from three, and simply looked, for lack of a better word, lazy out on the floor. His passes were lethargic, his drives to the hoop looked tentative, and his aggressiveness was nowhere to be seen. So, either his elbow his bothering him more than he is letting on, or Boston's outstanding team defense has befuddled him. There might be a combination of the two involved, but I am more inclined to believe the latter of the two possibilities.
The Celtics are jamming up the paint whenever James makes a move to the hoop, forcing him to dish the ball out to his shooters, "shooters" that shot 4-of-21 from three-point range in game two. It's not like the Cavs have any inside scoring to offset that horrible perimeter shooting, either, as O'Neal is not even a shell of his former self (he went 4-for-10 with nine points), Jamison is being taken out of the game by Garnett, and Anderson Varejao can only score when he is wide open two feet away from the basket.
To make things even worse for Cleveland, Boston may have found a new (or, actually, old) weapon in Wallace, who tallied 17 points off 7-of-8 shooting, including 3-of-4 from beyond the arc, in 18 minutes in game two. 'Sheed resembled the player that put the Detroit Pistons over the top in 2004 and helped them make it back to the Finals in 2005. If he can keep producing like that for the remainder of the series, the Cavaliers can say good night, because they are already having enough trouble stopping the likes of Rondo, Garnett, and Allen. Oh, and Paul Pierce hasn't even really gotten going yet.
The Celtics and Cavaliers are two teams going in different directions, as Boston is playing its best basketball of the season, while Cleveland struggled with the eighth-seeded Chicago Bulls and has looked like the inferior team to Boston thus far in this series.
Once again, Boston in six.
Tuesday, May 04, 2010
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Why the Celtics will beat the Cavaliers
For the second time in three years, the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers will meet in the second round of the NBA Playoffs. The first time around, in 2008, Boston eliminated Cleveland in an epic seven-game series, a series in which the deciding game saw LeBron James and Paul Pierce go off for 45 and 41 points, respectively. Most die-hard NBA fans can still almost flawlessly replay the second half of that May afternoon contest at TD Garden in their minds. The Celtics would then, of course, go on to win the championship.
Flash forward two years later, and much has changed. For one, Boston does not have homecourt advantage in this series; Cleveland does. The Cavaliers' personnel also looks awfully different, as they have added the likes of Maurice Williams, Antawn Jamison, Shaquille O'Neal, and Anthony Parker to their ranks since that game seven. The Celtics' roster is very similar, but at the same time, it isn't. Their starting lineup is identical to the one it had in that 2008 battle, but Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen have all declined, with Garnett and Pierce both undergoing knee surgeries and Allen fighting a couple of pesky injuries and, of course, father time.
It isn't all sour for Boston, though, as Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins have both improved more than considerably over the past two seasons, with Rondo developing into a top five point guard in the league and Perkins turning into an elite low-post defender. As far as the Celtics' bench goes, both Tony Allen and Glen Davis are much more significant contributors than they were in '08. However, Boston no longer has the likes Eddie House and P.J. Brown coming off the pine to spark the team. They do have Rasheed Wallace, Nate Robinson, and Marquis Daniels, but all three players have been significant disappointments this season, although Wallace could very well be a huge factor in this series (which I will get to later).
Outside of James, Cleveland's starting five is unrecognizable when stacked up against its '08 squad which consisted of James, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Ben Wallace, Wally Szczerbiak, and Delonte West. This year, Ilgauskas and West are still members of the team, but they have been relegated to bench roles. The Cavaliers' starting lineup now features James, O'Neal, Jamison, Parker, and Williams. Cleveland has some very nice depth, with West, Anderson Varejao, J.J. Hickson, Jamario Moon, and Ilgauskas being prominent bench players.
Both teams won their first-round matchups in five games, the Celtics taking out fifth-seeded Miami, the Cavaliers beating eighth-seeded Chicago. I really liked the way Boston handled the Heat. Garnett and company made it overwhelmingly challenging for Miami to work the ball inside, and largely due to that, Jermaine O'Neal had a dreadful series, and Dwyane Wade was forced to take many more perimeter jumpers than he wanted.
The Celtics' "old legs" have seemingly come to life in the postseason, which was something that I had anticipated all year long. I'm not saying that Boston essentially did not care about the regular season, but given that its "Big Three" of Garnett, Pierce, and Allen are all well into their 30s and carry a ton of mileage on their bodies, it is not at all outlandish to say that the Celts were conserving energy for the playoffs. In fact, it is probably factual, especially considering how well and how live each of those future Hall-of-Famers looked against the Heat. Garnett was back to being a disruptive force on defense and on the boards, Pierce had reverted back to Boston's clear-cut go-to guy in crunchtime, and Allen had rediscovered consistency on his three-point stroke, hitting threes at a 53% clip during the first round.
Coming into the playoffs, no one was giving the Celtics a chance to do much of anything because of their age. As a matter of fact, many had Miami either taking Boston to seven games or even beating them. Hardly anyone was even discussing whether or not the Celts would stand a chance against the likes of Cleveland or Orlando in the postseason; most were just wondering how well they would handle their first-round series. Talk about jumping the gun with a team that consists of three future Hall-of-Famers (and yes; I know that is the second time I mentioned that).
What I want to know is what makes the Cavaliers such a sure-thing to beat Boston. Okay; so they have James. Well, the Celtics have Garnett, Pierce, Allen, and Rondo. You might answer back and say that Cleveland also has Shaq, to which I will respond by saying that Boston has a player who is considered by many to be the NBA's best low-post defender in Perkins. If O'Neal couldn't get much going against the Bulls, how is he going to get into any kind of rhythm against the Celtics? As far as Jamison goes, I see him having quite a bit of trouble finding his game with Garnett patrolling the paint. Jamison is a good low-post scorer, but K.G. is one of the best defenders to ever play the game, and his length could and should give him a lot of problems.
Boston will surely employ a similar strategy against Cleveland as they did against Miami, which is to vehemently defend pick-and-rolls involving James and stack the defense against him whenever he attempts to penetrate off of those screens. The Celtics used this tactic against Wade, and although Wade averaged over 30 PPG for the series, it worked, as much of his scoring came from the perimeter rather than him slashing and drawing contact underneath, and obviously, Boston would love to turn LeBron into a jump shooter. However, the C's have to make sure to close out on the Cavaliers' outside shooters, as James can easily dish the ball back out to the likes of Williams, Parker, West, etc. if the lane gets clogged.
The main advantage Boston has over Cleveland in this series is the point guard matchup; Williams cannot handle Rondo; plain and simple. Rondo is far too quick and can easily burn Williams off the dribble every time down the floor. The key is whether or not Rondo is making his shots, as he missed a number of "gimmes" against the Heat. On that same token, though, if he is not able to put the ball in the hoop, he can still force the Cavs' defense to collapse on him, either opening up Garnett for 18-footers or Allen or Pierce behind the three-point line. One must wonder if this will also play a factor in Williams' offense, as he is going to be awfully gassed from chasing Rondo around the floor all series long.
That brings me to Wallace, the man whom Garnett, Pierce, and Allen so aggressively recruited in the off-season so he could be a huge part of a potential championship team. Well, things haven't necessarily worked out as planned, as Wallace has not really contributed anything worthwhile all year long. You then wondered whether or not he was saving it for the playoffs, too, but then you saw the way he performed against Miami, and you realize that you were probably wrong for even thinking that.
However, I still think it is too early to throw in the towel on 'Sheed. Let's remember that this is a guy who has championship experience, a guy who has defended Shaq multiple times in past postseasons and has also seen plenty of James in the playoffs, as well. His veteran savvy could play an enormous part in this series, and I would not be the least bit surprised to see him have a couple of vintage-Wallace games where he dominates in the low post, knocks down some big treys, and is very sharp defensively. Let's face it; 'Sheed signed with Boston for moments like this. If he has anything left in the tank (and I think he still does), we will see it come game one.
Another player to watch for the Celtics is Robinson. Acquired from the Knicks in a midseason trade that sent fan-favorite Eddie House packing, Robinson has not lived up to expectations in green, quickly falling out of favor with Doc Rivers and dropping out of the rotation entirely. However, Rivers would be wise to give Little Nate a shot in this series. Much like Rondo can use his quickness to routinely abuse Williams, Robinson can do the same. When he is on his game, Robinson is a very explosive player capable of scoring in bursts and giving his squad an enormous lift. If he can come in and give Boston some quality minutes off the bench, Cleveland may be in for a world of hurt.
You might think that, for the Cavaliers, this series rests solely on James, but that is very false, as Cleveland's success will ultimately depend on how well it shoots from the perimeter. Obviously, James will be attacking the rim with reckless abandon, which will continually force the Celtic defense to collapse into the paint, leaving shooters like Williams, Parker, and West open. If those guys are able to consistently knock down their outside shots, Boston will be in trouble.
The anticipation for this playoff meeting between these two squads has been building ever since the Celtics' 117-113 Easter Sunday victory over the Cavaliers. Boston led by as much as 22, but Cleveland staged a furious rally in the fourth quarter to take the lead. The Celtics then regrouped, as Allen hit a gigantic three-pointer to but his team up by four with under a minute to go, and James missed two of four free throws down the stretch.
James also had an opportunity to tie the game down by two with under 10 seconds left, but instead hoisted up an ill-advised three on a fast break that missed badly, prompting Tony Allen to say, "I stopped you." This then escalated into James entering Boston's huddle during the ensuing timeout. Garnett then hit two free throws to ice the game, and he could be seen jawing with James, who was attempting to psyche K.G. out at the line earlier. After the game, James said, "We don't like them, and they don't like us.," stating that the NBA needed a rivalry like this again. Ever since that day, this seemingly inevitable series has been gaining more and more steam, and now, we'll finally get to see it.
Prediction: Celtics in six.
Flash forward two years later, and much has changed. For one, Boston does not have homecourt advantage in this series; Cleveland does. The Cavaliers' personnel also looks awfully different, as they have added the likes of Maurice Williams, Antawn Jamison, Shaquille O'Neal, and Anthony Parker to their ranks since that game seven. The Celtics' roster is very similar, but at the same time, it isn't. Their starting lineup is identical to the one it had in that 2008 battle, but Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen have all declined, with Garnett and Pierce both undergoing knee surgeries and Allen fighting a couple of pesky injuries and, of course, father time.
It isn't all sour for Boston, though, as Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins have both improved more than considerably over the past two seasons, with Rondo developing into a top five point guard in the league and Perkins turning into an elite low-post defender. As far as the Celtics' bench goes, both Tony Allen and Glen Davis are much more significant contributors than they were in '08. However, Boston no longer has the likes Eddie House and P.J. Brown coming off the pine to spark the team. They do have Rasheed Wallace, Nate Robinson, and Marquis Daniels, but all three players have been significant disappointments this season, although Wallace could very well be a huge factor in this series (which I will get to later).
Outside of James, Cleveland's starting five is unrecognizable when stacked up against its '08 squad which consisted of James, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Ben Wallace, Wally Szczerbiak, and Delonte West. This year, Ilgauskas and West are still members of the team, but they have been relegated to bench roles. The Cavaliers' starting lineup now features James, O'Neal, Jamison, Parker, and Williams. Cleveland has some very nice depth, with West, Anderson Varejao, J.J. Hickson, Jamario Moon, and Ilgauskas being prominent bench players.
Both teams won their first-round matchups in five games, the Celtics taking out fifth-seeded Miami, the Cavaliers beating eighth-seeded Chicago. I really liked the way Boston handled the Heat. Garnett and company made it overwhelmingly challenging for Miami to work the ball inside, and largely due to that, Jermaine O'Neal had a dreadful series, and Dwyane Wade was forced to take many more perimeter jumpers than he wanted.
The Celtics' "old legs" have seemingly come to life in the postseason, which was something that I had anticipated all year long. I'm not saying that Boston essentially did not care about the regular season, but given that its "Big Three" of Garnett, Pierce, and Allen are all well into their 30s and carry a ton of mileage on their bodies, it is not at all outlandish to say that the Celts were conserving energy for the playoffs. In fact, it is probably factual, especially considering how well and how live each of those future Hall-of-Famers looked against the Heat. Garnett was back to being a disruptive force on defense and on the boards, Pierce had reverted back to Boston's clear-cut go-to guy in crunchtime, and Allen had rediscovered consistency on his three-point stroke, hitting threes at a 53% clip during the first round.
Coming into the playoffs, no one was giving the Celtics a chance to do much of anything because of their age. As a matter of fact, many had Miami either taking Boston to seven games or even beating them. Hardly anyone was even discussing whether or not the Celts would stand a chance against the likes of Cleveland or Orlando in the postseason; most were just wondering how well they would handle their first-round series. Talk about jumping the gun with a team that consists of three future Hall-of-Famers (and yes; I know that is the second time I mentioned that).
What I want to know is what makes the Cavaliers such a sure-thing to beat Boston. Okay; so they have James. Well, the Celtics have Garnett, Pierce, Allen, and Rondo. You might answer back and say that Cleveland also has Shaq, to which I will respond by saying that Boston has a player who is considered by many to be the NBA's best low-post defender in Perkins. If O'Neal couldn't get much going against the Bulls, how is he going to get into any kind of rhythm against the Celtics? As far as Jamison goes, I see him having quite a bit of trouble finding his game with Garnett patrolling the paint. Jamison is a good low-post scorer, but K.G. is one of the best defenders to ever play the game, and his length could and should give him a lot of problems.
Boston will surely employ a similar strategy against Cleveland as they did against Miami, which is to vehemently defend pick-and-rolls involving James and stack the defense against him whenever he attempts to penetrate off of those screens. The Celtics used this tactic against Wade, and although Wade averaged over 30 PPG for the series, it worked, as much of his scoring came from the perimeter rather than him slashing and drawing contact underneath, and obviously, Boston would love to turn LeBron into a jump shooter. However, the C's have to make sure to close out on the Cavaliers' outside shooters, as James can easily dish the ball back out to the likes of Williams, Parker, West, etc. if the lane gets clogged.
The main advantage Boston has over Cleveland in this series is the point guard matchup; Williams cannot handle Rondo; plain and simple. Rondo is far too quick and can easily burn Williams off the dribble every time down the floor. The key is whether or not Rondo is making his shots, as he missed a number of "gimmes" against the Heat. On that same token, though, if he is not able to put the ball in the hoop, he can still force the Cavs' defense to collapse on him, either opening up Garnett for 18-footers or Allen or Pierce behind the three-point line. One must wonder if this will also play a factor in Williams' offense, as he is going to be awfully gassed from chasing Rondo around the floor all series long.
That brings me to Wallace, the man whom Garnett, Pierce, and Allen so aggressively recruited in the off-season so he could be a huge part of a potential championship team. Well, things haven't necessarily worked out as planned, as Wallace has not really contributed anything worthwhile all year long. You then wondered whether or not he was saving it for the playoffs, too, but then you saw the way he performed against Miami, and you realize that you were probably wrong for even thinking that.
However, I still think it is too early to throw in the towel on 'Sheed. Let's remember that this is a guy who has championship experience, a guy who has defended Shaq multiple times in past postseasons and has also seen plenty of James in the playoffs, as well. His veteran savvy could play an enormous part in this series, and I would not be the least bit surprised to see him have a couple of vintage-Wallace games where he dominates in the low post, knocks down some big treys, and is very sharp defensively. Let's face it; 'Sheed signed with Boston for moments like this. If he has anything left in the tank (and I think he still does), we will see it come game one.
Another player to watch for the Celtics is Robinson. Acquired from the Knicks in a midseason trade that sent fan-favorite Eddie House packing, Robinson has not lived up to expectations in green, quickly falling out of favor with Doc Rivers and dropping out of the rotation entirely. However, Rivers would be wise to give Little Nate a shot in this series. Much like Rondo can use his quickness to routinely abuse Williams, Robinson can do the same. When he is on his game, Robinson is a very explosive player capable of scoring in bursts and giving his squad an enormous lift. If he can come in and give Boston some quality minutes off the bench, Cleveland may be in for a world of hurt.
You might think that, for the Cavaliers, this series rests solely on James, but that is very false, as Cleveland's success will ultimately depend on how well it shoots from the perimeter. Obviously, James will be attacking the rim with reckless abandon, which will continually force the Celtic defense to collapse into the paint, leaving shooters like Williams, Parker, and West open. If those guys are able to consistently knock down their outside shots, Boston will be in trouble.
The anticipation for this playoff meeting between these two squads has been building ever since the Celtics' 117-113 Easter Sunday victory over the Cavaliers. Boston led by as much as 22, but Cleveland staged a furious rally in the fourth quarter to take the lead. The Celtics then regrouped, as Allen hit a gigantic three-pointer to but his team up by four with under a minute to go, and James missed two of four free throws down the stretch.
James also had an opportunity to tie the game down by two with under 10 seconds left, but instead hoisted up an ill-advised three on a fast break that missed badly, prompting Tony Allen to say, "I stopped you." This then escalated into James entering Boston's huddle during the ensuing timeout. Garnett then hit two free throws to ice the game, and he could be seen jawing with James, who was attempting to psyche K.G. out at the line earlier. After the game, James said, "We don't like them, and they don't like us.," stating that the NBA needed a rivalry like this again. Ever since that day, this seemingly inevitable series has been gaining more and more steam, and now, we'll finally get to see it.
Prediction: Celtics in six.
Sunday, April 25, 2010
Like it or not, Lakers are in trouble
Last season, the short-handed Houston Rockets took the eventual defending champion Los Angeles Lakers to seven games in the conference semi-finals, smacking the Lakers around in two of their three wins. Looking at the two rosters, one would figure that Houston had absolutely no business winning more than a game against Los Angeles, never mind three.
The Rockets were without Tracy McGrady for the entire series and without Yao Ming in games four through seven, leaving them with a starting lineup consisting of Chuck Hayes, Luis Scola, Ron Artest (who is now a Laker, ironically enough), Shane Battier, and Aaron Brooks to deal with the likes of Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum, and the rest of the juggernaut Lakers. Yet, Houston still managed to give Los Angeles a fight for its life, prompting questions of whether or not the Lakers truly had the heart and desire to win an NBA championship.
Well, several weeks later, Los Angeles obliterated any notion that it was not ready to win it all, beating the Orlando Magic in five games to win the NBA Finals. However, that was last season; this is this season, and the Lakers find themselves in a fairly similar position; locked in a dogfight with a team that many (myself not included) predicted L.A. would conquer with relative ease: the Oklahoma City Thunder. This time around, though, it's the first round of the playoffs.
The Lakers won the first two games of this series at home, although not in overly impressive fashion. It seems pretty clear that Bryant's injured finger is still a signficiant issue, as the former MVP shot a combined 18-of-47 from the floor in those two contests, good for 38%. This led to some criticism from coach Phil Jackson, as he told Bryant to either "shoot better or shoot less." Well, Kobe didn't exactly oblige in game three, going 10-of-29 in a 101-96 loss at Oklahoma City.
Then came game four. The crowd at Ford Center was just as loud as it was in game three, and the Thunder were as determined as ever to send the series back to California tied 2-2, which they did, annihilating Los Angeles 110-89 in a game that wasn't even that close. From the get-go, Oklahoma City dominated L.A., jumping out to a 29-17 lead after a quarter which saw Kevin Durant throw down two vicious tomahawk jams, one coming off of a nasty crossover that left Artest confuzzled.
Astonishingly, Bryant did not attempt one shot the entire first quarter. Not one. As I witnessed this, I immediately flashed back to the 2006 postseason, when Bryant, to spite Jackson, was essentially uninvolved in the Laker offense in a blowout game seven loss to the Phoenix Suns. Since then, Kobe has matured, finally winning a title without the aid of Shaquille O'Neal and developing into a consummate team leader (or so we thought). Could this first 12 minutes really have been the beginning of Bryant pulling another '06 on Jackson and Los Angeles?
Well, in the case of the Thunder, the onslaught continued in the second period, as their offensive efficiency did not cease and they began to not only get production from Durant and Russell Westbrook, but from bench players James Harden (who converted a four-point play) and Serge Ibaka. Bryant's first shot attempt of the game came at the 9:06 mark of the quarter, a successful three-pointer that would end up being one of his only three field goals in the first half (Bryant had eight points).
Going into halftime, Oklahoma City led 55-42, and the Lakers could not find any kind of rhythm offensively, nor could they stop the Thunder at the other end. The only two Los Angeles players who put forth any kind of notable production in the first half were Gasol and Bynum, and that wasn't nearly enough, as Bryant, Odom, and Artest were all but invisible for the first 24 minutes of the game.
Things only worsened for the Lakers in the third quarter, as Oklahoma City used a 31-point period to extend its lead to 22 heading into the fourth. Bryant would take four shots during this stretch, knocking down two of them. Those would be the final field goal attempts Kobe would take for the game, as, with things basically out of reach for Los Angeles entering the fourth, he would leave the bench and head to the locker room to get treatment for his assortment of nagging injuries (finger, knee, ankle). Bryant's final statline? 12 points off of 5-of-10 shooting, going 1-of-2 from the free throw line. That is clearly not a typical Kobe Bryant night.
So, the question must now be thrown about: was Bryant really just trying to get his teammates involved early, as Jackson stated after the game, or was he letting his ego take control, essentially saying: "You don't want me to shoot? Fine; now watch what happens when I don't." It is pretty sad that this even has to be brought up, but based on Bryant's history, it is a fair argument to quibble over.
Don't get me wrong; I am not solely blaming this loss on Kobe; that is hardly the case. Usually, no matter how poorly a team plays, you can point out some positives or say, "you know what, so-and-so had a solid game," but I can't even do that after this nightmarish game four for the Lakers. Yes, Gasol and Bynum had nice first halves, but they went A.W.O.L. when the ship started to sink. Artest was absolutely awful, finishing 2-of-9 from the floor with five points and three rebounds. Derek Fisher was routinely abused by Westbrook all night as he has been all series long, bringing into play the question of whether or not Jackson would be better off starting the quicker Jordan Farmar for the remainder of the series. Los Angeles laid a collective egg as team; there are no two-ways about it.
I still think the Lakers will win this series in six games as I originally predicted, but don't kid yourself; they are in trouble. The Thunder have just looked faster, quicker, stronger, and hungrier these past two games, and it's the latter of those four that is the most concerning. Once again, Los Angeles' will and desire is being catechized. The Lakers let Oklahoma City run all over them for a good portion of game three and all 48 minutes of game four, and whether or not that is because the Thunder are just too athletic and exuberant for Los Angeles or because the Lakers just don't care right now will be answered after game five.
Like it or not, game five is an absolute must-win for L.A. The Lakers cannot go back to Oklahoma City down 3-2 and expect to force a game seven. I am not saying they can't; I'm just saying that they have to take care of business now before they dig themselves a hole that may be too deep to climb out of. History also doesn't lie, as in series' that are tied at two games apiece, the winner of game five goes on to win the series 83% of the time. Also, in the case of Los Angeles, when it takes game five when tied 2-2 in a playoff series, it is 17-0 in those series'.
What kind of adjustments will the Lakers need to make to win this series? Well, first of all, Bryant cannot just take the night off offensively. I'm not saying that he should jack up 30 shots with complete disregard for the fact that he has four teammates on the floor, but that when he has an opportunity to attack the basket and when things look like they may be slipping away for Los Angeles, he has to take charge.
Also, Artest needs to wake up offensively. Yes, the Lakers did bring him in primarily for his defense so he could deal with players such as Durant in the postseason, but he needs to produce some kind of offense. He is currently 12-of-40 from the floor in this series; that's 30%. Oh, and of those 40 shots, 23 of them have been three-pointers, and of those 23, he has only converted three (13%). Artest is listed at 260 lbs. He should not be spending his time behind the three-point line, especially considering he was never a great outside shooter to begin with. To put it plainly, he needs to get going.
Finally, Los Angeles needs to find a way to slow down Westbrook, and if that means benching Fisher in favor of Farmar for the rest of the series, then so be it. Fisher may hit some big shots, but that is not worth watching him get burnt every time down the floor by the much younger and much quicker Westbrook. We've already seen this movie before; last year, Houston's Brooks made Fisher look foolish all series long. Two years ago, Boston's Rajon Rondo demolished Fisher in the Finals. Jackson needs to make an adjustment here immediataely.
Taking all things into consideration, the Lakers' experience and overall talent should (notice that I said should) be enough to get them over the hump in this series. However, they need to start now, meaning the opening tip of game five. If they don't, they may just find themselves in the position of being on the raw end of arguably the biggest playoff upset in NBA history.
The Rockets were without Tracy McGrady for the entire series and without Yao Ming in games four through seven, leaving them with a starting lineup consisting of Chuck Hayes, Luis Scola, Ron Artest (who is now a Laker, ironically enough), Shane Battier, and Aaron Brooks to deal with the likes of Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum, and the rest of the juggernaut Lakers. Yet, Houston still managed to give Los Angeles a fight for its life, prompting questions of whether or not the Lakers truly had the heart and desire to win an NBA championship.
Well, several weeks later, Los Angeles obliterated any notion that it was not ready to win it all, beating the Orlando Magic in five games to win the NBA Finals. However, that was last season; this is this season, and the Lakers find themselves in a fairly similar position; locked in a dogfight with a team that many (myself not included) predicted L.A. would conquer with relative ease: the Oklahoma City Thunder. This time around, though, it's the first round of the playoffs.
The Lakers won the first two games of this series at home, although not in overly impressive fashion. It seems pretty clear that Bryant's injured finger is still a signficiant issue, as the former MVP shot a combined 18-of-47 from the floor in those two contests, good for 38%. This led to some criticism from coach Phil Jackson, as he told Bryant to either "shoot better or shoot less." Well, Kobe didn't exactly oblige in game three, going 10-of-29 in a 101-96 loss at Oklahoma City.
Then came game four. The crowd at Ford Center was just as loud as it was in game three, and the Thunder were as determined as ever to send the series back to California tied 2-2, which they did, annihilating Los Angeles 110-89 in a game that wasn't even that close. From the get-go, Oklahoma City dominated L.A., jumping out to a 29-17 lead after a quarter which saw Kevin Durant throw down two vicious tomahawk jams, one coming off of a nasty crossover that left Artest confuzzled.
Astonishingly, Bryant did not attempt one shot the entire first quarter. Not one. As I witnessed this, I immediately flashed back to the 2006 postseason, when Bryant, to spite Jackson, was essentially uninvolved in the Laker offense in a blowout game seven loss to the Phoenix Suns. Since then, Kobe has matured, finally winning a title without the aid of Shaquille O'Neal and developing into a consummate team leader (or so we thought). Could this first 12 minutes really have been the beginning of Bryant pulling another '06 on Jackson and Los Angeles?
Well, in the case of the Thunder, the onslaught continued in the second period, as their offensive efficiency did not cease and they began to not only get production from Durant and Russell Westbrook, but from bench players James Harden (who converted a four-point play) and Serge Ibaka. Bryant's first shot attempt of the game came at the 9:06 mark of the quarter, a successful three-pointer that would end up being one of his only three field goals in the first half (Bryant had eight points).
Going into halftime, Oklahoma City led 55-42, and the Lakers could not find any kind of rhythm offensively, nor could they stop the Thunder at the other end. The only two Los Angeles players who put forth any kind of notable production in the first half were Gasol and Bynum, and that wasn't nearly enough, as Bryant, Odom, and Artest were all but invisible for the first 24 minutes of the game.
Things only worsened for the Lakers in the third quarter, as Oklahoma City used a 31-point period to extend its lead to 22 heading into the fourth. Bryant would take four shots during this stretch, knocking down two of them. Those would be the final field goal attempts Kobe would take for the game, as, with things basically out of reach for Los Angeles entering the fourth, he would leave the bench and head to the locker room to get treatment for his assortment of nagging injuries (finger, knee, ankle). Bryant's final statline? 12 points off of 5-of-10 shooting, going 1-of-2 from the free throw line. That is clearly not a typical Kobe Bryant night.
So, the question must now be thrown about: was Bryant really just trying to get his teammates involved early, as Jackson stated after the game, or was he letting his ego take control, essentially saying: "You don't want me to shoot? Fine; now watch what happens when I don't." It is pretty sad that this even has to be brought up, but based on Bryant's history, it is a fair argument to quibble over.
Don't get me wrong; I am not solely blaming this loss on Kobe; that is hardly the case. Usually, no matter how poorly a team plays, you can point out some positives or say, "you know what, so-and-so had a solid game," but I can't even do that after this nightmarish game four for the Lakers. Yes, Gasol and Bynum had nice first halves, but they went A.W.O.L. when the ship started to sink. Artest was absolutely awful, finishing 2-of-9 from the floor with five points and three rebounds. Derek Fisher was routinely abused by Westbrook all night as he has been all series long, bringing into play the question of whether or not Jackson would be better off starting the quicker Jordan Farmar for the remainder of the series. Los Angeles laid a collective egg as team; there are no two-ways about it.
I still think the Lakers will win this series in six games as I originally predicted, but don't kid yourself; they are in trouble. The Thunder have just looked faster, quicker, stronger, and hungrier these past two games, and it's the latter of those four that is the most concerning. Once again, Los Angeles' will and desire is being catechized. The Lakers let Oklahoma City run all over them for a good portion of game three and all 48 minutes of game four, and whether or not that is because the Thunder are just too athletic and exuberant for Los Angeles or because the Lakers just don't care right now will be answered after game five.
Like it or not, game five is an absolute must-win for L.A. The Lakers cannot go back to Oklahoma City down 3-2 and expect to force a game seven. I am not saying they can't; I'm just saying that they have to take care of business now before they dig themselves a hole that may be too deep to climb out of. History also doesn't lie, as in series' that are tied at two games apiece, the winner of game five goes on to win the series 83% of the time. Also, in the case of Los Angeles, when it takes game five when tied 2-2 in a playoff series, it is 17-0 in those series'.
What kind of adjustments will the Lakers need to make to win this series? Well, first of all, Bryant cannot just take the night off offensively. I'm not saying that he should jack up 30 shots with complete disregard for the fact that he has four teammates on the floor, but that when he has an opportunity to attack the basket and when things look like they may be slipping away for Los Angeles, he has to take charge.
Also, Artest needs to wake up offensively. Yes, the Lakers did bring him in primarily for his defense so he could deal with players such as Durant in the postseason, but he needs to produce some kind of offense. He is currently 12-of-40 from the floor in this series; that's 30%. Oh, and of those 40 shots, 23 of them have been three-pointers, and of those 23, he has only converted three (13%). Artest is listed at 260 lbs. He should not be spending his time behind the three-point line, especially considering he was never a great outside shooter to begin with. To put it plainly, he needs to get going.
Finally, Los Angeles needs to find a way to slow down Westbrook, and if that means benching Fisher in favor of Farmar for the rest of the series, then so be it. Fisher may hit some big shots, but that is not worth watching him get burnt every time down the floor by the much younger and much quicker Westbrook. We've already seen this movie before; last year, Houston's Brooks made Fisher look foolish all series long. Two years ago, Boston's Rajon Rondo demolished Fisher in the Finals. Jackson needs to make an adjustment here immediataely.
Taking all things into consideration, the Lakers' experience and overall talent should (notice that I said should) be enough to get them over the hump in this series. However, they need to start now, meaning the opening tip of game five. If they don't, they may just find themselves in the position of being on the raw end of arguably the biggest playoff upset in NBA history.
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Holliday talking to multiple teams; Olivo to COL?
- According to Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated, Matt Holliday rejected a proposal from the Cardinals that was believed to be six years and over $100 million sometime during the past couple of weeks. Heyman also states that Holliday is in conversations with "multiple teams." Who could these mystery teams be? Being that the Mets just signed Jason Bay, you can count them out. The Yankees have been adamant in saying that they are not pursuing the 29-year old outfielder, although the Yanks have been known to throw up smokescreens. The Giants are another possibility, although whether or not they want to offer up a big contract is in question. Maybe the Red Sox or the Angels have jumped in? Despite everything, St. Louis is optimistic that it will re-sign Holliday. We'll soon find out.
- Miguel Olivo is very close to signing with the Rockies, which squelches any chance of Yorvit Torrealba returning to Colorado in 2010. The deal for Olivo would be for one year with a club option.
- Seattle is still in the market for a power hitter, presumably a first baseman. Adam LaRoche is a possibility, as is Mike Jacobs, who was recently non-tendered by Kansas City.
- The Diamondbacks have signed Braves' castoff Kelly Johnson to a one-year, $2.35 million deal. Johnson, who was non-tendered by Atlanta, is a natural second baseman, but can also play left field. Injuries derailed the 28-year old in 2009, as he lost his starting job to Martin Prado and posted a paltry .224/.303/.692 line as he dealt with wrist tendinits. Johnson has been a productive hitter in the past, however, particularly in 2007 when he put up a .276/.375/.832 line.
- Reds' assistant GM Bob Miller says that Jonny Gomes, whom Cincinnati non-tendered, will explore the free agent market. Gomes had a solid season at the plate in '09, compiling a line of .267/.338/.879, but his defense leaves much to be desired, as the 29-year old outfielder posted a -10.2 UZR.
- Oakland has re-signed Justin Duchscherer to a one-year deal worth a base salary of $2 million (there is also $3.5 million in incentives for games started and innings pitched). The 32-year old right-hander missed the entire 2009 season due to elbow surgery and depression, but he was fantastic in 2008, posting a 2.54 ERA and .210 BAA over 141.2 innings.
- One day after the Giants hauled in Mark DeRosa, they re-signed Juan Uribe. The versatile Uribe, 30, will likely serve as a super-utility man for San Francisco. In '09, he played second base, shortstop, and third base.
- The Dodgers are going after Joel Pineiro, as are the Angels and Mets. Los Angeles could certainly use another starting pitcher, as their rotation after Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley is full of question marks.
- The Marlins and Athletics are both in the thick of the Aroldis Chapman sweepstakes. Florida made Chapman an offer a couple of weeks ago. The Red Sox also tendered the 20-year old Cuban phenom an offer.
- Boston remains very interested in Adrian Beltre. Oakland is another potential suitor for the slick-fielding third baseman.
Monday, December 21, 2009
Yankees ask about Zambrano; Mets frustrated
- In the latest bit of news about the Yankees' search for a starting pitcher, Mike Puma of the New York Post states that New York asked the Cubs about Carlos Zambrano, but balked at the asking price. The hot-tempered Zambrano is due to make $17.875 million in 2010, and $53.75 million total over the final three years of his contract. The 28-year old right-hander also has a $19.25 million vesting player option in 2013. One would assume that Chicago asked the Yankees for one of Philip Hughes or Joba Chamberlain plus top catching prospect Jesus Montero, as Geovany Soto, the 2008 NL Rookie of the Year, struggled mightily in 2009.
- Should nothing develop on the Zambrano front, the Yankees have numerous other options to turn to, although none of them are too appealing. As stated yesterday, Joel Pineiro and Jason Marquis are potential targets in free agency, but Pineiro is looking for a four-year deal and Marquis probably would not be much of an upgrade over Chad Gaudin. The Braves are rumored to be shopping Derek Lowe, but being that he has $45 million due over the final three years of his contract, it seems unlikely that New York would pursue him. Another possibility is Aaron Harang, who is due $25.25 million over the next two years but comes with a $2 million buyout option in 2011.
- The Mets are getting tired of waiting for Jason Bay and Bengie Molina to make their decisions, according to Bart Hubbuch of the New York Post. New York recently offered Bay a four-year deal worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $65 million, but Bay is said to be looking for five years. The Mets offered Molina two years and $10 million, which is a far cry from the three-year, $20 million contract he is searching for. Should neither player come down on their demands relatively soon, New York will have to look elsewhere. As far as catchers go, the Mets have also been linked to Yorvit Torrealba.
- Texas has signed reliever Darren Oliver to a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $3.5 million. The contract comes with a 2011 vesting option, however, that could push the total amount to $6.5 million.
- The Marlins made a small signing today, inking infielder Danny Richar to a minor-league contract. Florida may view the left-handed hitting Richar as a potential replacement for pinch-hitting extraordinaire Ross Gload, who recently departed for Philadelphia via free agency.
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Marlins make offer to Chapman; Bay limited
- In what might be one of the bigger surprises of the off-season thus far, the Marlins have made 21-year old Cuban phenom Aroldis Chapman a five-year, $13 million offer. However, the Red Sox have already offered the young hurler a multi-year deal worth $15.5 million, so unless Chapman strongly desires to play in a Cuban market like Miami, the Marlins' chances of actually landing him appear slim at this point.
- Jason Bay only has one option right now, and much to his chagrin, it is the Mets. Clearly, Bay would prefer not to sign with New York, as he and his agent Joe Urbon turned around and asked Boston to revisit negotiations. Unfortunately for Bay, due to the fact that the Red Sox have already inked Mike Cameron, their interest level in the left-fielder is minimal. Bill Madden of the New York Daily News suggests that Bay sees the Mets as "no better than a third-place club," even with him in the lineup. Unless a team like Seattle, or perhaps even the Yankees, throws its hat into the bidding at the last second, Bay appears destined to ink a contract with the Mets.
- Now that the Mike Lowell-to-Texas trade is off, the Rangers will have to look elsewhere for a bat. Texas is reportedly interested in the likes of Vladimir Guerrero and Jermaine Dye, and Jim Thome remains another possibility. Based on that, it seems like the Rangers are scouring the market for a DH.
- Coco Crisp is close to signing a one-year, $5 million deal with Oakland. The 30-year old outfielder posted a .228/.336/.714 line over 180 at-bats with Kansas City in '09.
- Much like Bay, Johnny Damon's options are very, very limited. As a matter of fact, he may not even have the luxury of having a single potential suitor at this point. Ken Davidoff of Newsday names the Braves, Rays, Cubs, and Mets as possibilities, but notes that each of those squads remain long shots. Taking everything into consideration, Damon's most realistic suitor may still be the Yankees if he is willing to come down significantly on his price-tag. Before the Yanks reached an agreement with Nick Johnson, Damon lowered his demands to two years, $20 million. That still wasn't low enough for the Bronx Bombers, who are thinking more along the lines of a two-year, $14 million contract. At this point, that might be Damon's best, and only, bet.
- The Yankees also have interest in Mark DeRosa, but, like Damon, his asking price is far too high for their liking. I actually think there is more of a chance that New York brings Damon back than it signs DeRosa.
- Even though rumors abound about a possible Adrian Gonzalez-to-Boston deal, it doesn't appear likely, according to ESPN's Jayson Stark. The Padres really do not have to deal Gonzalez, considering he is only owed $4.5 million this season and has a $5.5 million club buyout option in 2011. He is, without a doubt, one of the biggest bargains in baseball. That said, you would have to think that San Diego would at least contemplate the idea of trading A-Gon should the Red Sox come up with the right package (Jacoby Ellsbury, Casey Kelly, and Jake Westmoreland would be immediate targets for the Padres).
- The Cubs are looking for an outfielder, and they are rumored to have strong interest in Marlon Byrd, with Scott Podsednik representing another possibility. Chicago could also look to swing a deal with the Yankees for one of Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner now that New York does not have a need for both of them due to the fact that it landed Curtis Granderson. The Cubs have also had talks with free agent reliever Matt Capps, as Chicago is in serious need of bullpen help.
- If you're wondering why the catching market seems a bit slow at the moment, look no further than Bengie Molina and his demand for a three-year, $20 million contract, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com, who spoke to a "person in the industry" with knowledge of the situation. The Mets have been rumored to be Molina's top potential suitor, but they have balked at his high price-tag (wouldn't you?). Not that the list of free agent catchers, which, outside of Molina, includes his brother Jose, Yorvit Torrealba, and Rod Barajas, is all that impressive, but there are still plenty of teams in need of second-string backstops.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
MLB Rumors: 11/14
- The Tigers are shopping Curtis Granderson, with the Cubs, Angels, and Yankees considered possible destinations for the 28-year old outfielder. Granderson had a disappointing '09 season, putting up a .249/.327/.780 line. Even more concerning were his numbers against lefties (.183/.245/.484). Detroit has also made Edwin Jackson available for trade. The Brewers have already expressed interest.
- Both the Orioles and Giants have serious interest in the Marlins' Dan Uggla. However, both teams would want Uggla to play third base, and Uggla's agent made it known this week that Uggla wants to remain at second. The Red Sox have also expressed interest and might make a play for him in the event that they do not re-sign Jason Bay. Boston would want Uggla to play left field.
- It might be another quiet off-season for the Mets in terms of landing big names. They will most likely poke their heads in on John Lackey, but they are concerned about his injury history and therefore are reluctant to hand him a big contract (perhaps this is based on the contract New York gave to Oliver Perez last off-season). Matt Holliday will likely be too expensive for Omar Minaya and company, as well. Instead, the Mets might look to cheaper free agents such as Joel Pineiro, Randy Wolf, and Bengie Molina. They have also not ruled out the possibility of bringing Carlos Delgado back.
- Speaking of Lackey, Boston met with his agent and has serious interest in the 31-year old right-hander. The Yankees and Angels are also legitimate contenders for his services.
- Mike Cameron is drawing some interest from around the league, and many feel that, given his outstanding defensive ability, he will bring better bang for the buck than Bay. The Yankees could be a possible destination with their outfield situation in a bit of a flux.
- Washington has expressed interest in both Mark DeRosa and Mike Gonzalez. Being that the Nationals had the worst bullpen in baseball last season, Gonzalez would certainly be a welcome addition.
- The Brewers are looking for pitching. They are looking at Detroit's Jackson (as stated earlier) and Javier Vazquez and Derek Lowe of Atlanta.
- The Braves might be forced to trade one of Vazquez or Lowe for financial reasons. Milwaukee and the Dodgers have both inquired on Vazquez, and the Yankees could be a possibilty for Lowe should they fail to sign Lackey.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
NBA Mock Draft
1. Los Angeles Clippers - Blake Griffin. No-brainer here. The Clippers have already made it clear that they're going to take Griffin, and he is certainly the best talent in this draft.
2. Memphis Grizzlies - Hasheem Thabeet. Like Los Angeles, Memphis has already made it known who it wants with their selection, and that player is the 7'3" Thabeet.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder - James Harden. The Thunder already have their point guard of the future in Russell Westbrook, so Ricky Rubio is not needed here. Harden would give Oklahoma City a backcourt of Harden, Westbrook, and Kevin Durant. Talk about a bright future.
4. Sacramento Kings - Ricky Rubio. The biggest need Sacramento has is at point guard, so it goes with Rubio here. There have been rumblings all month that the Kings are very interested in the Spanish floor general.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves - Tyreke Evans. Minnesota opened up a big hole in its backcourt by dealing Randy Foye and Mike Miller to Washington for this pick and other players, but it will begin to remedy that by selecting Evans here.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves - Stephen Curry. Whether or not the Timberwolves actually keep both of these picks remains to be seen, but if they do, I certainly see them going for two guards. With Foye now gone, Minnesota is lacking a talented point guard. Because of that, the Wolves go with the very popular son of Dell Curry.
7. Golden State Warriors - Jordan Hill. If Hill is still on the board by the time Golden State picks (and more than likely, he will be), there shouldn't be much of a thought process here. Hill would fit perfectly in the Warriors' system, and he would give them arguably the most talented group of young big men in the game: Hill, Andris Biedrins, Anthony Randolph, and Brandan Wright.
8. New York Knicks - DeMar DeRozan. Rumor has it that the Knicks are trying to trade up, but if they are unsuccessful in doing so, I see them going with one of the many wings that will be available at this pick. Derozan is the best of them, in my opinion.
9. Toronto Raptors - Jrue Holiday. Toronto is in desperate need of a shooting guard, and although Holiday is a bit of a tweener, he is probably the best two-guard remaining on the board at this point. Holiday's draft stock has fluctuated tremendously over the past month.
10. Milwaukee Bucks - Gerald Henderson. Why so many mock drafts have Milwaukee selecting Jonny Flynn with this pick, I'll never know. Ramon Sessions is clearly this team's point guard of the future. What the Bucks really need is another wing player with the recent Richard Jefferson trade. Henderson fits the bill here.
11. New Jersey Nets - James Johnson. Johnson is the perfect pick for the Nets here. He can play either forward position, and New Jersey needs both a power forward and a small forward. The multi-talented Demon Deacon is one of the more overlooked players in this draft.
12. Charlotte Bobcats - Earl Clark. Charlotte could really use another big man up front, and the versatile Clark would be a nice addition. Similar to Johnson in that he is a bit of a tweener, Clark has an extremely long wing-span that should allow him to be a very solid defender in this league.
13. Indiana Pacers - DeJuan Blair. The Pacers could definitely afford to have another big man, as their frontcourt depth is very questionable. Blair will never be a star, but he is a coach's dream. He hustles on every play and could turn into a solid rebounder in the NBA.
14. Phoenix Suns - Brandon Jennings. Obviously, point guard is not the Suns' biggest need, and the trade of Shaquille O'Neal opens up a gaping hole in the frontcourt, but Phoenix is not going to win this year anyway. The chances of them re-signing Steve Nash in the off-season are very slim, so they might as well take their point guard of the future in Jennings.
15. Detroit Pistons - B.J. Mullens. Mullens really is a huge reach at this pick, but Detroit must take a big man with Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess likely both departing via free agency. Mullens is a project, but he definitely has some skill.
16. Chicago Bulls - Austin Daye. This pick leans heavily on what the Bulls think they are going to do with Ben Gordon in the off-season, but assuming they plan on re-signing him, Chicago goes with a versatile low-post scorer in Daye. As far as raw talent goes, Daye is probably one of the best players in the draft. The key word there is "raw." He needs to add a lot of weight to his frame if he expects to be successful in the NBA.
17. Philadelphia 76ers - Terrence Williams. Williams could be the biggest sleeper in this entire draft. He is very NBA-ready and does nearly everything well. Philadelphia needs depth at the wings, so they take the tough guard out of Louisville.
18. Minnesota Timberwolves - Marcus Thornton. Another big-time sleeper. Thornton is actually a pretty similar player to Williams, and Minnesota could use a tough player like him. He reminds me a lot of Dwyane Wade. He obviously doesn't have his skill-set, but the fact that he is a big-bodied wing with a post-up game leads me to see some Wade in him.
19. Atlanta Hawks - Tyler Hansbrough. Assuming Atlanta lands Jamal Crawford like the rumors say, that pretty much eliminates its need for another backcourt scorer. In that case, I see the Hawks going with a big man. Hansbrough's draft stock has been rising, and with Zaza Pachulia likely on his way out, the North Carolina legend would be a solid pick here.
20. Utah Jazz - Chase Budinger. This is a difficult pick to gauge as it is not known whether or not the Jazz plan on re-signing Carlos Boozer (or if Boozer is even going to opt out of his contract), but assuming Boozer stays, the Jazz will probably go for a wing. Budinger is extremely talented and would fit in very well with Utah.
21. New Orleans Hornets - DaJuan Summers. The Hornets really need another big body that can score up front, and Summers will provide that. He is a versatile forward that can score on the low block and hit the three.
22. Portland Trail Blazers - Jonny Flynn. Some may feel that Flynn is far too low on this mock, but the fact is that not many teams are in need of a point guard right now. Portland really isn't either, as it drafted Jerryd Bayless last season, but the Blazers don't really have any other holes to fill. In case Bayless doesn't work out, they can go with Flynn.
23. Sacramento Kings - Taj Gibson. Gibson is another one of those overlooked players in this draft. The Kings could use a big man here, and Gibson is a very nice talent. He just needs to add some weight to his frame.
24. Dallas Mavericks - Sam Young. Dallas has some flexibility with this pick. They could go for a point guard like Jeff Teague to replace Jason Kidd for the future, or go for some much-needed wing depth. Personally, I see them going for a wing. Young will probably be able to play either wing position in the pros.
25. Oklahoma City Thunder - Dante Cunningham. Cunningham is a player who could very well sneak into the first round, and Oklahoma City could use the depth in the frontcourt. They really need a center more than anything, but there will not be any good ones on the board at this point in the draft.
26. Chicago Bulls - Wayne Ellington. In case Gordon departs, Ellington could certainly fit the void. The North Carolina product is a deadly outside shooter whose game will probably translate well into the pros.
27. Memphis Grizzlies - Eric Maynor. Mike Conley Jr. hasn't exactly worked out at point guard, so Memphis gets a potential steal here in Maynor. Maynor was an extremely clutch player in college and should be able to carry his game into the NBA without much of a problem.
28. Minnesota Timberwolves - Jeff Pendergraph. Pendergraph is projected as an early-to-middle second round pick in most mock drafts, but I really like his game. I have already had Minnesota take three guards, so I see them going with a big here.
29. Los Angeles Lakers - Omri Casspi. There really is no big need on this team, but if they do decide to part ways with Lamar Odom, they could use another forward up front.
30. Cleveland Cavaliers - Jeff Teague. With not much left on the board, Cleveland can just go with best player available here, and Teague is that player. He could be drafted as high as the teens or as low as this. He definitely has talent, though; there is no denying that. Still, one must wonder if he would have been better-served spending another year at Wake Forest.
2. Memphis Grizzlies - Hasheem Thabeet. Like Los Angeles, Memphis has already made it known who it wants with their selection, and that player is the 7'3" Thabeet.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder - James Harden. The Thunder already have their point guard of the future in Russell Westbrook, so Ricky Rubio is not needed here. Harden would give Oklahoma City a backcourt of Harden, Westbrook, and Kevin Durant. Talk about a bright future.
4. Sacramento Kings - Ricky Rubio. The biggest need Sacramento has is at point guard, so it goes with Rubio here. There have been rumblings all month that the Kings are very interested in the Spanish floor general.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves - Tyreke Evans. Minnesota opened up a big hole in its backcourt by dealing Randy Foye and Mike Miller to Washington for this pick and other players, but it will begin to remedy that by selecting Evans here.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves - Stephen Curry. Whether or not the Timberwolves actually keep both of these picks remains to be seen, but if they do, I certainly see them going for two guards. With Foye now gone, Minnesota is lacking a talented point guard. Because of that, the Wolves go with the very popular son of Dell Curry.
7. Golden State Warriors - Jordan Hill. If Hill is still on the board by the time Golden State picks (and more than likely, he will be), there shouldn't be much of a thought process here. Hill would fit perfectly in the Warriors' system, and he would give them arguably the most talented group of young big men in the game: Hill, Andris Biedrins, Anthony Randolph, and Brandan Wright.
8. New York Knicks - DeMar DeRozan. Rumor has it that the Knicks are trying to trade up, but if they are unsuccessful in doing so, I see them going with one of the many wings that will be available at this pick. Derozan is the best of them, in my opinion.
9. Toronto Raptors - Jrue Holiday. Toronto is in desperate need of a shooting guard, and although Holiday is a bit of a tweener, he is probably the best two-guard remaining on the board at this point. Holiday's draft stock has fluctuated tremendously over the past month.
10. Milwaukee Bucks - Gerald Henderson. Why so many mock drafts have Milwaukee selecting Jonny Flynn with this pick, I'll never know. Ramon Sessions is clearly this team's point guard of the future. What the Bucks really need is another wing player with the recent Richard Jefferson trade. Henderson fits the bill here.
11. New Jersey Nets - James Johnson. Johnson is the perfect pick for the Nets here. He can play either forward position, and New Jersey needs both a power forward and a small forward. The multi-talented Demon Deacon is one of the more overlooked players in this draft.
12. Charlotte Bobcats - Earl Clark. Charlotte could really use another big man up front, and the versatile Clark would be a nice addition. Similar to Johnson in that he is a bit of a tweener, Clark has an extremely long wing-span that should allow him to be a very solid defender in this league.
13. Indiana Pacers - DeJuan Blair. The Pacers could definitely afford to have another big man, as their frontcourt depth is very questionable. Blair will never be a star, but he is a coach's dream. He hustles on every play and could turn into a solid rebounder in the NBA.
14. Phoenix Suns - Brandon Jennings. Obviously, point guard is not the Suns' biggest need, and the trade of Shaquille O'Neal opens up a gaping hole in the frontcourt, but Phoenix is not going to win this year anyway. The chances of them re-signing Steve Nash in the off-season are very slim, so they might as well take their point guard of the future in Jennings.
15. Detroit Pistons - B.J. Mullens. Mullens really is a huge reach at this pick, but Detroit must take a big man with Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess likely both departing via free agency. Mullens is a project, but he definitely has some skill.
16. Chicago Bulls - Austin Daye. This pick leans heavily on what the Bulls think they are going to do with Ben Gordon in the off-season, but assuming they plan on re-signing him, Chicago goes with a versatile low-post scorer in Daye. As far as raw talent goes, Daye is probably one of the best players in the draft. The key word there is "raw." He needs to add a lot of weight to his frame if he expects to be successful in the NBA.
17. Philadelphia 76ers - Terrence Williams. Williams could be the biggest sleeper in this entire draft. He is very NBA-ready and does nearly everything well. Philadelphia needs depth at the wings, so they take the tough guard out of Louisville.
18. Minnesota Timberwolves - Marcus Thornton. Another big-time sleeper. Thornton is actually a pretty similar player to Williams, and Minnesota could use a tough player like him. He reminds me a lot of Dwyane Wade. He obviously doesn't have his skill-set, but the fact that he is a big-bodied wing with a post-up game leads me to see some Wade in him.
19. Atlanta Hawks - Tyler Hansbrough. Assuming Atlanta lands Jamal Crawford like the rumors say, that pretty much eliminates its need for another backcourt scorer. In that case, I see the Hawks going with a big man. Hansbrough's draft stock has been rising, and with Zaza Pachulia likely on his way out, the North Carolina legend would be a solid pick here.
20. Utah Jazz - Chase Budinger. This is a difficult pick to gauge as it is not known whether or not the Jazz plan on re-signing Carlos Boozer (or if Boozer is even going to opt out of his contract), but assuming Boozer stays, the Jazz will probably go for a wing. Budinger is extremely talented and would fit in very well with Utah.
21. New Orleans Hornets - DaJuan Summers. The Hornets really need another big body that can score up front, and Summers will provide that. He is a versatile forward that can score on the low block and hit the three.
22. Portland Trail Blazers - Jonny Flynn. Some may feel that Flynn is far too low on this mock, but the fact is that not many teams are in need of a point guard right now. Portland really isn't either, as it drafted Jerryd Bayless last season, but the Blazers don't really have any other holes to fill. In case Bayless doesn't work out, they can go with Flynn.
23. Sacramento Kings - Taj Gibson. Gibson is another one of those overlooked players in this draft. The Kings could use a big man here, and Gibson is a very nice talent. He just needs to add some weight to his frame.
24. Dallas Mavericks - Sam Young. Dallas has some flexibility with this pick. They could go for a point guard like Jeff Teague to replace Jason Kidd for the future, or go for some much-needed wing depth. Personally, I see them going for a wing. Young will probably be able to play either wing position in the pros.
25. Oklahoma City Thunder - Dante Cunningham. Cunningham is a player who could very well sneak into the first round, and Oklahoma City could use the depth in the frontcourt. They really need a center more than anything, but there will not be any good ones on the board at this point in the draft.
26. Chicago Bulls - Wayne Ellington. In case Gordon departs, Ellington could certainly fit the void. The North Carolina product is a deadly outside shooter whose game will probably translate well into the pros.
27. Memphis Grizzlies - Eric Maynor. Mike Conley Jr. hasn't exactly worked out at point guard, so Memphis gets a potential steal here in Maynor. Maynor was an extremely clutch player in college and should be able to carry his game into the NBA without much of a problem.
28. Minnesota Timberwolves - Jeff Pendergraph. Pendergraph is projected as an early-to-middle second round pick in most mock drafts, but I really like his game. I have already had Minnesota take three guards, so I see them going with a big here.
29. Los Angeles Lakers - Omri Casspi. There really is no big need on this team, but if they do decide to part ways with Lamar Odom, they could use another forward up front.
30. Cleveland Cavaliers - Jeff Teague. With not much left on the board, Cleveland can just go with best player available here, and Teague is that player. He could be drafted as high as the teens or as low as this. He definitely has talent, though; there is no denying that. Still, one must wonder if he would have been better-served spending another year at Wake Forest.
Sunday, March 15, 2009
NCAA Tournament preview: Midwest
The Midwest is a very, very deep region, as demonstrated by Arizona being the 12-seed. Louisville is number one, with Michigan State and Kansas rounding out the top three. Also landing in the Midwest is Wake Forest (#4) and West Virginia (#6), two teams that many feel can make nice runs in the NCAA Tournament.
Most intriguing first-round matchup: 10 USC vs. 7 Boston College. This game could really go either way. USC enters the Big Dance as one of the hottest teams in the country, as it reeled off four straight to win the Pac-10 Tournament to receive an automatic bid. Boston College can lay claim to wins over North Carolina and Duke, the royalty of the ACC. Don't be fooled by the Trojans' regular-season struggles; they are a very talented team. Freshman DeMar DeRozan was phenomenal in the conference tourney, and Taj Gibson, Daniel Hackett, and Dwight Lewis round out a very impressive foursome for Southern California. The Eagles are led by senior point guard Tyrese Rice, a player who has been known to come up big in big game situations. All things considered, I like USC to carry its momentum into the NCAA Tournament and win this game.
Biggest surprise: Utah earning a five-seed. Don't get me wrong; Utah is a very solid basketball team, but are the Utes worthy of a number five-seed? Their best win of the season was a 30-point drubbing of LSU, who is an eight-seed over in the South. Utah also has a one-point win over Gonzaga, two wins over San Diego State, and lone wins over BYU, UNLV, and New Mexico, but is that enough to warrant them that high of a seed? Actually, the Utes may have been better off getting a lower seed, as they will draw Arizona in the first round.
Biggest sleeper: #12 Arizona. Many are debating whether or not the Wildcats belong in the tournament, and I don't see why. Arizona has non-conference wins over Kansas, Gonzaga, and San Diego State, plus victories inside the Pac-10 over Washington, UCLA, and USC. Not too bad, huh? With a trio of Chase Budinger, Jordan Hill, and Nic Wise, the Wildcats can accomplish great things in the Dance.
Cinderella: #13 Cleveland State. The Horizon League champs enter the NCAA Tournament as a very dangerous 13-seed. The Vikings are very athletic and can certainly cause matchup problems for many teams in the Dance. They obviously have a very tough first-round draw against an extremely talented Wake Forest squad, but I have them pulling off the upset and reaching the Sweet 16.
Region winner: #1 Louisville. As I stated before, there is a ton of talent in the Midwest region, but I think Louisville is clearly the best of the bunch. Terrence Williams and Earl Clark make for one of the most deadly inside-out combinations in the country, and Samardo Samuels appears to be coming into his own at the right time.
Issues with seeding: I already mentioned Utah being seeded too high. I also think Ohio State may have been seeded a tad too low and you could make an argument for Wake Forest being a three, but other than that everything looks good.
Most intriguing first-round matchup: 10 USC vs. 7 Boston College. This game could really go either way. USC enters the Big Dance as one of the hottest teams in the country, as it reeled off four straight to win the Pac-10 Tournament to receive an automatic bid. Boston College can lay claim to wins over North Carolina and Duke, the royalty of the ACC. Don't be fooled by the Trojans' regular-season struggles; they are a very talented team. Freshman DeMar DeRozan was phenomenal in the conference tourney, and Taj Gibson, Daniel Hackett, and Dwight Lewis round out a very impressive foursome for Southern California. The Eagles are led by senior point guard Tyrese Rice, a player who has been known to come up big in big game situations. All things considered, I like USC to carry its momentum into the NCAA Tournament and win this game.
Biggest surprise: Utah earning a five-seed. Don't get me wrong; Utah is a very solid basketball team, but are the Utes worthy of a number five-seed? Their best win of the season was a 30-point drubbing of LSU, who is an eight-seed over in the South. Utah also has a one-point win over Gonzaga, two wins over San Diego State, and lone wins over BYU, UNLV, and New Mexico, but is that enough to warrant them that high of a seed? Actually, the Utes may have been better off getting a lower seed, as they will draw Arizona in the first round.
Biggest sleeper: #12 Arizona. Many are debating whether or not the Wildcats belong in the tournament, and I don't see why. Arizona has non-conference wins over Kansas, Gonzaga, and San Diego State, plus victories inside the Pac-10 over Washington, UCLA, and USC. Not too bad, huh? With a trio of Chase Budinger, Jordan Hill, and Nic Wise, the Wildcats can accomplish great things in the Dance.
Cinderella: #13 Cleveland State. The Horizon League champs enter the NCAA Tournament as a very dangerous 13-seed. The Vikings are very athletic and can certainly cause matchup problems for many teams in the Dance. They obviously have a very tough first-round draw against an extremely talented Wake Forest squad, but I have them pulling off the upset and reaching the Sweet 16.
Region winner: #1 Louisville. As I stated before, there is a ton of talent in the Midwest region, but I think Louisville is clearly the best of the bunch. Terrence Williams and Earl Clark make for one of the most deadly inside-out combinations in the country, and Samardo Samuels appears to be coming into his own at the right time.
Issues with seeding: I already mentioned Utah being seeded too high. I also think Ohio State may have been seeded a tad too low and you could make an argument for Wake Forest being a three, but other than that everything looks good.
Projecting the NCAA Tournament seeds
1: Connecticut, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Louisville
2: Oklahoma, Memphis, Michigan State, Duke
3: Wake Forest, Missouri, Syracuse, Villanova
4: Gonzaga, Kansas, Washington, Purdue
5: Arizona State, Florida State, Xavier, Illinois
6: UCLA, California, West Virginia, Ohio State
7: Marquette, Clemson, Butler, Texas
8: Utah, LSU, Tennessee, Texas A&M
9: Oklahoma State, BYU, Boston College, Michigan
10: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Penn State, Maryland
11: UNLV, Dayton, Temple, USC
12: Siena, Mississippi State, Cleveland State, Utah State
13: Western Kentucky, Northern Iowa, Virginia Commonwealth, Stephen F. Austin
14: North Dakota State, American, Robert Morris, Morgan State
15: Binghamton, Radford, Portland State, East Tennessee State
16: Alabama State, Morehead State, California State Northridge, Chattanooga
2: Oklahoma, Memphis, Michigan State, Duke
3: Wake Forest, Missouri, Syracuse, Villanova
4: Gonzaga, Kansas, Washington, Purdue
5: Arizona State, Florida State, Xavier, Illinois
6: UCLA, California, West Virginia, Ohio State
7: Marquette, Clemson, Butler, Texas
8: Utah, LSU, Tennessee, Texas A&M
9: Oklahoma State, BYU, Boston College, Michigan
10: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Penn State, Maryland
11: UNLV, Dayton, Temple, USC
12: Siena, Mississippi State, Cleveland State, Utah State
13: Western Kentucky, Northern Iowa, Virginia Commonwealth, Stephen F. Austin
14: North Dakota State, American, Robert Morris, Morgan State
15: Binghamton, Radford, Portland State, East Tennessee State
16: Alabama State, Morehead State, California State Northridge, Chattanooga
Projecting the NCAA Tournament field
ACC (7)
Automatic bid: Duke
At large: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College, Maryland
Bubble: None
AMERICA EAST (1)
Automatic bid: Binghamton
ATLANTIC-10 (3)
Automatic bid: Temple
At large: Xavier, Dayton
Bubble: None
BIG 12 (6)
Automatic bid: Missouri
At large: Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Bubble: None
BIG EAST (7)
Automatic bid: Louisville
At large: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia
Bubble: None
BIG SKY (1)
Automatic bid: Portland State
BIG SOUTH (1)
Automatic bid: Radford
BIG TEN (8)
Automatic bid: Purdue
At large: Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State
Bubble: None
BIG WEST (1)
Automatic bid: California State Northridge
COLONIAL ATHLETIC (1)
Automatic bid: Virginia Commonwealth
CONFERENCE USA (1)
Automatic bid: Memphis
HORIZON LEAGUE (2)
Automatic bid: Cleveland State
At large: Butler
Bubble: None
IVY LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: Cornell
MAAC (1)
Automatic bid: Siena
MAC (1)
Automatic bid: Akron
MEAC (1)
Automatic bid: Morgan State
MISSOURI VALLEY (1)
Automatic bid: Northern Iowa
MOUNTAIN WEST (3)
Automatic bid: Utah
At large: BYU, UNLV
Bubble: San Diego State
NORTHEAST (1)
Automatic bid: Robert Morris
OHIO VALLEY (1)
Automatic bid: Morehead State
PAC-10 (6)
Automatic bid: USC
At large: Arizona State, UCLA, Washington, California, Arizona
Bubble: None
PATRIOT LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: American
SEC (3)
Automatic bid: Mississippi State
At large: LSU, Tennessee
Bubble: None
SOUTHERN LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: Chattanooga
SOUTHLAND (1)
Automatic bid: Stephen F. Austin
SUN BELT (1)
Automatic bid: Western Kentucky
SWAC (1)
Automatic bid: Alabama State
WAC (1)
Automatic bid: Utah State
WEST COAST (1)
Automatic bid: Gonzaga
At large: None
Bubble: Saint Mary's
Automatic bid: Duke
At large: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College, Maryland
Bubble: None
AMERICA EAST (1)
Automatic bid: Binghamton
ATLANTIC-10 (3)
Automatic bid: Temple
At large: Xavier, Dayton
Bubble: None
BIG 12 (6)
Automatic bid: Missouri
At large: Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Bubble: None
BIG EAST (7)
Automatic bid: Louisville
At large: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia
Bubble: None
BIG SKY (1)
Automatic bid: Portland State
BIG SOUTH (1)
Automatic bid: Radford
BIG TEN (8)
Automatic bid: Purdue
At large: Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State
Bubble: None
BIG WEST (1)
Automatic bid: California State Northridge
COLONIAL ATHLETIC (1)
Automatic bid: Virginia Commonwealth
CONFERENCE USA (1)
Automatic bid: Memphis
HORIZON LEAGUE (2)
Automatic bid: Cleveland State
At large: Butler
Bubble: None
IVY LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: Cornell
MAAC (1)
Automatic bid: Siena
MAC (1)
Automatic bid: Akron
MEAC (1)
Automatic bid: Morgan State
MISSOURI VALLEY (1)
Automatic bid: Northern Iowa
MOUNTAIN WEST (3)
Automatic bid: Utah
At large: BYU, UNLV
Bubble: San Diego State
NORTHEAST (1)
Automatic bid: Robert Morris
OHIO VALLEY (1)
Automatic bid: Morehead State
PAC-10 (6)
Automatic bid: USC
At large: Arizona State, UCLA, Washington, California, Arizona
Bubble: None
PATRIOT LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: American
SEC (3)
Automatic bid: Mississippi State
At large: LSU, Tennessee
Bubble: None
SOUTHERN LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: Chattanooga
SOUTHLAND (1)
Automatic bid: Stephen F. Austin
SUN BELT (1)
Automatic bid: Western Kentucky
SWAC (1)
Automatic bid: Alabama State
WAC (1)
Automatic bid: Utah State
WEST COAST (1)
Automatic bid: Gonzaga
At large: None
Bubble: Saint Mary's
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Projecting the NCAA Tournament field
ACC (6)
Automatic bid: North Carolina
At large: Wake Forest, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College
Bubble: Maryland
AMERICA EAST (1)
Automatic bid: Binghamton
ATLANTIC SUN (1)
Automatic bid: East Tennessee State
ATLANTIC-10 (2)
Automatic bid: Duquesne
At large: Xavier
Bubble: Dayton
BIG 12 (7)
Automatic bid: Baylor
At large: Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M
Bubble: Oklahoma State
BIG EAST (7)
Automatic bid: Louisville
At large: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia
Bubble: None
BIG SKY (1)
Automatic bid: Portland State
BIG SOUTH (1)
Automatic bid: Radford
BIG TEN (8)
Automatic bid: Michigan State
At large: Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State
Bubble: None
BIG WEST (1)
Automatic bid: Pacific
COLONIAL ATHLETIC (1)
Automatic bid: Virginia Commonwealth
CONFERENCE USA (1)
Automatic bid: Memphis
HORIZON LEAGUE (2)
Automatic bid: Cleveland State
At large: Butler
Bubble: None
IVY LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: Cornell
MAAC (1)
Automatic bid: Siena
MAC (1)
Automatic bid: Buffalo
MEAC (1)
Automatic bid: Morgan State
MISSOURI VALLEY (1)
Automatic bid: Northern Iowa
MOUNTAIN WEST (4)
Automatic bid: San Diego State
At large: Utah, BYU, UNLV
Bubble: None
NORTHEAST (1)
Automatic bid: Robert Morris
OHIO VALLEY (1)
Automatic bid: Morehead State
PAC-10 (6)
Automatic bid: USC
At large: Arizona State, UCLA, Washington, California, Arizona
Bubble: None
PATRIOT LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: American
SEC (2)
Automatic bid: Auburn
At large: LSU
Bubble: Tennessee
SOUTHERN LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: Chattanooga
SOUTHLAND (1)
Automatic bid: Stephen F. Austin
SUMMIT LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: North Dakota State
SUN BELT (1)
Automatic bid: Western Kentucky
SWAC (1)
Automatic bid: Alabama State
WAC (1)
Automatic bid: Nevada
WEST COAST (1)
Automatic bid: Gonzaga
At large: None
Bubble: Saint Mary's
Automatic bid: North Carolina
At large: Wake Forest, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College
Bubble: Maryland
AMERICA EAST (1)
Automatic bid: Binghamton
ATLANTIC SUN (1)
Automatic bid: East Tennessee State
ATLANTIC-10 (2)
Automatic bid: Duquesne
At large: Xavier
Bubble: Dayton
BIG 12 (7)
Automatic bid: Baylor
At large: Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M
Bubble: Oklahoma State
BIG EAST (7)
Automatic bid: Louisville
At large: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia
Bubble: None
BIG SKY (1)
Automatic bid: Portland State
BIG SOUTH (1)
Automatic bid: Radford
BIG TEN (8)
Automatic bid: Michigan State
At large: Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State
Bubble: None
BIG WEST (1)
Automatic bid: Pacific
COLONIAL ATHLETIC (1)
Automatic bid: Virginia Commonwealth
CONFERENCE USA (1)
Automatic bid: Memphis
HORIZON LEAGUE (2)
Automatic bid: Cleveland State
At large: Butler
Bubble: None
IVY LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: Cornell
MAAC (1)
Automatic bid: Siena
MAC (1)
Automatic bid: Buffalo
MEAC (1)
Automatic bid: Morgan State
MISSOURI VALLEY (1)
Automatic bid: Northern Iowa
MOUNTAIN WEST (4)
Automatic bid: San Diego State
At large: Utah, BYU, UNLV
Bubble: None
NORTHEAST (1)
Automatic bid: Robert Morris
OHIO VALLEY (1)
Automatic bid: Morehead State
PAC-10 (6)
Automatic bid: USC
At large: Arizona State, UCLA, Washington, California, Arizona
Bubble: None
PATRIOT LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: American
SEC (2)
Automatic bid: Auburn
At large: LSU
Bubble: Tennessee
SOUTHERN LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: Chattanooga
SOUTHLAND (1)
Automatic bid: Stephen F. Austin
SUMMIT LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: North Dakota State
SUN BELT (1)
Automatic bid: Western Kentucky
SWAC (1)
Automatic bid: Alabama State
WAC (1)
Automatic bid: Nevada
WEST COAST (1)
Automatic bid: Gonzaga
At large: None
Bubble: Saint Mary's
Sunday, March 08, 2009
Projecting the NCAA Tournament field
ACC (7)
Automatic bid: North Carolina
At large: Wake Forest, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College, Miami
Bubble: Virginia Tech
AMERICA EAST (1)
Automatic bid: UMBC
ATLANTIC-10 (2)
Automatic bid: Dayton
At large: Xavier
Bubble: None
ATLANTIC SUN (1)
Automatic bid: East Tennessee State
BIG 12 (5)
Automatic bid: Missouri
At large: Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M
Bubble: None
BIG EAST (7)
Automatic bid: Connecticut
At large: Pittsburgh, Louisville, Syracuse, Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia
Bubble: Providence
BIG SKY (1)
Automatic bid: Weber State
BIG SOUTH (1)
Automatic bid: Radford
BIG TEN (8)
Automatic bid: Michigan State
At large: Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin
Bubble: Northwestern
BIG WEST (1)
Automatic bid: Pacific
COLONIAL ATHLETIC (1)
Automatic bid: George Mason
CONFERENCE USA (1)
Automatic bid: Memphis
HORIZON LEAGUE (2)
Automatic bid: Cleveland State
At large: Butler
Bubble: None
IVY LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: Cornell
MAAC (1)
Automatic bid: Siena
MAC (1)
Automatic bid: Buffalo
MEAC (1)
Automatic bid: Morgan State
MISSOURI VALLEY (1)
Automatic bid: Northern Iowa
MOUNTAIN WEST (4)
Automatic bid: New Mexico
At large: UNLV, Utah, BYU
Bubble: None
NORTHEAST (1)
Automatic bid: Robert Morris
OHIO VALLEY (1)
Automatic bid: Morehead State
PAC-10 (5)
Automatic bid: Arizona State
At large: UCLA, Arizona, Washington, California
Bubble: None
PATRIOT LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: American
SEC (2)
Automatic bid: Auburn
At large: LSU
Bubble: Tennessee, South Carolina
SOUTHERN LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: College of Charleston
SOUTHLAND (1)
Automatic bid: Stephen F. Austin
SUMMIT LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: North Dakota State
SUN BELT (1)
Automatic bid: Troy
SWAC (1)
Automatic bid: Alabama State
WAC (1)
Automatic bid: Nevada
WEST COAST (2)
Automatic bid: Portland
At large: Gonzaga
Bubble: None
Automatic bid: North Carolina
At large: Wake Forest, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College, Miami
Bubble: Virginia Tech
AMERICA EAST (1)
Automatic bid: UMBC
ATLANTIC-10 (2)
Automatic bid: Dayton
At large: Xavier
Bubble: None
ATLANTIC SUN (1)
Automatic bid: East Tennessee State
BIG 12 (5)
Automatic bid: Missouri
At large: Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M
Bubble: None
BIG EAST (7)
Automatic bid: Connecticut
At large: Pittsburgh, Louisville, Syracuse, Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia
Bubble: Providence
BIG SKY (1)
Automatic bid: Weber State
BIG SOUTH (1)
Automatic bid: Radford
BIG TEN (8)
Automatic bid: Michigan State
At large: Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin
Bubble: Northwestern
BIG WEST (1)
Automatic bid: Pacific
COLONIAL ATHLETIC (1)
Automatic bid: George Mason
CONFERENCE USA (1)
Automatic bid: Memphis
HORIZON LEAGUE (2)
Automatic bid: Cleveland State
At large: Butler
Bubble: None
IVY LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: Cornell
MAAC (1)
Automatic bid: Siena
MAC (1)
Automatic bid: Buffalo
MEAC (1)
Automatic bid: Morgan State
MISSOURI VALLEY (1)
Automatic bid: Northern Iowa
MOUNTAIN WEST (4)
Automatic bid: New Mexico
At large: UNLV, Utah, BYU
Bubble: None
NORTHEAST (1)
Automatic bid: Robert Morris
OHIO VALLEY (1)
Automatic bid: Morehead State
PAC-10 (5)
Automatic bid: Arizona State
At large: UCLA, Arizona, Washington, California
Bubble: None
PATRIOT LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: American
SEC (2)
Automatic bid: Auburn
At large: LSU
Bubble: Tennessee, South Carolina
SOUTHERN LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: College of Charleston
SOUTHLAND (1)
Automatic bid: Stephen F. Austin
SUMMIT LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: North Dakota State
SUN BELT (1)
Automatic bid: Troy
SWAC (1)
Automatic bid: Alabama State
WAC (1)
Automatic bid: Nevada
WEST COAST (2)
Automatic bid: Portland
At large: Gonzaga
Bubble: None
Friday, March 06, 2009
The Bubble
ACC
Boston College (20-10, 8-7)
Signature wins: at North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, at Maryland
Other notable wins: Virginia Tech, UAB, Providence
Key losses: at Saint Louis, Harvard, swept by Miami
Remaining games: Georgia Tech
Breakdown: Boston College certainly did not do itself any favors by losing to North Carolina State on Wednesday, but it should still have enough quality wins to be worthy of the NCAA Tournament. However, if the Eagles fall to Georgia Tech in their season finale, things could get messy, as BC would then finish at a mediocre 8-8 in conference play with numerous bad losses on top of that.
Virginia Tech (17-12, 7-8)
Signature wins: at Wake Forest, at Clemson, Boston College, at Miami
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: at Georgia, at Virginia, swept by Duke
Remaining games: at Florida State
Breakdown: The only thing keeping the Hokies alive right now is their very impressive road wins. If Virginia Tech manages to take out Florida State in its last game, then it may very well find itself in the Big Dance. Still, the Hokies have lost five of their last six, including a 14-point loss to Virginia. Plus, they lost to Georgia earlier in the year. Those two defeats could be what ends up dooming VT on Selection Sunday. Either way, a win over the Seminoles and then making some noise in the ACC Tournament should get them into the NCAAs.
Maryland (18-11, 7-8)
Signature wins: North Carolina, Michigan State, Miami
Other notable wins: Michigan, Virginia Tech
Key losses: Morgan State, swept by Duke (lost by 41 at Duke), 29-point loss to Clemson, 27-point loss to Georgetown
Remaining games: at Virginia
Breakdown: What is really going to hurt Maryland come Selection Sunday is its dubious assortment of bad losses. The Terrapins may have gotten blown out one too many times to make the NCAA Tournament, its wins over North Carolina and Michigan State notwithstanding. Also notable is the fact that none of the Terps' big wins came on the road. Maryland must beat Virginia and then probably has to win some games in the ACC Tourney to receive an invitation to the Big Dance.
Miami (17-11, 6-9)
Signature wins: Wake Forest, swept Boston College, at Kentucky, Florida State
Other notable wins: Maryland
Key losses: at Georgia Tech
Remaining games: North Carolina State
Breakdown: The Hurricanes' loss to Georgia Tech may have been the final nail in the coffin to their at-large hopes. Miami can now do no better than 7-9 in conference play, and a good portion of its signature wins is losing steam. The 'Canes will more than likely have to make a deep run in the ACC Tournament (they might even have to make the final) to earn a bid. Of course, they have to beat N.C. State, first.
BIG 12
Texas A&M (22-8, 8-7)
Signature wins: Arizona, LSU, Texas
Other notable wins: Oklahoma State
Key losses: at Tulsa
Remaining games: Missouri
Breakdown: The Aggies' at-large hopes probably rest on Saturday's game against Missouri. If they can pull out a win over the Tigers, they will probably find themselves in the Dance barring a first round exit in the Big 12 Tournament. A win over Missouri would not only give Texas A&M a much-needed signature victory, but it would also put it over .500 in conference play. 23 wins looks pretty good, too. But, if A&M falls in its season finale, it will have some work to do in the conference tourney to garner a bid from the selection committee.
Oklahoma State (20-9, 9-6)
Signature wins: Texas
Other notable wins: Texas A&M, Kansas State
Key losses: 25-point loss at Texas
Remaining games: at Oklahoma
Breakdown: The Cowboys' ultimate downfall may be their lack of quality wins. The only victory that really stands out on their résumé is the one over Texas, and the Longhorns aren't even ranked. Oklahoma State absolutely has to take down Oklahoma on Saturday afternoon, or else its at-large hopes will hinge on a deep run in the conference tournament.
BIG EAST
West Virginia (21-9, 10-8)
Signature wins: 21-point win over Villanova, at Ohio State, 27-point win over Providence, at Georgetown
Other notable wins: Notre Dame
Key losses: None
Remaining games: Louisville
Breakdown: Even though their overall résumé isn't particularly eye-catching, the Mountaineers will more than likely be in the tournament because of their great computer numbers. The 20+ point wins over Villanova and Providence don't hurt, either. West Virginia would obviously lock up a bid if it is able to take out Louisville on Saturday night, but it probably doesn't even need to unless it plans on losing in the first round of the Big East Tournament.
Providence (18-12, 10-8)
Signature wins: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, swept Cincinnati
Other notable wins: Rhode Island
Key losses: Northeastern, 33-point loss at Connecticut, 27-point loss at West Virginia
Remaining games: None
Breakdown: Unfortunately for the Friars, their regular season résumé will most likely not be gaudy enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament. Had they won at Villanova in their season finale, we would be talking about what seed Providence was likely to earn in the Dance, but the Wildcats beat the Friars by 17. Providence needs to go on a nice run in the Big East Tournament to win over the selection committee.
Georgetown (15-13, 6-11)
Signature wins: at Connecticut, Memphis, Syracuse, at Villanova
Other notable wins: 27-point win over Maryland, Providence
Key losses: Swept by Cincinnati, Seton Hall, St. John's
Remaining schedule: DePaul
Breakdown: Obviously, Georgetown is going to have to make some noise in the conference tournament if it wants any chance of making the NCAAs. Its chances were starting to look better after taking out Villanova on the road to add to its list of signature wins, but then the Hoyas went and lost to St. John's, all but ending their at-large hopes. Georgetown probably has to get to the final in the Big East Tourney to earn a bid.
BIG TEN
Michigan (18-12, 8-9)
Signature wins: Duke, UCLA, Purdue, Illinois, Penn State, Minnesota, swept Northwestern
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: Swept by Ohio State and Wisconsin, at Iowa
Remaining games: at Minnesota
Breakdown: Michigan's résumé is starting to look better and better now that Penn State has locked up an NCAA Tournament bid and Northwestern is also making a case to make the field of 65. If the Wolverines win at Minnesota on Saturday, they are a lock. If they lose, they will still probably be in, but looking good in the Big Ten Tournament won't hurt.
Wisconsin (18-11, 9-8)
Signature wins: Illinois, Ohio State, swept Penn State and Michigan
Other notable wins: at Virginia Tech, 29-point win over Northwestern
Key losses: at Iowa, swept by Purdue
Remaining games: Indiana
Breakdown: Wisconsin looks to be in good shape, but it absolutely cannot afford to lose to Indiana in its season finale. The sweeps over Penn State and Michigan is what really makes the Badgers' case all the more legitimate. Still, if Wisconsin falters against the Hoosiers or in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, things might get testy.
Northwestern (17-11, 8-9)
Signature wins: at Michigan State, at Purdue, Ohio State, Florida State, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: at Iowa, 29-point loss at Wisconsin, 27-point loss at Minnesota
Remaining games: at Ohio State
Breakdown: Northwestern has gotten hot and is re-stating its case to make the NCAA Tournament. It certainly has a solid array of quality wins, particulary on the road where the Wildcats have beaten both Michigan State and Purdue. If they win at Ohio State on Sunday to add yet another impressive road win to their résumé plus a sweep of the Buckeyes to put the cherry on top, Northwestern will more than likely find itself on the committee's good side come Selection Sunday.
MOUNTAIN WEST
BYU (23-6, 11-4)
Signature wins: Utah
Other notable wins: Swept San Diego State, at Utah State, New Mexico
Key losses: Swept by UNLV
Remaining games: Air Force
Breakdown: BYU has taken care of business against all of its inferior opponents this season, and that is very important to the selection committee. However, it has to avoid a slip-up against Air Force, as the Cougars might not have enough signature victories to make up for such a loss. Still, even if they do fall to the Falcons, they will get an opportunity to redeem themselves in the conference tournament.
PAC-10
Arizona (18-12, 8-9)
Signature wins: Kansas, UCLA, Washington, Gonzaga
Other notable wins: San Diego State, USC
Key losses: Swept by California and Arizona State
Remaining games: Stanford
Breakdown: Over the course of three weeks, Arizona went from being in great shape to being right on the fence. After a stretch where the Wildcats won seven in a row, including wins over Washington and UCLA, Arizona has now dropped four straight, one of which was a 16-point loss at Washington State. You still have to believe that if the 'Cats beat Stanford on Saturday to finish 9-9 in the Pac-10 that their nice array of quality wins will carry them to the Dance, but a solid performance in the conference tournament might also be needed. 'Zona is certainly digging its own grave; that's for sure.
SEC
South Carolina (20-8, 9-6)
Signature wins: Swept Kentucky
Other notable wins: Florida, at Baylor
Key losses: College of Charleston, swept by Tennessee
Remaining games: at Georgia
Breakdown: South Carolina is in deep, deep trouble, losing three of its last five, two of those losses coming against non-tournament teams in Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. The other? To conference bubble rival Tennessee, who probably locked up an at-large berth by completing the season sweep of the Gamecocks. South Carolina has to beat Georgia and then go deep into the SEC Tournament to receive an invitation to the NCAAs. Heck, it might even have to win the whole conference tourney.
Kentucky (19-11, 8-7)
Signature wins: Swept Tennessee, West Virginia
Other notable wins: Florida, Kansas State
Key losses: Georgia, VMI
Remaining games: at Florida
Breakdown: Wow. Just wow. Those are the only thoughts one can possibly have after Kentucky lost at home to Georgia on senior day when it was fighting for an NCAA Tournament berth. Oh, and did I mention they lost at home to Georgia? The Wildcats have to win at Florida to close out the season if they want any shot at an at-large bid. Doing so might get them in, as it would give them sweeps over both the Gators and Tennessee. Still, I really think Kentucky needs to go on a nice run in the conference tournament. That loss to the Bulldogs is really going to haunt them.
OTHER TEAMS FROM OTHER CONFERENCES
Dayton (24-6, 10-5)
Signature wins: at Marquette, Xavier
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: at Massachusetts
Remaining games: Duquesne
Breakdown: After failing to complete the season sweep of Xavier, Dayton definitely needs to, at the very least, get to the Atlantic-10 title game to earn an at-large bid. Outside of the win in its first meeting with the Musketeers and a victory at Marquette, the Flyers don't have anything else to hang their hats on. One might even venture to say that Dayton has to win its conference tournament in order to go dancing.
Saint Mary's (24-5, 10-4)
Signature wins: None
Other notable wins: Providence, at San Diego State, Utah State
Key losses: Swept by Gonzaga, 18-point losses at Santa Clara and home against Portland
Remaining games: None
Breakdown: Patrick Mills will be back for the WCC Tournament, so that will obviously be a huge lift for the Gaels. Saint Mary's might be the most difficult team for the selection committee to judge. How much will they take Mills' injury into account when evaluating the Gaels? It remains to be seen, but it would really behoove Saint Mary's to win its conference tournament, as it just does not have the signature wins that most of the other bubble teams can lay claim to.
Boston College (20-10, 8-7)
Signature wins: at North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, at Maryland
Other notable wins: Virginia Tech, UAB, Providence
Key losses: at Saint Louis, Harvard, swept by Miami
Remaining games: Georgia Tech
Breakdown: Boston College certainly did not do itself any favors by losing to North Carolina State on Wednesday, but it should still have enough quality wins to be worthy of the NCAA Tournament. However, if the Eagles fall to Georgia Tech in their season finale, things could get messy, as BC would then finish at a mediocre 8-8 in conference play with numerous bad losses on top of that.
Virginia Tech (17-12, 7-8)
Signature wins: at Wake Forest, at Clemson, Boston College, at Miami
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: at Georgia, at Virginia, swept by Duke
Remaining games: at Florida State
Breakdown: The only thing keeping the Hokies alive right now is their very impressive road wins. If Virginia Tech manages to take out Florida State in its last game, then it may very well find itself in the Big Dance. Still, the Hokies have lost five of their last six, including a 14-point loss to Virginia. Plus, they lost to Georgia earlier in the year. Those two defeats could be what ends up dooming VT on Selection Sunday. Either way, a win over the Seminoles and then making some noise in the ACC Tournament should get them into the NCAAs.
Maryland (18-11, 7-8)
Signature wins: North Carolina, Michigan State, Miami
Other notable wins: Michigan, Virginia Tech
Key losses: Morgan State, swept by Duke (lost by 41 at Duke), 29-point loss to Clemson, 27-point loss to Georgetown
Remaining games: at Virginia
Breakdown: What is really going to hurt Maryland come Selection Sunday is its dubious assortment of bad losses. The Terrapins may have gotten blown out one too many times to make the NCAA Tournament, its wins over North Carolina and Michigan State notwithstanding. Also notable is the fact that none of the Terps' big wins came on the road. Maryland must beat Virginia and then probably has to win some games in the ACC Tourney to receive an invitation to the Big Dance.
Miami (17-11, 6-9)
Signature wins: Wake Forest, swept Boston College, at Kentucky, Florida State
Other notable wins: Maryland
Key losses: at Georgia Tech
Remaining games: North Carolina State
Breakdown: The Hurricanes' loss to Georgia Tech may have been the final nail in the coffin to their at-large hopes. Miami can now do no better than 7-9 in conference play, and a good portion of its signature wins is losing steam. The 'Canes will more than likely have to make a deep run in the ACC Tournament (they might even have to make the final) to earn a bid. Of course, they have to beat N.C. State, first.
BIG 12
Texas A&M (22-8, 8-7)
Signature wins: Arizona, LSU, Texas
Other notable wins: Oklahoma State
Key losses: at Tulsa
Remaining games: Missouri
Breakdown: The Aggies' at-large hopes probably rest on Saturday's game against Missouri. If they can pull out a win over the Tigers, they will probably find themselves in the Dance barring a first round exit in the Big 12 Tournament. A win over Missouri would not only give Texas A&M a much-needed signature victory, but it would also put it over .500 in conference play. 23 wins looks pretty good, too. But, if A&M falls in its season finale, it will have some work to do in the conference tourney to garner a bid from the selection committee.
Oklahoma State (20-9, 9-6)
Signature wins: Texas
Other notable wins: Texas A&M, Kansas State
Key losses: 25-point loss at Texas
Remaining games: at Oklahoma
Breakdown: The Cowboys' ultimate downfall may be their lack of quality wins. The only victory that really stands out on their résumé is the one over Texas, and the Longhorns aren't even ranked. Oklahoma State absolutely has to take down Oklahoma on Saturday afternoon, or else its at-large hopes will hinge on a deep run in the conference tournament.
BIG EAST
West Virginia (21-9, 10-8)
Signature wins: 21-point win over Villanova, at Ohio State, 27-point win over Providence, at Georgetown
Other notable wins: Notre Dame
Key losses: None
Remaining games: Louisville
Breakdown: Even though their overall résumé isn't particularly eye-catching, the Mountaineers will more than likely be in the tournament because of their great computer numbers. The 20+ point wins over Villanova and Providence don't hurt, either. West Virginia would obviously lock up a bid if it is able to take out Louisville on Saturday night, but it probably doesn't even need to unless it plans on losing in the first round of the Big East Tournament.
Providence (18-12, 10-8)
Signature wins: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, swept Cincinnati
Other notable wins: Rhode Island
Key losses: Northeastern, 33-point loss at Connecticut, 27-point loss at West Virginia
Remaining games: None
Breakdown: Unfortunately for the Friars, their regular season résumé will most likely not be gaudy enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament. Had they won at Villanova in their season finale, we would be talking about what seed Providence was likely to earn in the Dance, but the Wildcats beat the Friars by 17. Providence needs to go on a nice run in the Big East Tournament to win over the selection committee.
Georgetown (15-13, 6-11)
Signature wins: at Connecticut, Memphis, Syracuse, at Villanova
Other notable wins: 27-point win over Maryland, Providence
Key losses: Swept by Cincinnati, Seton Hall, St. John's
Remaining schedule: DePaul
Breakdown: Obviously, Georgetown is going to have to make some noise in the conference tournament if it wants any chance of making the NCAAs. Its chances were starting to look better after taking out Villanova on the road to add to its list of signature wins, but then the Hoyas went and lost to St. John's, all but ending their at-large hopes. Georgetown probably has to get to the final in the Big East Tourney to earn a bid.
BIG TEN
Michigan (18-12, 8-9)
Signature wins: Duke, UCLA, Purdue, Illinois, Penn State, Minnesota, swept Northwestern
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: Swept by Ohio State and Wisconsin, at Iowa
Remaining games: at Minnesota
Breakdown: Michigan's résumé is starting to look better and better now that Penn State has locked up an NCAA Tournament bid and Northwestern is also making a case to make the field of 65. If the Wolverines win at Minnesota on Saturday, they are a lock. If they lose, they will still probably be in, but looking good in the Big Ten Tournament won't hurt.
Wisconsin (18-11, 9-8)
Signature wins: Illinois, Ohio State, swept Penn State and Michigan
Other notable wins: at Virginia Tech, 29-point win over Northwestern
Key losses: at Iowa, swept by Purdue
Remaining games: Indiana
Breakdown: Wisconsin looks to be in good shape, but it absolutely cannot afford to lose to Indiana in its season finale. The sweeps over Penn State and Michigan is what really makes the Badgers' case all the more legitimate. Still, if Wisconsin falters against the Hoosiers or in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, things might get testy.
Northwestern (17-11, 8-9)
Signature wins: at Michigan State, at Purdue, Ohio State, Florida State, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: at Iowa, 29-point loss at Wisconsin, 27-point loss at Minnesota
Remaining games: at Ohio State
Breakdown: Northwestern has gotten hot and is re-stating its case to make the NCAA Tournament. It certainly has a solid array of quality wins, particulary on the road where the Wildcats have beaten both Michigan State and Purdue. If they win at Ohio State on Sunday to add yet another impressive road win to their résumé plus a sweep of the Buckeyes to put the cherry on top, Northwestern will more than likely find itself on the committee's good side come Selection Sunday.
MOUNTAIN WEST
BYU (23-6, 11-4)
Signature wins: Utah
Other notable wins: Swept San Diego State, at Utah State, New Mexico
Key losses: Swept by UNLV
Remaining games: Air Force
Breakdown: BYU has taken care of business against all of its inferior opponents this season, and that is very important to the selection committee. However, it has to avoid a slip-up against Air Force, as the Cougars might not have enough signature victories to make up for such a loss. Still, even if they do fall to the Falcons, they will get an opportunity to redeem themselves in the conference tournament.
PAC-10
Arizona (18-12, 8-9)
Signature wins: Kansas, UCLA, Washington, Gonzaga
Other notable wins: San Diego State, USC
Key losses: Swept by California and Arizona State
Remaining games: Stanford
Breakdown: Over the course of three weeks, Arizona went from being in great shape to being right on the fence. After a stretch where the Wildcats won seven in a row, including wins over Washington and UCLA, Arizona has now dropped four straight, one of which was a 16-point loss at Washington State. You still have to believe that if the 'Cats beat Stanford on Saturday to finish 9-9 in the Pac-10 that their nice array of quality wins will carry them to the Dance, but a solid performance in the conference tournament might also be needed. 'Zona is certainly digging its own grave; that's for sure.
SEC
South Carolina (20-8, 9-6)
Signature wins: Swept Kentucky
Other notable wins: Florida, at Baylor
Key losses: College of Charleston, swept by Tennessee
Remaining games: at Georgia
Breakdown: South Carolina is in deep, deep trouble, losing three of its last five, two of those losses coming against non-tournament teams in Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. The other? To conference bubble rival Tennessee, who probably locked up an at-large berth by completing the season sweep of the Gamecocks. South Carolina has to beat Georgia and then go deep into the SEC Tournament to receive an invitation to the NCAAs. Heck, it might even have to win the whole conference tourney.
Kentucky (19-11, 8-7)
Signature wins: Swept Tennessee, West Virginia
Other notable wins: Florida, Kansas State
Key losses: Georgia, VMI
Remaining games: at Florida
Breakdown: Wow. Just wow. Those are the only thoughts one can possibly have after Kentucky lost at home to Georgia on senior day when it was fighting for an NCAA Tournament berth. Oh, and did I mention they lost at home to Georgia? The Wildcats have to win at Florida to close out the season if they want any shot at an at-large bid. Doing so might get them in, as it would give them sweeps over both the Gators and Tennessee. Still, I really think Kentucky needs to go on a nice run in the conference tournament. That loss to the Bulldogs is really going to haunt them.
OTHER TEAMS FROM OTHER CONFERENCES
Dayton (24-6, 10-5)
Signature wins: at Marquette, Xavier
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: at Massachusetts
Remaining games: Duquesne
Breakdown: After failing to complete the season sweep of Xavier, Dayton definitely needs to, at the very least, get to the Atlantic-10 title game to earn an at-large bid. Outside of the win in its first meeting with the Musketeers and a victory at Marquette, the Flyers don't have anything else to hang their hats on. One might even venture to say that Dayton has to win its conference tournament in order to go dancing.
Saint Mary's (24-5, 10-4)
Signature wins: None
Other notable wins: Providence, at San Diego State, Utah State
Key losses: Swept by Gonzaga, 18-point losses at Santa Clara and home against Portland
Remaining games: None
Breakdown: Patrick Mills will be back for the WCC Tournament, so that will obviously be a huge lift for the Gaels. Saint Mary's might be the most difficult team for the selection committee to judge. How much will they take Mills' injury into account when evaluating the Gaels? It remains to be seen, but it would really behoove Saint Mary's to win its conference tournament, as it just does not have the signature wins that most of the other bubble teams can lay claim to.
Thursday, March 05, 2009
Projecting the NCAA Tournament field
ACC (6)
Automatic bid: North Carolina
At large: Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College
Bubble: Miami, Virginia Tech, Maryland
AMERICA EAST (1)
Automatic bid: Vermont
ATLANTIC-10 (2)
Automatic bid: Dayton
At large: Xavier
Bubble: None
ATLANTIC SUN (1)
Automatic bid: Belmont
BIG 12 (4)
Automatic bid: Missouri
At large: Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas
Bubble: Texas A&M
BIG EAST (7)
Automatic bid: Connecticut
At large: Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Bubble: Providence, Georgetown
BIG SKY (1)
Automatic bid: Weber State
BIG SOUTH (1)
Automatic bid: Liberty
BIG TEN (9)
Automatic bid: Michigan State
At large: Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State, Northwestern
Bubble: None
BIG WEST (1)
Automatic bid: Pacific
COLONIAL ATHLETIC (1)
Automatic bid: George Mason
CONFERENCE USA (1)
Automatic bid: Memphis
HORIZON LEAGUE (2)
Automatic bid: Green Bay
At large: Butler
Bubble: None
IVY LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: Cornell
MAAC (1)
Automatic bid: Siena
MAC (1)
Automatic bid: Buffalo
MEAC (1)
Automatic bid: Morgan State
MISSOURI VALLEY (1)
Automatic bid: Creighton
MOUNTAIN WEST (4)
Automatic bid: New Mexico
At large: UNLV, Utah, BYU
Bubble: None
NORTHEAST (1)
Automatic bid: Robert Morris
OHIO VALLEY (1)
Automatic bid: Tennessee-Martin
PAC-10 (5)
Automatic bid: Arizona State
At large: UCLA, Washington, Arizona, California
Bubble: None
PATRIOT LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: American
SEC (3)
Automatic bid: Auburn
At large: LSU, Tennessee
Bubble: South Carolina, Kentucky
SOUTHERN LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: Davidson
SOUTHLAND (1)
Automatic bid: Stephen F. Austin
SUMMIT LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: North Dakota State
SUN BELT (1)
Automatic bid: Troy
SWAC (1)
Automatic bid: Alabama State
WAC (1)
Automatic bid: Nevada
WEST COAST (2)
Automatic bid: San Diego
At large: Gonzaga
Bubble: Saint Mary's
Automatic bid: North Carolina
At large: Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College
Bubble: Miami, Virginia Tech, Maryland
AMERICA EAST (1)
Automatic bid: Vermont
ATLANTIC-10 (2)
Automatic bid: Dayton
At large: Xavier
Bubble: None
ATLANTIC SUN (1)
Automatic bid: Belmont
BIG 12 (4)
Automatic bid: Missouri
At large: Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas
Bubble: Texas A&M
BIG EAST (7)
Automatic bid: Connecticut
At large: Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Bubble: Providence, Georgetown
BIG SKY (1)
Automatic bid: Weber State
BIG SOUTH (1)
Automatic bid: Liberty
BIG TEN (9)
Automatic bid: Michigan State
At large: Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State, Northwestern
Bubble: None
BIG WEST (1)
Automatic bid: Pacific
COLONIAL ATHLETIC (1)
Automatic bid: George Mason
CONFERENCE USA (1)
Automatic bid: Memphis
HORIZON LEAGUE (2)
Automatic bid: Green Bay
At large: Butler
Bubble: None
IVY LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: Cornell
MAAC (1)
Automatic bid: Siena
MAC (1)
Automatic bid: Buffalo
MEAC (1)
Automatic bid: Morgan State
MISSOURI VALLEY (1)
Automatic bid: Creighton
MOUNTAIN WEST (4)
Automatic bid: New Mexico
At large: UNLV, Utah, BYU
Bubble: None
NORTHEAST (1)
Automatic bid: Robert Morris
OHIO VALLEY (1)
Automatic bid: Tennessee-Martin
PAC-10 (5)
Automatic bid: Arizona State
At large: UCLA, Washington, Arizona, California
Bubble: None
PATRIOT LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: American
SEC (3)
Automatic bid: Auburn
At large: LSU, Tennessee
Bubble: South Carolina, Kentucky
SOUTHERN LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: Davidson
SOUTHLAND (1)
Automatic bid: Stephen F. Austin
SUMMIT LEAGUE (1)
Automatic bid: North Dakota State
SUN BELT (1)
Automatic bid: Troy
SWAC (1)
Automatic bid: Alabama State
WAC (1)
Automatic bid: Nevada
WEST COAST (2)
Automatic bid: San Diego
At large: Gonzaga
Bubble: Saint Mary's
Monday, March 02, 2009
The Bubble
ACC
Boston College (20-9, 8-6)
Signature wins: at North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, at Maryland
Other notable wins: Virginia Tech, UAB, Providence
Key losses: at Saint Louis, Harvard, swept by Miami
Remaining games: at North Carolina State, Georgia Tech
Breakdown: The Eagles are in the same position they were at the last bubble watch, as they have not played a game over the past week. Boston College should have put together enough quality wins to be safe come Selection Sunday, its wins over North Carolina and Duke obviously the most notable. Still, BC better avoid getting upset by either NC State or Georgia Tech, or its at-large chances might take a bit of a hit.
Miami (17-10, 6-8)
Signature wins: Wake Forest, swept Boston College, at Kentucky, Florida State
Other notable wins: Maryland
Key losses: None
Remaining games: at Georgia Tech, North Carolina State
Breakdown: The Hurricanes took care of business against Virginia and now must take out Georgia Tech and NC State to finish .500 in the ACC. Miami probably has enough signature wins to sneak into the NCAA Tournament with an 8-8 record in conference play, but it would behoove the 'Canes to have a good showing in the ACC Tournament to secure themselves a spot.
Virginia Tech (17-11, 7-7)
Signature wins: at Wake Forest, at Clemson, Boston College, at Miami
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: at Georgia, at Virginia
Remaining games: North Carolina, at Florida State
Breakdown: Virginia Tech could have clinched a spot in the Big Dance had it beaten Duke this past weekend, but it fell just short, and it doesn't get any easier, as the Hokies must now gear up for North Carolina and FSU. A win over either of those two teams would most likely put VT in the Dance, especially if it is able to defeat the Tar Heels, which would probably guarantee the Hokies a berth in the field of 65. However, if Virginia Tech falls short in both contests, it will have to put forth some kind of performance in the ACC Tournament to earn an invite.
Maryland (18-10, 7-7)
Signature wins: North Carolina, Michigan State, Miami
Other notable wins: Michigan, Virginia Tech
Key losses: Morgan State, swept by Duke (lost by 41 at Duke), 29-point loss to Clemson, 27-point loss to Georgetown
Remaining games: Wake Forest, at Virginia
Breakdown: The Terrapins have some very nice wins on their résumé, particularly the two against North Carolina and Michigan State. Their win over Michigan also holds a bit more weight now, but the question is whether or not all of the ugly losses Maryland has endured will overshadow the bright side of their case. If the Terps beat Wake Forest on Tuesday, they are as good as in, but if they fall to the Demon Deacons, they will have to go on a nice run in the ACC Tourney to reach the NCAAs.
BIG 12
Kansas State (20-9, 8-6)
Signature wins: Missouri, at Texas
Other notable wins: at Texas A&M
Key losses: at Iowa, at Oregon, 22-point loss at Nebraska
Remaining games: at Oklahoma State, Colorado
Breakdown: Kansas State is a classic, classic bubble team. It has a very solid overall record, a respectable in-conference record, and a few quality wins scattered about its résumé. Still, the Wildcats' shortage of signature victories might be their ultimate downfall. Outside of one nice stretch from late January to early February where K-State took out Missouri, Texas, and Texas A&M, there isn't much else to look at. The Wildcats must win at Oklahoma State on Tuesday and then avoid a slip-up against Colorado on Mar. 7. Not only that, but Kansas State might also have to string together a couple of wins in the Big 12 Tournament.
Texas A&M (21-8, 7-7)
Signature wins: Arizona, LSU, Texas
Other notable wins: Oklahoma State
Key losses: at Tulsa
Remaining games: at Colorado, Missouri
Breakdown: The Aggies are in a very similar position to Kansas State in that it does not have many notable wins on its résumé. However, one thing Texas A&M can say that the Wildcats cannot is that it does not have any real bad losses. Yes, it lost by 11 at Tulsa, but Tulsa is a decent squad. Still, A&M lost its only meeting against Kansas State this season, and the fact that it is only .500 in conference play comapred to K-State's 8-6 mark puts the Aggies at a slight disadvantage should it come down to these two teams for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. On the bright side, if Texas A&M is able to to win its final two games, one of which would be against Missouri, it may very well find itself on the right side of the bubble.
BIG EAST
West Virginia (20-9, 9-7)
Signature wins: Villanova, at Ohio State, 27-point win over Providence, at Georgetown
Other notable wins: Notre Dame
Key losses: None
Remaining games: DePaul, Louisville
Breakdown: Fortunately for the Mountaineers, their win at Georgetown now holds a bit more weight thanks to the Hoyas' win over Villanova this past weekend. Still, their win at Ohio State is losing steam, and their victory over Notre Dame is simply not that impressive with the Irish's struggles this year. Either way, their blowout win over 'Nova should be their ticket to the Big Dance. If West Virginia can take out Louisville on the 7th, it will be a tournament team. However, a loss to the Cardinals and an early exit in the Big East Touranment could spell some trouble for WVU.
Providence (18-11, 10-7)
Signature wins: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, swept Cincinnati
Other notable wins: Rhode Island
Key losses: 33-point loss at Connecticut, 27-point loss at West Virginia, Northeastern
Remaining games: at Villanova
Breakdown: Providence escaped Rutgers with a victory, and if it is able to win at Villanova on the 5th, it will finish 11-7 in the Big East and may very well find itself on the Selection Committee's good side. However, even with a win against 'Nova, it would help the Friars to put forth a good performance in the conference tournament to assure everyone that they are, in fact, for real.
Cincinnati (18-11, 8-8)
Signature wins: Swept Georgetown, West Virginia
Other notable wins: Notre Dame, UNLV, UAB
Key losses: Swept by Providence, 34-point loss at Marquette, 24-point loss at Syracuse
Remaining games: at South Florida, Seton Hall
Breakdown: After taking down West Virginia, it looked like the Bearcats were putting themselves on the right side of the bubble, but then they go to the Carrier Dome and get plastered by Syracuse and they are right back at square one. The main difference between Cincinnati and Providence is that the Friars swept the 'Cats during the regular season, and that not only gives them leverage should a spot be decided between these two squads, but it also assured them a winning record in Big East play. Cincy must win its final two games and then make noise in the Big East Tournament to have any chance of earnign an at-large bid now.
Georgetown (15-12, 6-10)
Signature wins: at Connecticut, Memphis, Syracuse, at Villanova
Other notable wins: 27-point win over Maryland, Providence
Key losses: Swept by Cincinnati, at Seton Hall
Remaining games: at St. John's, DePaul
Breakdown: Seriously, show me a bubble team with better quality wins than Georgetown? You really can't, which is what is going to make the Hoyas the most difficult squad for the Selection Committee to judge. They have a great win against the number one team in the nation in UConn (and it was on the road), and also have a victory over another top five squad in Memphis. Beating Villanova over the weekend certainly saved Georgetown's season, and if the Hoyas win their final two contests and have a nice showing in the Big East Tournament, they have a very good shot at finding themselves in the Big Dance.
Notre Dame (16-12, 7-9)
Signature wins: 33-point win over Louisville, at Texas, at Providence
Other notable wins: Georgetown
Key losses: at St. John's, 26-point loss at UCLA
Remaining games: Villanova, St. John's
Breakdown: Losing at Connecticut on Saturday may very well have did the Fighting Irish in. Even if Notre Dame wins its final two games, it will need to go deep into the Big East Tournament to garner an at-large bid, something I'm not even sure the Irish are capable of. Notre Dame can also do no better than .500 in conference play. Its NCAA Tournament chances are slim at best.
BIG TEN
Minnesota (20-8, 8-8)
Signature wins: Louisville, Illinois, Ohio State, Penn State, at Wisconsin
Other notable wins: 27-point win over Northwestern
Key losses: Swept by Michigan State (lost by 29 at MSU)
Remaining games: Wisconsin, Michigan
Breakdown: If you're basing on it what Minnesota has accomplished over the course of the entire season, then it should, without question, be a tournament team. However, its recent struggles (the Golden Gophers have gone 4-7 since Jan. 18) may very well have put Minnesota on the bubble, plus the fact that the Gophers currently sit at 8-8 in Big Ten play. A win over either Wisconsin or Michigan should put any bubble talk to rest, but if Minnesota fails to do so, expect the Golden Gophers to be one of the topics of discussion come Selection Sunday.
Penn State (20-9, 9-7)
Signature wins: at Michigan State, Purdue, at Illinois, Minnesota
Other notable wins: Michigan, Northwestern
Key losses: None
Remaining games: Illinois, at Iowa
Breakdown: Penn State dodged a potential disaster against Indiana this past weekend, and now it is in a great position to essentially clinch a berth in the Big Dance. The Nittany Lions probably have enough quality wins already, but completing a season sweep of Illinois would be the cherry on top. However, if Penn State does fall against Illinois, it must avoid losing at Iowa.
Michigan (18-12, 8-9)
Signature wins: Duke, UCLA, Purdue, Illinois, Penn State, Minnesota
Other notable wins: Swept Northwestern
Key losses: Swept by Ohio State and Wisconsin, at Iowa
Remaining games: at Minnesota
Breakdown: Despite being swept by two conference rivals, I think the Wolverines have done more than enough to merit themselves an NCAA Tournament berth. Still, it would be nice if Michigan was able to beat Minnesota on Mar. 7, which would give it the season sweep of the Golden Gophers (even though the Wolverines might not even need it).
Wisconsin (18-10, 9-7)
Signature wins: Illinois, Ohio State, swept Penn State and Michigan
Other notable wins: at Virginia Tech, Northwestern
Key losses: at Iowa
Remaining games: at Minnesota, Indiana
Breakdown: Sweeping Michigan probably all but clinched a spot in the NCAA Tournament for the Badgers, who also own two wins over Penn State and victories over Big Ten rivals Illinois and Ohio State on the year. Wisconsin also assured itself at least a .500 record in conference play with its win over the Wolverines on Sunday. The Badgers will more than likely be dancing.
Ohio State (18-9, 8-8)
Signature wins: Swept Michigan, Purdue, at Miami, Minnesota, Penn State
Other notable wins: Notre Dame
Key losses: Swept by Illinois, 28-point loss to West Virginia, 25-point loss at Purdue
Remaining games: at Iowa, Northwestern
Breakdown: The Buckeyes are almost an exact clone of Minnesota in that they started out the season hot but have been coming apart toward the end. Ohio State has lost four of its last five games, but if it is able to hold on and beat Iowa and Northwestern to close out, it should be fine. The Buckeyes can probably even go 1-1 over its last two contests and still feel safe come Selection Sunday thanks to their nice arsenal of signature wins.
MOUNTAIN WEST
BYU (22-6, 10-4)
Signature wins: Utah
Other notable wins: Swept San Diego State, at Utah State, New Mexico
Key losses: Swept by UNLV
Remaining games: at Wyoming, Air Force
Breakdown: Beating Utah was huge, but the Cougars still need to win their final two games of the season and avoid any slip-ups in the Mountain West Tournament to feel safe heading into Selection Sunday. Also good for BYU is that its win over New Mexico now has a bit more substance to it due to the fact that the Lobos are streaking.
PAC-10
No bubble teams.
SEC
Kentucky (19-10, 8-6)
Signature wins: Swept Tennessee, West Virginia, Florida
Other notable wins: Kansas State
Key losses: VMI
Remaining games: Georgia, at Florida
Breakdown: Kentucky missed a golden opportunity to increase its at-large chances by blowing a double-digit, second-half lead over LSU on Sunday, and now it faces two must-win games against Georgia and Florida to close out the season. If the Wildcats can win both of those games, that would give them sweeps of SEC rivals Tennessee and Florida which should be enough to carry them into the NCAA Tournament.
Tennessee (18-10, 9-5)
Signature wins: Marquette, swept Florida
Other notable wins: Georgetown, at Siena
Key losses: Swept by Kentucky
Remaining games: at South Carolina, Alabama
Breakdown: Getting a sweep of Florida was huge, but those two blowout losses to Kentucky almost nullify that accolade. The Volunteers must win at South Carolina in a bracket-buster game on the 5th and then take care of Alabama to finish out the season. Even then, Tennessee's lack of signature wins might force it to go deep into the SEC Tournament to receive an invite to the NCAAs.
South Carolina (20-7, 9-5)
Signature wins: Swept Kentucky, Florida
Other notable wins: at Baylor
Key losses: College of Charleston
Remaining games: Tennessee, at Georgia
Breakdown: Last week, I said that the Gamecocks could not afford to lose to Vanderbilt. Well, they did, and now they're in deep trouble because of it. South Carolina's résumé was pretty dull to begin with, and being 9-5 in the SEC doesn't look near as good as it would in other years. The Gamecocks now have to beat Tennessee and then defeat Georgia to have a shot at reaching the NCAAs, similar to what the Volunteers have to do. Also like the Vols, South Carolina might also have to make some noise in the conference tournament.
OTHER TEAMS FROM OTHER CONFERENCES
Butler (25-4, 15-3)
Signature wins: at Xavier, at Davidson
Other notable wins: Northwestern, UAB
Key losses: Loyola (Illinois)
Remaining games: None
Breakdown: Butler won the Horizon League regular-season title, and more than likely, the Bulldogs will be playing in the NCAA Tournament whether or not they win their conference tourney. However, Butler cannot afford to lose in its first round game. Even in that scenario, the Bulldogs will still probably be safe, but you can never be too cautious.
Dayton (24-5, 10-4)
Signature wins: at Marquette, Xavier
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: at Massachusetts
Remaining games: at Xavier, Duquesne
Breakdown: The Flyers saved their at-large chances by beating Temple and avoiding a three-game losing streak on Saturday, but there is still more work to do. Dayton may very well have to complete the season sweep of Xavier and then beat Duquesne to earn an invite to the Big Dance. A second win over Xavier would probably do it, but if not, the Flyers are going to have to at least get to the Atlantic-10 Championship Game to get in.
Davidson (24-6, 17-2)
Signature wins: West Virginia
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: 18-point loss to Citadel
Remaining games: at Elon
Breakdown: Unlike Butler and Dayton, Davidson doesn't have the luxury of having a couple of solid signature wins to help its NCAA Tournament chances. Instead, the Wildcats have one nice win over unranked West Virginia, and that's it. Davidson most likely has to win the Southern League Tournament to get into the Dance, but if Stephen Curry is up to the challenge, that shouldn't be a problem.
Saint Mary's (24-5, 10-4)
Signature wins: None
Other notable wins: Providence, at San Diego State, Utah State
Key losses: Swept by Gonzaga, 18-point losses at Santa Clara and home against Portland
Remaining games: None
Breakdown: How much the Selection Committee will take Patrick Mills' injury into account is the big question here, but still, one player can only take a college team so far, and the Gaels just don't have the résumé deserving of an NCAA Tournament berth. They will probably have to win the WAC Tourney to get in.
Boston College (20-9, 8-6)
Signature wins: at North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, at Maryland
Other notable wins: Virginia Tech, UAB, Providence
Key losses: at Saint Louis, Harvard, swept by Miami
Remaining games: at North Carolina State, Georgia Tech
Breakdown: The Eagles are in the same position they were at the last bubble watch, as they have not played a game over the past week. Boston College should have put together enough quality wins to be safe come Selection Sunday, its wins over North Carolina and Duke obviously the most notable. Still, BC better avoid getting upset by either NC State or Georgia Tech, or its at-large chances might take a bit of a hit.
Miami (17-10, 6-8)
Signature wins: Wake Forest, swept Boston College, at Kentucky, Florida State
Other notable wins: Maryland
Key losses: None
Remaining games: at Georgia Tech, North Carolina State
Breakdown: The Hurricanes took care of business against Virginia and now must take out Georgia Tech and NC State to finish .500 in the ACC. Miami probably has enough signature wins to sneak into the NCAA Tournament with an 8-8 record in conference play, but it would behoove the 'Canes to have a good showing in the ACC Tournament to secure themselves a spot.
Virginia Tech (17-11, 7-7)
Signature wins: at Wake Forest, at Clemson, Boston College, at Miami
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: at Georgia, at Virginia
Remaining games: North Carolina, at Florida State
Breakdown: Virginia Tech could have clinched a spot in the Big Dance had it beaten Duke this past weekend, but it fell just short, and it doesn't get any easier, as the Hokies must now gear up for North Carolina and FSU. A win over either of those two teams would most likely put VT in the Dance, especially if it is able to defeat the Tar Heels, which would probably guarantee the Hokies a berth in the field of 65. However, if Virginia Tech falls short in both contests, it will have to put forth some kind of performance in the ACC Tournament to earn an invite.
Maryland (18-10, 7-7)
Signature wins: North Carolina, Michigan State, Miami
Other notable wins: Michigan, Virginia Tech
Key losses: Morgan State, swept by Duke (lost by 41 at Duke), 29-point loss to Clemson, 27-point loss to Georgetown
Remaining games: Wake Forest, at Virginia
Breakdown: The Terrapins have some very nice wins on their résumé, particularly the two against North Carolina and Michigan State. Their win over Michigan also holds a bit more weight now, but the question is whether or not all of the ugly losses Maryland has endured will overshadow the bright side of their case. If the Terps beat Wake Forest on Tuesday, they are as good as in, but if they fall to the Demon Deacons, they will have to go on a nice run in the ACC Tourney to reach the NCAAs.
BIG 12
Kansas State (20-9, 8-6)
Signature wins: Missouri, at Texas
Other notable wins: at Texas A&M
Key losses: at Iowa, at Oregon, 22-point loss at Nebraska
Remaining games: at Oklahoma State, Colorado
Breakdown: Kansas State is a classic, classic bubble team. It has a very solid overall record, a respectable in-conference record, and a few quality wins scattered about its résumé. Still, the Wildcats' shortage of signature victories might be their ultimate downfall. Outside of one nice stretch from late January to early February where K-State took out Missouri, Texas, and Texas A&M, there isn't much else to look at. The Wildcats must win at Oklahoma State on Tuesday and then avoid a slip-up against Colorado on Mar. 7. Not only that, but Kansas State might also have to string together a couple of wins in the Big 12 Tournament.
Texas A&M (21-8, 7-7)
Signature wins: Arizona, LSU, Texas
Other notable wins: Oklahoma State
Key losses: at Tulsa
Remaining games: at Colorado, Missouri
Breakdown: The Aggies are in a very similar position to Kansas State in that it does not have many notable wins on its résumé. However, one thing Texas A&M can say that the Wildcats cannot is that it does not have any real bad losses. Yes, it lost by 11 at Tulsa, but Tulsa is a decent squad. Still, A&M lost its only meeting against Kansas State this season, and the fact that it is only .500 in conference play comapred to K-State's 8-6 mark puts the Aggies at a slight disadvantage should it come down to these two teams for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. On the bright side, if Texas A&M is able to to win its final two games, one of which would be against Missouri, it may very well find itself on the right side of the bubble.
BIG EAST
West Virginia (20-9, 9-7)
Signature wins: Villanova, at Ohio State, 27-point win over Providence, at Georgetown
Other notable wins: Notre Dame
Key losses: None
Remaining games: DePaul, Louisville
Breakdown: Fortunately for the Mountaineers, their win at Georgetown now holds a bit more weight thanks to the Hoyas' win over Villanova this past weekend. Still, their win at Ohio State is losing steam, and their victory over Notre Dame is simply not that impressive with the Irish's struggles this year. Either way, their blowout win over 'Nova should be their ticket to the Big Dance. If West Virginia can take out Louisville on the 7th, it will be a tournament team. However, a loss to the Cardinals and an early exit in the Big East Touranment could spell some trouble for WVU.
Providence (18-11, 10-7)
Signature wins: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, swept Cincinnati
Other notable wins: Rhode Island
Key losses: 33-point loss at Connecticut, 27-point loss at West Virginia, Northeastern
Remaining games: at Villanova
Breakdown: Providence escaped Rutgers with a victory, and if it is able to win at Villanova on the 5th, it will finish 11-7 in the Big East and may very well find itself on the Selection Committee's good side. However, even with a win against 'Nova, it would help the Friars to put forth a good performance in the conference tournament to assure everyone that they are, in fact, for real.
Cincinnati (18-11, 8-8)
Signature wins: Swept Georgetown, West Virginia
Other notable wins: Notre Dame, UNLV, UAB
Key losses: Swept by Providence, 34-point loss at Marquette, 24-point loss at Syracuse
Remaining games: at South Florida, Seton Hall
Breakdown: After taking down West Virginia, it looked like the Bearcats were putting themselves on the right side of the bubble, but then they go to the Carrier Dome and get plastered by Syracuse and they are right back at square one. The main difference between Cincinnati and Providence is that the Friars swept the 'Cats during the regular season, and that not only gives them leverage should a spot be decided between these two squads, but it also assured them a winning record in Big East play. Cincy must win its final two games and then make noise in the Big East Tournament to have any chance of earnign an at-large bid now.
Georgetown (15-12, 6-10)
Signature wins: at Connecticut, Memphis, Syracuse, at Villanova
Other notable wins: 27-point win over Maryland, Providence
Key losses: Swept by Cincinnati, at Seton Hall
Remaining games: at St. John's, DePaul
Breakdown: Seriously, show me a bubble team with better quality wins than Georgetown? You really can't, which is what is going to make the Hoyas the most difficult squad for the Selection Committee to judge. They have a great win against the number one team in the nation in UConn (and it was on the road), and also have a victory over another top five squad in Memphis. Beating Villanova over the weekend certainly saved Georgetown's season, and if the Hoyas win their final two contests and have a nice showing in the Big East Tournament, they have a very good shot at finding themselves in the Big Dance.
Notre Dame (16-12, 7-9)
Signature wins: 33-point win over Louisville, at Texas, at Providence
Other notable wins: Georgetown
Key losses: at St. John's, 26-point loss at UCLA
Remaining games: Villanova, St. John's
Breakdown: Losing at Connecticut on Saturday may very well have did the Fighting Irish in. Even if Notre Dame wins its final two games, it will need to go deep into the Big East Tournament to garner an at-large bid, something I'm not even sure the Irish are capable of. Notre Dame can also do no better than .500 in conference play. Its NCAA Tournament chances are slim at best.
BIG TEN
Minnesota (20-8, 8-8)
Signature wins: Louisville, Illinois, Ohio State, Penn State, at Wisconsin
Other notable wins: 27-point win over Northwestern
Key losses: Swept by Michigan State (lost by 29 at MSU)
Remaining games: Wisconsin, Michigan
Breakdown: If you're basing on it what Minnesota has accomplished over the course of the entire season, then it should, without question, be a tournament team. However, its recent struggles (the Golden Gophers have gone 4-7 since Jan. 18) may very well have put Minnesota on the bubble, plus the fact that the Gophers currently sit at 8-8 in Big Ten play. A win over either Wisconsin or Michigan should put any bubble talk to rest, but if Minnesota fails to do so, expect the Golden Gophers to be one of the topics of discussion come Selection Sunday.
Penn State (20-9, 9-7)
Signature wins: at Michigan State, Purdue, at Illinois, Minnesota
Other notable wins: Michigan, Northwestern
Key losses: None
Remaining games: Illinois, at Iowa
Breakdown: Penn State dodged a potential disaster against Indiana this past weekend, and now it is in a great position to essentially clinch a berth in the Big Dance. The Nittany Lions probably have enough quality wins already, but completing a season sweep of Illinois would be the cherry on top. However, if Penn State does fall against Illinois, it must avoid losing at Iowa.
Michigan (18-12, 8-9)
Signature wins: Duke, UCLA, Purdue, Illinois, Penn State, Minnesota
Other notable wins: Swept Northwestern
Key losses: Swept by Ohio State and Wisconsin, at Iowa
Remaining games: at Minnesota
Breakdown: Despite being swept by two conference rivals, I think the Wolverines have done more than enough to merit themselves an NCAA Tournament berth. Still, it would be nice if Michigan was able to beat Minnesota on Mar. 7, which would give it the season sweep of the Golden Gophers (even though the Wolverines might not even need it).
Wisconsin (18-10, 9-7)
Signature wins: Illinois, Ohio State, swept Penn State and Michigan
Other notable wins: at Virginia Tech, Northwestern
Key losses: at Iowa
Remaining games: at Minnesota, Indiana
Breakdown: Sweeping Michigan probably all but clinched a spot in the NCAA Tournament for the Badgers, who also own two wins over Penn State and victories over Big Ten rivals Illinois and Ohio State on the year. Wisconsin also assured itself at least a .500 record in conference play with its win over the Wolverines on Sunday. The Badgers will more than likely be dancing.
Ohio State (18-9, 8-8)
Signature wins: Swept Michigan, Purdue, at Miami, Minnesota, Penn State
Other notable wins: Notre Dame
Key losses: Swept by Illinois, 28-point loss to West Virginia, 25-point loss at Purdue
Remaining games: at Iowa, Northwestern
Breakdown: The Buckeyes are almost an exact clone of Minnesota in that they started out the season hot but have been coming apart toward the end. Ohio State has lost four of its last five games, but if it is able to hold on and beat Iowa and Northwestern to close out, it should be fine. The Buckeyes can probably even go 1-1 over its last two contests and still feel safe come Selection Sunday thanks to their nice arsenal of signature wins.
MOUNTAIN WEST
BYU (22-6, 10-4)
Signature wins: Utah
Other notable wins: Swept San Diego State, at Utah State, New Mexico
Key losses: Swept by UNLV
Remaining games: at Wyoming, Air Force
Breakdown: Beating Utah was huge, but the Cougars still need to win their final two games of the season and avoid any slip-ups in the Mountain West Tournament to feel safe heading into Selection Sunday. Also good for BYU is that its win over New Mexico now has a bit more substance to it due to the fact that the Lobos are streaking.
PAC-10
No bubble teams.
SEC
Kentucky (19-10, 8-6)
Signature wins: Swept Tennessee, West Virginia, Florida
Other notable wins: Kansas State
Key losses: VMI
Remaining games: Georgia, at Florida
Breakdown: Kentucky missed a golden opportunity to increase its at-large chances by blowing a double-digit, second-half lead over LSU on Sunday, and now it faces two must-win games against Georgia and Florida to close out the season. If the Wildcats can win both of those games, that would give them sweeps of SEC rivals Tennessee and Florida which should be enough to carry them into the NCAA Tournament.
Tennessee (18-10, 9-5)
Signature wins: Marquette, swept Florida
Other notable wins: Georgetown, at Siena
Key losses: Swept by Kentucky
Remaining games: at South Carolina, Alabama
Breakdown: Getting a sweep of Florida was huge, but those two blowout losses to Kentucky almost nullify that accolade. The Volunteers must win at South Carolina in a bracket-buster game on the 5th and then take care of Alabama to finish out the season. Even then, Tennessee's lack of signature wins might force it to go deep into the SEC Tournament to receive an invite to the NCAAs.
South Carolina (20-7, 9-5)
Signature wins: Swept Kentucky, Florida
Other notable wins: at Baylor
Key losses: College of Charleston
Remaining games: Tennessee, at Georgia
Breakdown: Last week, I said that the Gamecocks could not afford to lose to Vanderbilt. Well, they did, and now they're in deep trouble because of it. South Carolina's résumé was pretty dull to begin with, and being 9-5 in the SEC doesn't look near as good as it would in other years. The Gamecocks now have to beat Tennessee and then defeat Georgia to have a shot at reaching the NCAAs, similar to what the Volunteers have to do. Also like the Vols, South Carolina might also have to make some noise in the conference tournament.
OTHER TEAMS FROM OTHER CONFERENCES
Butler (25-4, 15-3)
Signature wins: at Xavier, at Davidson
Other notable wins: Northwestern, UAB
Key losses: Loyola (Illinois)
Remaining games: None
Breakdown: Butler won the Horizon League regular-season title, and more than likely, the Bulldogs will be playing in the NCAA Tournament whether or not they win their conference tourney. However, Butler cannot afford to lose in its first round game. Even in that scenario, the Bulldogs will still probably be safe, but you can never be too cautious.
Dayton (24-5, 10-4)
Signature wins: at Marquette, Xavier
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: at Massachusetts
Remaining games: at Xavier, Duquesne
Breakdown: The Flyers saved their at-large chances by beating Temple and avoiding a three-game losing streak on Saturday, but there is still more work to do. Dayton may very well have to complete the season sweep of Xavier and then beat Duquesne to earn an invite to the Big Dance. A second win over Xavier would probably do it, but if not, the Flyers are going to have to at least get to the Atlantic-10 Championship Game to get in.
Davidson (24-6, 17-2)
Signature wins: West Virginia
Other notable wins: None
Key losses: 18-point loss to Citadel
Remaining games: at Elon
Breakdown: Unlike Butler and Dayton, Davidson doesn't have the luxury of having a couple of solid signature wins to help its NCAA Tournament chances. Instead, the Wildcats have one nice win over unranked West Virginia, and that's it. Davidson most likely has to win the Southern League Tournament to get into the Dance, but if Stephen Curry is up to the challenge, that shouldn't be a problem.
Saint Mary's (24-5, 10-4)
Signature wins: None
Other notable wins: Providence, at San Diego State, Utah State
Key losses: Swept by Gonzaga, 18-point losses at Santa Clara and home against Portland
Remaining games: None
Breakdown: How much the Selection Committee will take Patrick Mills' injury into account is the big question here, but still, one player can only take a college team so far, and the Gaels just don't have the résumé deserving of an NCAA Tournament berth. They will probably have to win the WAC Tourney to get in.
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